Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userThe k-statistics approach to epidemiology
287
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
A great variety of complex physical, natural and artificial systems are governed by statistical distributions, which often follow a standard exponential function in the bulk, while their tail obeys the Pareto power law. The recently introduced $kappa$-statistics framework predicts distribution functions with this feature. A growing number of applications in different fields of investigation are beginning to prove the relevance and effectiveness of $kappa$-statistics in fitting empirical data. In this paper, we use $kappa$-statistics to formulate a statistical approach for epidemiological analysis. We validate the theoretical results by fitting the derived $kappa$-Weibull distributions with data from the plague pandemic of 1417 in Florence as well as data from the COVID-19 pandemic in China over the entire cycle that concludes in April 16, 2020. As further validation of the proposed approach we present a more systematic analysis of COVID-19 data from countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom, obtaining very good agreement between theoretical predictions and empirical observations. For these countries we also study the entire first cycle of the pandemic which extends until the end of July 2020. The fact that both the data of the Florence plague and those of the Covid-19 pandemic are successfully described by the same theoretical model, even though the two events are caused by different diseases and they are separated by more than 600 years, is evidence that the $kappa$-Weibull model has universal features.
rate research
Read More
In exponentially proliferating populations of microbes, the population typically doubles at a rate less than the average doubling time of a single-cell due to variability at the single-cell level. It is known that the distribution of generation times obtained from a single lineage is, in general, insufficient to determine a populations growth rate. Is there an explicit relationship between observables obtained from a single lineage and the population growth rate? We show that a populations growth rate can be represented in terms of averages over isolated lineages. This lineage representation is related to a large deviation principle that is a generic feature of exponentially proliferating populations. Due to the large deviation structure of growing populations, the number of lineages needed to obtain an accurate estimate of the growth rate depends exponentially on the duration of the lineages, leading to a non-monotonic convergence of the estimate, which we verify in both synthetic and experimental data sets.
The impact of mitigation or control measures on an epidemics can be estimated by fitting the parameters of a compartmental model to empirical data, and running the model forward with modified parameters that account for a specific measure. This approach has several drawbacks, stemming from biases or lack of availability of data and instability of parameter estimates. Here we take the opposite approach -- that we call reverse epidemiology. Given the data, we reconstruct backward in time an ensemble of networks of contacts, and we assess the impact of measures on that specific realization of the contagion process. This approach is robust because it only depends on parameters that describe the evolution of the disease within one individual (e.g. latency time) and not on parameters that describe the spread of the epidemics in a population. Using this method, we assess the impact of preventive quarantine on the ongoing outbreak of Covid-19 in Italy. This gives an estimate of how many infected could have been avoided had preventive quarantine been enforced at a given time.
Selection in a time-periodic environment is modeled via the continuous-time two-player replicator dynamics, which for symmetric pay-offs reduces to the Fisher equation of mathematical genetics. For a sufficiently rapid and cyclic [fine-grained] environment, the time-averaged population frequencies are shown to obey a replicator dynamics with a non-linear fitness that is induced by environmental changes. The non-linear terms in the fitness emerge due to populations tracking their time-dependent environment. These terms can induce a stable polymorphism, though they do not spoil the polymorphism that exists already without them. In this sense polymorphic populations are more robust with respect to their time-dependent environments. The overall fitness of the problem is still given by its time-averaged value, but the emergence of polymorphism during genetic selection can be accompanied by decreasing mean fitness of the population. The impact of the uncovered polymorphism scenario on the models of diversity is examplified via the rock-paper-scissors dynamics, and also via the prisoners dilemma in a time-periodic environment.
In this chapter, an application of Mathematical Epidemiology to crop vector-borne diseases is presented to investigate the interactions between crops, vectors, and virus. The main illustrative example is the cassava mosaic disease (CMD). The CMD virus has two routes of infection: through vectors and also through infected crops. In the field, the main tool to control CMD spreading is roguing. The presented biological model is sufficiently generic and the same methodology can be adapted to other crops or crop vector-borne diseases. After an introduction where a brief history of crop diseases and useful information on Cassava and CMD is given, we develop and study a compartmental temporal model, taking into account the crop growth and the vector dynamics. A brief qualitative analysis of the model is provided,i.e., existence and uniqueness of a solution,existence of a disease-free equilibrium and existence of an endemic equilibrium. We also provide conditions for local (global) asymptotic stability and show that a Hopf Bifurcation may occur, for instance, when diseased plants are removed. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate all possible behaviors. Finally, we discuss the theoretical and numerical outputs in terms of crop protection.
A general theory of top-down cascades in complex networks is described which explains two similar types of perturbation amplifications in the complex networks of business supply chains (the `bullwhip effect) and ecological food webs (trophic cascades). The dependence of the strength of the effects on the interaction strength and covariance in the dynamics as well as the graph structure allows both explanation and prediction of widely recognized effects in each type of system.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
