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Register a new userMatroid Prophet Inequalities
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Robert Kleinberg
Publication date
2012
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Consider a gambler who observes a sequence of independent, non-negative random numbers and is allowed to stop the sequence at any time, claiming a reward equal to the most recent observation. The famous prophet inequality of Krengel, Sucheston, and Garling asserts that a gambler who knows the distribution of each random variable can achieve at least half as much reward, in expectation, as a prophet who knows the sampled values of each random variable and can choose the largest one. We generalize this result to the setting in which the gambler and the prophet are allowed to make more than one selection, subject to a matroid constraint. We show that the gambler can still achieve at least half as much reward as the prophet; this result is the best possible, since it is known that the ratio cannot be improved even in the original prophet inequality, which corresponds to the special case of rank-one matroids. Generalizing the result still further, we show that under an intersection of p matroid constraints, the prophets reward exceeds the gamblers by a factor of at most O(p), and this factor is also tight. Beyond their interest as theorems about pure online algorithms or optimal stopping rules, these results also have applications to mechanism design. Our results imply improved bounds on the ability of sequential posted-price mechanisms to approximate Bayesian optimal mechanisms in both single-parameter and multi-parameter settings. In particular, our results imply the first efficiently computable constant-factor approximations to the Bayesian optimal revenue in certain multi-parameter settings.
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In a classical online decision problem, a decision-maker who is trying to maximize her value inspects a sequence of arriving items to learn their values (drawn from known distributions), and decides when to stop the process by taking the current item. The goal is to prove a prophet inequality: that she can do approximately as well as a prophet with foreknowledge of all the values. In this work, we investigate this problem when the values are allowed to be correlated. Since non-trivial guarantees are impossible for arbitrary correlations, we consider a natural linear correlation structure introduced by Bateni et al. [ESA 2015] as a generalization of the common-base value model of Chawla et al. [GEB 2015]. A key challenge is that threshold-based algorithms, which are commonly used for prophet inequalities, no longer guarantee good performance for linear correlations. We relate this roadblock to another augmentations challenge that might be of independent interest: many existing prophet inequality algorithms are not robust to slight increase in the values of the arriving items. We leverage this intuition to prove bounds (matching up to constant factors) that decay gracefully with the amount of correlation of the arriving items. We extend these results to the case of selecting multiple items by designing a new $(1+o(1))$ approximation ratio algorithm that is robust to augmentations.
Free order prophet inequalities bound the ratio between the expected value obtained by two parties each selecting a value from a set of independent random variables: a prophet who knows the value of each variable and may select the maximum one, and a gambler who is free to choose the order in which to observe the values but must select one of them immediately after observing it, without knowing what values will be sampled for the unobserved variables. It is known that the gambler can always ensure an expected payoff at least $0.669dots$ times as great as that of the prophet. In fact, there exists a threshold stopping rule which guarantees a gambler-to-prophet ratio of at least $1-frac1e=0.632dots$. In contrast, if the gambler must observe the values in a predetermined order, the tight bound for the gambler-to-prophet ratio is $1/2$. In this work we investigate a model that interpolates between these two extremes. We assume there is a predefined set of permutations, and the gambler is free to choose the order of observation to be any one of these predefined permutations. Surprisingly, we show that even when only two orderings are allowed---namely, the forward and reverse orderings---the gambler-to-prophet ratio improves to $varphi^{-1}=0.618dots$, the inverse of the golden ratio. As the number of allowed permutations grows beyond 2, a striking double plateau phenomenon emerges: after increasing from $0.5$ to $varphi^{-1}$, the gambler-to-prophet ratio achievable by threshold stopping rules does not exceed $varphi^{-1}+o(1)$ until the number of allowed permutations grows to $O(log n)$. The ratio reaches $1-frac1e-varepsilon$ for a suitably chosen set of $O(text{poly}(varepsilon^{-1})cdotlog n)$ permutations and does not exceed $1-frac1e$ even when the full set of $n!$ permutations is allowed.
The rich literature on online Bayesian selection problems has long focused on so-called prophet inequalities, which compare the gain of an online algorithm to that of a prophet who knows the future. An equally-natural, though significantly less well-studied benchmark is the optimum online algorithm, which may be omnipotent (i.e., computationally-unbounded), but not omniscient. What is the computational complexity of the optimum online? How well can a polynomial-time algorithm approximate it? We study the above questions for the online stochastic maximum-weight matching problem under vertex arrivals. For this problem, a number of $1/2$-competitive algorithms are known against optimum offline. This is the best possible ratio for this problem, as it generalizes the original single-item prophet inequality problem. We present a polynomial-time algorithm which approximates the optimal online algorithm within a factor of $0.51$ -- beating the best-possible prophet inequality. In contrast, we show that it is PSPACE-hard to approximate this problem within some constant $alpha < 1$.
The setting of the classic prophet inequality is as follows: a gambler is shown the probability distributions of $n$ independent, non-negative random variables with finite expectations. In their indexed order, a value is drawn from each distribution, and after every draw the gambler may choose to accept the value and end the game, or discard the value permanently and continue the game. What is the best performance that the gambler can achieve in comparison to a prophet who can always choose the highest value? Krengel, Sucheston, and Garling solved this problem in 1978, showing that there exists a strategy for which the gambler can achieve half as much reward as the prophet in expectation. Furthermore, this result is tight. In this work, we consider a setting in which the gambler is allowed much less information. Suppose that the gambler can only take one sample from each of the distributions before playing the game, instead of knowing the full distributions. We provide a simple and intuitive algorithm that recovers the original approximation of $frac{1}{2}$. Our algorithm works against even an almighty adversary who always chooses a worst-case ordering, rather than the standard offline adversary. The result also has implications for mechanism design -- there is much interest in designing competitive auctions with a finite number of samples from value distributions rather than full distributional knowledge.
We provide prophet inequality algorithms for online weighted matching in general (non-bipartite) graphs, under two well-studied arrival models, namely edge arrival and vertex arrival. The weight of each edge is drawn independently from an a-priori known probability distribution. Under edge arrival, the weight of each edge is revealed upon arrival, and the algorithm decides whether to include it in the matching or not. Under vertex arrival, the weights of all edges from the newly arriving vertex to all previously arrived vertices are revealed, and the algorithm decides which of these edges, if any, to include in the matching. To study these settings, we introduce a novel unified framework of batched prophet inequalities that captures online settings where elements arrive in batches; in particular it captures matching under the two aforementioned arrival models. Our algorithms rely on the construction of suitable online contention resolution scheme (OCRS). We first extend the framework of OCRS to batched-OCRS, we then establish a reduction from batched prophet inequality to batched OCRS, and finally we construct batched OCRSs with selectable ratios of 0.337 and 0.5 for edge and vertex arrival models, respectively. Both results improve the state of the art for the corresponding settings. For the vertex arrival, our result is tight. Interestingly, a pricing-based prophet inequality with comparable competitive ratios is unknown.
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