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We analyze novel portfolio liquidation games with self-exciting order flow. Both the N-player game and the mean-field game are considered. We assume that players trading activities have an impact on the dynamics of future market order arrivals thereby generating an additional transient price impact. Given the strategies of her competitors each player solves a mean-field control problem. We characterize open-loop Nash equilibria in both games in terms of a novel mean-field FBSDE system with unknown terminal condition. Under a weak interaction condition we prove that the FBSDE systems have unique solutions. Using a novel sufficient maximum principle that does not require convexity of the cost function we finally prove that the solution of the FBSDE systems do indeed provide existence and uniqueness of open-loop Nash equilibria.
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We consider a mean field game (MFG) of optimal portfolio liquidation under asymmetric information. We prove that the solution to the MFG can be characterized in terms of a FBSDE with possibly singular terminal condition on the backward component or, equivalently, in terms of a FBSDE with finite terminal value, yet singular driver. Extending the method of continuation to linear-quadratic FBSDE with singular driver we prove that the MFG has a unique solution. Our existence and uniqueness result allows to prove that the MFG with possibly singular terminal condition can be approximated by a sequence of MFGs with finite terminal values.
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Based on a rough path foundation, we develop a model-free approach to stochastic portfolio theory (SPT). Our approach allows to handle significantly more general portfolios compared to previous model-free approaches based on Follmer integration. Without the assumption of any underlying probabilistic model, we prove pathwise Master formulae analogous to those of classical SPT, describing the growth of wealth processes associated to functionally generated portfolios relative to the market portfolio. We show that the appropriately scaled asymptotic growth rate of a far reaching generalization of Covers universal portfolio based on controlled paths coincides with that of the best retrospectively chosen portfolio within this class. We provide several novel results concerning rough integration, and highlight the advantages of the rough path approach by considering (non-functionally generated) log-optimal portfolios in an ergodic It^o diffusion setting.
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