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Register a new userThe atmospheric impact trajectory of asteroid 2014 AA
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Added by
Davide Farnocchia Dr
Publication date
2016
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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Near-Earth asteroid 2014 AA entered the Earths atmosphere on 2014 January 2, only 21 hours after being discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey. In this paper we compute the trajectory of 2014 AA by combining the available optical astrometry, seven ground-based observations over 69 minutes, and the International Monitoring system detection of the atmospheric impact infrasonic airwaves in a least-squares orbit estimation filter. The combination of these two sources of observations results in a tremendous improvement in the orbit uncertainties. The impact time is 3:05 UT with a 1-sigma uncertainty of 6 min, while the impact location corresponds to a west longitude of 44.7 deg and a latitude of 13.1 deg with a 1-sigma uncertainty of 140 km. The minimum impact energy estimated from the infrasound data and the impact velocity result in an estimated minimum mass of 22.6 t. By propagating the trajectory of 2014 AA backwards we find that the only window for finding precovery observations is for the three days before its discovery.
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The June 2, 2018, impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroids position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireballs main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. 23 meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as a HED polymict breccia derived from howardite, cumulate and basaltic eucrite, and diogenite lithologies. Before impact, 2018 LA was a solid rock of about 156 cm diameter with high bulk density about 2.85 g/cm3, a relatively low albedo pV about 0.25, no significant opposition effect on the asteroid brightness, and an impact kinetic energy of about 0.2 kt. The orbit of 2018 LA is consistent with an origin at Vesta (or its Vestoids) and delivery into an Earth-impacting orbit via the nu_6 resonance. The impact that ejected 2018 LA in an orbit towards Earth occurred 22.8 +/- 3.8 Ma ago. Zircons record a concordant U-Pb age of 4563 +/- 11 Ma and a consistent 207Pb/206Pb age of 4563 +/- 6 Ma. A much younger Pb-Pb phosphate resetting age of 4234 +/- 41 Ma was found. From this impact chronology, we discuss what is the possible source crater of Motopi Pan and the age of Vestas Veneneia impact basin.
ESA and NASA maintain asteroid hazard lists that contain all known asteroids with a non zero chance of colliding with the Earth in the future. Some software tools exist that are, either, capable of calculating the impact points of those asteroids, or that can estimate the impact effects of a given impact incident. However, no single tool is available that combines both aspects and enables a comprehensive risk analysis. The question is, thus, whether tools that can calculate impact location may be used to obtain a qualitative understanding of the asteroid impact risk distribution. To answer this question, two impact risk distributions that control for impact effect modelling were generated and compared. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool, in conjunction with the freely available software OrbFit, was used to project the impact probabilities of listed asteroids with a minimum diameter of 30 m onto the surface of the Earth representing a random sample (15% of all objects) of the hazard list. The resulting 261 impact corridors were visualized on a global map. Furthermore, the impact corridors were combined with Earth population data to estimate the simplified risk (without impact effects) and advanced risk (with impact effects) associated with the direct asteroid impacts that each nation faces from present to 2100 based on this sample. The relationship between risk and population size was examined for the 40 most populous countries and it was apparent that population size is a good proxy for relative risk. The advanced and simplified risk distributions were compared and the alteration of the results based on the introduction of physical impact effects was discussed. Population remained a valid proxy for relative impact risk, but the inclusion of impact effects resulted in significantly different risks, especially when considered at the national level.
Photometric observations of asteroid (596) Scheila were obtained during and after its 2010 outburst. The estimated radius of the body (spherical approximation of the asteroidal body) was 51.2 km and 50.67 km for different methods. The ejected dust mass from the asteroid ranged from 2.5*10e7 to 3.4*10^7 kg for different methods. An impact mechanism for triggering Scheilas activity is discussed. A few days before the impact, Scheila passed through the corridors of two potential cometary streams.
In this paper we perform an assessment of the 2880 Earth impact risk for asteroid (29075) 1950 DA. To obtain reliable predictions we analyze the contribution of the observational dataset and the astrometric treatment, the numerical error in the long-term integration, and the different accelerations acting on the asteroid. The main source of uncertainty is the Yarkovsky effect, which we statistically model starting from 1950 DAs available physical characterization, astrometry, and dynamical properties. Before the release of 2012 radar data, this modeling suggests that 1950 DA has 99% likelihood of being a retrograde rotator. By using a 7-dimensional Monte Carlo sampling we map 1950 DAs uncertainty region to the 2880 close approach b-plane and find a 5 x 10^-4 impact probability. With the recently released 2012 radar observations, the direct rotation is definitely ruled out and the impact probability decreases to 2.5 x 10^-4.
Comet P/2010A2 LINEAR is a good candidate for membership with the Main Belt Comet family. It was observed with several telescopes (ESO NTT, La Silla; Gemini North, Mauna Kea; UH 2.2m, Mauna Kea) from 14 Jan. until 19 Feb. 2010 in order to characterize and monitor it and its very unusual dust tail, which appears almost fully detached from the nucleus; the head of the tail includes two narrow arcs forming a cross. The immediate surroundings of the nucleus were found dust-free, which allowed an estimate of the nucleus radius of 80-90m. A model of the thermal evolution indicates that such a small nucleus could not maintain any ice content for more than a few million years on its current orbit, ruling out ice sublimation dust ejection mechanism. Rotational spin-up and electrostatic dust levitations were also rejected, leaving an impact with a smaller body as the favoured hypothesis, and ruling out the cometary nature of the object. The impact is further supported by the analysis of the tail structure. Finston-Probstein dynamical dust modelling indicates the tail was produced by a single burst of dust emission. More advanced models, independently indicate that this burst populated a hollow cone with a half-opening angle alpha~40degr and with an ejection velocity v_max ~ 0.2m/s, where the small dust grains fill the observed tail, while the arcs are foreshortened sections of the burst cone. The dust grains in the tail are measured to have radii between a=1-20mm, with a differential size distribution proportional to a^(-3.44 +/- 0.08). The dust contained in the tail is estimated to at least 8x10^8kg, which would form a sphere of 40m radius. Analysing these results in the framework of crater physics, we conclude that a gravity-controlled crater would have grown up to ~100m radius, i.e. comparable to the size of the body. The non-disruption of the body suggest this was an oblique impact.
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