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Register a new userConstrained-Order Prophet Inequalities
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Added by
Makis Arsenis
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Free order prophet inequalities bound the ratio between the expected value obtained by two parties each selecting a value from a set of independent random variables: a prophet who knows the value of each variable and may select the maximum one, and a gambler who is free to choose the order in which to observe the values but must select one of them immediately after observing it, without knowing what values will be sampled for the unobserved variables. It is known that the gambler can always ensure an expected payoff at least $0.669dots$ times as great as that of the prophet. In fact, there exists a threshold stopping rule which guarantees a gambler-to-prophet ratio of at least $1-frac1e=0.632dots$. In contrast, if the gambler must observe the values in a predetermined order, the tight bound for the gambler-to-prophet ratio is $1/2$. In this work we investigate a model that interpolates between these two extremes. We assume there is a predefined set of permutations, and the gambler is free to choose the order of observation to be any one of these predefined permutations. Surprisingly, we show that even when only two orderings are allowed---namely, the forward and reverse orderings---the gambler-to-prophet ratio improves to $varphi^{-1}=0.618dots$, the inverse of the golden ratio. As the number of allowed permutations grows beyond 2, a striking double plateau phenomenon emerges: after increasing from $0.5$ to $varphi^{-1}$, the gambler-to-prophet ratio achievable by threshold stopping rules does not exceed $varphi^{-1}+o(1)$ until the number of allowed permutations grows to $O(log n)$. The ratio reaches $1-frac1e-varepsilon$ for a suitably chosen set of $O(text{poly}(varepsilon^{-1})cdotlog n)$ permutations and does not exceed $1-frac1e$ even when the full set of $n!$ permutations is allowed.
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Consider a gambler who observes a sequence of independent, non-negative random numbers and is allowed to stop the sequence at any time, claiming a reward equal to the most recent observation. The famous prophet inequality of Krengel, Sucheston, and Garling asserts that a gambler who knows the distribution of each random variable can achieve at least half as much reward, in expectation, as a prophet who knows the sampled values of each random variable and can choose the largest one. We generalize this result to the setting in which the gambler and the prophet are allowed to make more than one selection, subject to a matroid constraint. We show that the gambler can still achieve at least half as much reward as the prophet; this result is the best possible, since it is known that the ratio cannot be improved even in the original prophet inequality, which corresponds to the special case of rank-one matroids. Generalizing the result still further, we show that under an intersection of p matroid constraints, the prophets reward exceeds the gamblers by a factor of at most O(p), and this factor is also tight. Beyond their interest as theorems about pure online algorithms or optimal stopping rules, these results also have applications to mechanism design. Our results imply improved bounds on the ability of sequential posted-price mechanisms to approximate Bayesian optimal mechanisms in both single-parameter and multi-parameter settings. In particular, our results imply the first efficiently computable constant-factor approximations to the Bayesian optimal revenue in certain multi-parameter settings.
In a classical online decision problem, a decision-maker who is trying to maximize her value inspects a sequence of arriving items to learn their values (drawn from known distributions), and decides when to stop the process by taking the current item. The goal is to prove a prophet inequality: that she can do approximately as well as a prophet with foreknowledge of all the values. In this work, we investigate this problem when the values are allowed to be correlated. Since non-trivial guarantees are impossible for arbitrary correlations, we consider a natural linear correlation structure introduced by Bateni et al. [ESA 2015] as a generalization of the common-base value model of Chawla et al. [GEB 2015]. A key challenge is that threshold-based algorithms, which are commonly used for prophet inequalities, no longer guarantee good performance for linear correlations. We relate this roadblock to another augmentations challenge that might be of independent interest: many existing prophet inequality algorithms are not robust to slight increase in the values of the arriving items. We leverage this intuition to prove bounds (matching up to constant factors) that decay gracefully with the amount of correlation of the arriving items. We extend these results to the case of selecting multiple items by designing a new $(1+o(1))$ approximation ratio algorithm that is robust to augmentations.
The rich literature on online Bayesian selection problems has long focused on so-called prophet inequalities, which compare the gain of an online algorithm to that of a prophet who knows the future. An equally-natural, though significantly less well-studied benchmark is the optimum online algorithm, which may be omnipotent (i.e., computationally-unbounded), but not omniscient. What is the computational complexity of the optimum online? How well can a polynomial-time algorithm approximate it? We study the above questions for the online stochastic maximum-weight matching problem under vertex arrivals. For this problem, a number of $1/2$-competitive algorithms are known against optimum offline. This is the best possible ratio for this problem, as it generalizes the original single-item prophet inequality problem. We present a polynomial-time algorithm which approximates the optimal online algorithm within a factor of $0.51$ -- beating the best-possible prophet inequality. In contrast, we show that it is PSPACE-hard to approximate this problem within some constant $alpha < 1$.
We study a continuous and infinite time horizon counterpart to the classic prophet inequality, which we term the stationary prophet inequality problem. Here, copies of a good arrive and perish according to Poisson point processes. Buyers arrive similarly and make take-it-or-leave-it offers for unsold items. The objective is to maximize the (infinite) time average revenue of the seller. Our main results are pricing-based policies which (i) achieve a $1/2$-approximation of the optimal offline policy, which is best possible, and (ii) achieve a better than $(1-1/e)$-approximation of the optimal online policy. Result (i) improves upon bounds implied by recent work of Collina et al. (WINE20), and is the first optimal prophet inequality for a stationary problem. Result (ii) improves upon a $1-1/e$ bound implied by recent work of Aouad and Saritac{c} (EC20), and shows that this prevalent bound in online algorithms is not optimal for this problem.
We consider the problem of selling perishable items to a stream of buyers in order to maximize social welfare. A seller starts with a set of identical items, and each arriving buyer wants any one item, and has a valuation drawn i.i.d. from a known distribution. Each item, however, disappears after an a priori unknown amount of time that we term the horizon for that item. The seller knows the (possibly different) distribution of the horizon for each item, but not its realization till the item actually disappears. As with the classic prophet inequalities, the goal is to design an online pricing scheme that competes with the prophet that knows the horizon and extracts full social surplus (or welfare). Our main results are for the setting where items have independent horizon distributions satisfying the monotone-hazard-rate (MHR) condition. Here, for any number of items, we achieve a constant-competitive bound via a conceptually simple policy that balances the rate at which buyers are accepted with the rate at which items are removed from the system. We implement this policy via a novel technique of matching via probabilistically simulating departures of the items at future times. Moreover, for a single item and MHR horizon distribution with mean $mu$, we show a tight result: There is a fixed pricing scheme that has competitive ratio at most $2 - 1/mu$, and this is the best achievable in this class. We further show that our results are best possible. First, we show that the competitive ratio is unbounded without the MHR assumption even for one item. Further, even when the horizon distributions are i.i.d. MHR and the number of items becomes large, the competitive ratio of any policy is lower bounded by a constant greater than $1$, which is in sharp contrast to the setting with identical deterministic horizons.
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