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Register a new userA large deviation principle linking lineage statistics to fitness in microbial populations
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In exponentially proliferating populations of microbes, the population typically doubles at a rate less than the average doubling time of a single-cell due to variability at the single-cell level. It is known that the distribution of generation times obtained from a single lineage is, in general, insufficient to determine a populations growth rate. Is there an explicit relationship between observables obtained from a single lineage and the population growth rate? We show that a populations growth rate can be represented in terms of averages over isolated lineages. This lineage representation is related to a large deviation principle that is a generic feature of exponentially proliferating populations. Due to the large deviation structure of growing populations, the number of lineages needed to obtain an accurate estimate of the growth rate depends exponentially on the duration of the lineages, leading to a non-monotonic convergence of the estimate, which we verify in both synthetic and experimental data sets.
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Microbial metabolic networks perform the basic function of harvesting energy from nutrients to generate the work and free energy required for survival, growth and replication. The robust physiological outcomes they generate across vastly different organisms in spite of major environmental and genetic differences represent an especially remarkable trait. Most notably, it suggests that metabolic activity in bacteria may follow universal principles, the search for which is a long-standing issue. Most theoretical approaches to modeling metabolism assume that cells optimize specific evolutionarily-motivated objective functions (like their growth rate) under general physico-chemical or regulatory constraints. While conceptually and practically useful in many situations, the idea that certain objectives are optimized is hard to validate in data. Moreover, it is not clear how optimality can be reconciled with the degree of single-cell variability observed within microbial populations. To shed light on these issues, we propose here an inverse modeling framework that connects fitness to variability through the Maximum-Entropy guided inference of metabolic flux distributions from data. While no clear optimization emerges, we find that, as the medium gets richer, Escherichia coli populations slowly approach the theoretically optimal performance defined by minimal reduction of phenotypic variability at given mean growth rate. Inferred flux distributions provide multiple biological insights, including on metabolic reactions that are experimentally inaccessible. These results suggest that bacterial metabolism is crucially shaped by a population-level trade-off between fitness and cell-to-cell heterogeneity.
This chapter gives a synopsis of recent approaches to model and analyse the evolution of microbial populations under selection. The first part reviews two population genetic models of Lenskis long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli, where models aim at explaining the observed curve of the evolution of the mean fitness. The second part describes a model of a host-pathogen system where the population of pathogenes experiences balancing selection, migration, and mutation, as motivated by observations of the genetic diversity of HCMV (the human cytomegalovirus) across hosts.
Darwinian evolution can be modeled in general terms as a flow in the space of fitness (i.e. reproductive rate) distributions. In the diffusion approximation, Tsimring et al. have showed that this flow admits fitness wave solutions: Gaussian-shape fitness distributions moving towards higher fitness values at constant speed. Here we show more generally that evolving fitness distributions are attracted to a one-parameter family of distributions with a fixed parabolic relationship between skewness and kurtosis. Unlike fitness waves, this statistical pattern encompasses both positive and negative (a.k.a. purifying) selection and is not restricted to rapidly adapting populations. Moreover we find that the mean fitness of a population under the selection of pre-existing variation is a power-law function of time, as observed in microbiological evolution experiments but at variance with fitness wave theory. At the conceptual level, our results can be viewed as the resolution of the dynamic insufficiency of Fishers fundamental theorem of natural selection. Our predictions are in good agreement with numerical simulations.
Microorganisms live in environments that inevitably fluctuate between mild and harsh conditions. As harsh conditions may cause extinctions, the rate at which fluctuations occur can shape microbial communities and their diversity, but we still lack an intuition on how. Here, we build a mathematical model describing two microbial species living in an environment where substrate supplies randomly switch between abundant and scarce. We then vary the rate of switching as well as different properties of the interacting species, and measure the probability of the weaker species driving the stronger one extinct. We find that this probability increases with the strength of demographic noise under harsh conditions and peaks at either low, high, or intermediate switching rates depending on both species ability to withstand the harsh environment. This complex relationship shows why finding patterns between environmental fluctuations and diversity has historically been difficult. In parameter ranges where the fittest species was most likely to be excluded, however, the beta diversity in larger communities also peaked. In sum, how environmental fluctuations affect interactions between a few species pairs predicts their effect on the beta diversity of the whole community.
We study a minimal model for the growth of a phenotypically heterogeneous population of cells subject to a fluctuating environment in which they can replicate (by exploiting available resources) and modify their phenotype within a given landscape (thereby exploring novel configurations). The model displays an exploration-exploitation trade-off whose specifics depend on the statistics of the environment. Most notably, the phenotypic distribution corresponding to maximum population fitness (i.e. growth rate) requires a non-zero exploration rate when the magnitude of environmental fluctuations changes randomly over time, while a purely exploitative strategy turns out to be optimal in two-state environments, independently of the statistics of switching times. We obtain analytical insight into the limiting cases of very fast and very slow exploration rates by directly linking population growth to the features of the environment.
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