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Forecasting is challenging since uncertainty resulted from exogenous factors exists. This work investigates the rank position forecasting problem in car racing, which predicts the rank positions at the future laps for cars. Among the many factors that bring changes to the rank positions, pit stops are critical but irregular and rare. We found existing methods, including statistical models, machine learning regression models, and state-of-the-art deep forecasting model based on encoder-decoder architecture, all have limitations in the forecasting. By elaborative analysis of pit stops events, we propose a deep model, RankNet, with the cause effects decomposition that modeling the rank position sequence and pit stop events separately. It also incorporates probabilistic forecasting to model the uncertainty inside each sub-model. Through extensive experiments, RankNet demonstrates a strong performance improvement over the baselines, e.g., MAE improves more than 10% consistently, and is also more stable when adapting to unseen new data. Details of model optimization, performance profiling are presented. It is promising to provide useful forecasting tools for the car racing analysis and shine a light on solutions to similar challenging issues in general forecasting problems.
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Personalization is a crucial aspect of many online experiences. In particular, content ranking is often a key component in delivering sophisticated personalization results. Commonly, supervised learning-to-rank methods are applied, which suffer from bias introduced during data collection by production systems in charge of producing the ranking. To compensate for this problem, we leverage contextual multi-armed bandits. We propose novel extensions of two well-known algorithms viz. LinUCB and Linear Thompson Sampling to the ranking use-case. To account for the biases in a production environment, we employ the position-based click model. Finally, we show the validity of the proposed algorithms by conducting extensive offline experiments on synthetic datasets as well as customer facing online A/B experiments.
Ridesourcing platforms like Uber and Didi are getting more and more popular around the world. However, unauthorized ridesourcing activities taking advantages of the sharing economy can greatly impair the healthy development of this emerging industry. As the first step to regulate on-demand ride services and eliminate black market, we design a method to detect ridesourcing cars from a pool of cars based on their trajectories. Since licensed ridesourcing car traces are not openly available and may be completely missing in some cities due to legal issues, we turn to transferring knowledge from public transport open data, i.e, taxis and buses, to ridesourcing detection among ordinary vehicles. We propose a two-stage transfer learning framework. In Stage 1, we take taxi and bus data as input to learn a random forest (RF) classifier using trajectory features shared by taxis/buses and ridesourcing/other cars. Then, we use the RF to label all the candidate cars. In Stage 2, leveraging the subset of high confident labels from the previous stage as input, we further learn a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier for ridesourcing detection, and iteratively refine RF and CNN, as well as the feature set, via a co-training process. Finally, we use the resulting ensemble of RF and CNN to identify the ridesourcing cars in the candidate pool. Experiments on real car, taxi and bus traces show that our transfer learning framework, with no need of a pre-labeled ridesourcing dataset, can achieve similar accuracy as the supervised learning methods.
Autonomous car racing is a challenging task in the robotic control area. Traditional modular methods require accurate mapping, localization and planning, which makes them computationally inefficient and sensitive to environmental changes. Recently, deep-learning-based end-to-end systems have shown promising results for autonomous driving/racing. However, they are commonly implemented by supervised imitation learning (IL), which suffers from the distribution mismatch problem, or by reinforcement learning (RL), which requires a huge amount of risky interaction data. In this work, we present a general deep imitative reinforcement learning approach (DIRL), which successfully achieves agile autonomous racing using visual inputs. The driving knowledge is acquired from both IL and model-based RL, where the agent can learn from human teachers as well as perform self-improvement by safely interacting with an offline world model. We validate our algorithm both in a high-fidelity driving simulation and on a real-world 1/20-scale RC-car with limited onboard computation. The evaluation results demonstrate that our method outperforms previous IL and RL methods in terms of sample efficiency and task performance. Demonstration videos are available at https://caipeide.github.io/autorace-dirl/
Effective riverine flood forecasting at scale is hindered by a multitude of factors, most notably the need to rely on human calibration in current methodology, the limited amount of data for a specific location, and the computational difficulty of building continent/global level models that are sufficiently accurate. Machine learning (ML) is primed to be useful in this scenario: learned models often surpass human experts in complex high-dimensional scenarios, and the framework of transfer or multitask learning is an appealing solution for leveraging local signals to achieve improved global performance. We propose to build on these strengths and develop ML systems for timely and accurate riverine flood prediction.
Computational models that forecast the progression of Alzheimers disease at the patient level are extremely useful tools for identifying high risk cohorts for early intervention and treatment planning. The state-of-the-art work in this area proposes models that forecast by using latent representations extracted from the longitudinal data across multiple modalities, including volumetric information extracted from medical scans and demographic info. These models incorporate the time horizon, which is the amount of time between the last recorded visit and the future visit, by directly concatenating a representation of it to the data latent representation. In this paper, we present a model which generates a sequence of latent representations of the patient status across the time horizon, providing more informative modeling of the temporal relationships between the patients history and future visits. Our proposed model outperforms the baseline in terms of forecasting accuracy and F1 score with the added benefit of robustly handling missing visits.
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