No Arabic abstract
The prevalence of location-based social networks (LBSNs) has eased the understanding of human mobility patterns. Knowledge of human dynamics can aid in various ways like urban planning, managing traffic congestion, personalized recommendation etc. These dynamics are influenced by factors like social impact, periodicity in mobility, spatial proximity, influence among users and semantic categories etc., which makes location modelling a critical task. However, categories which act as semantic characterization of the location, might be missing for some check-ins and can adversely affect modelling the mobility dynamics of users. At the same time, mobility patterns provide a cue on the missing semantic category. In this paper, we simultaneously address the problem of semantic annotation of locations and location adoption dynamics of users. We propose our model HAP-SAP, a latent spatio-temporal multivariate Hawkes process, which considers latent semantic category influences, and temporal and spatial mobility patterns of users. The model parameters and latent semantic categories are inferred using expectation-maximization algorithm, which uses Gibbs sampling to obtain posterior distribution over latent semantic categories. The inferred semantic categories can supplement our model on predicting the next check-in events by users. Our experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the semantic annotation and location adoption modelling tasks.
The textual content of a document and its publication date are intertwined. For example, the publication of a news article on a topic is influenced by previous publications on similar issues, according to underlying temporal dynamics. However, it can be challenging to retrieve meaningful information when textual information conveys little information or when temporal dynamics are hard to unveil. Furthermore, the textual content of a document is not always linked to its temporal dynamics. We develop a flexible method to create clusters of textual documents according to both their content and publication time, the Powered Dirichlet-Hawkes process (PDHP). We show PDHP yields significantly better results than state-of-the-art models when temporal information or textual content is weakly informative. The PDHP also alleviates the hypothesis that textual content and temporal dynamics are always perfectly correlated. PDHP allows retrieving textual clusters, temporal clusters, or a mixture of both with high accuracy when they are not. We demonstrate that PDHP generalizes previous work --such as the Dirichlet-Hawkes process (DHP) and Uniform process (UP). Finally, we illustrate the changes induced by PDHP over DHP and UP in a real-world application using Reddit data.
Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic has created many challenges that need immediate attention. Various epidemiological and deep learning models have been developed to predict the COVID-19 outbreak, but all have limitations that affect the accuracy and robustness of the predictions. Our method aims at addressing these limitations and making earlier and more accurate pandemic outbreak predictions by (1) using patients EHR data from different counties and states that encode local disease status and medical resource utilization condition; (2) considering demographic similarity and geographical proximity between locations; and (3) integrating pandemic transmission dynamics into deep learning models. Materials and Methods: We proposed a spatio-temporal attention network (STAN) for pandemic prediction. It uses an attention-based graph convolutional network to capture geographical and temporal trends and predict the number of cases for a fixed number of days into the future. We also designed a physical law-based loss term for enhancing long-term prediction. STAN was tested using both massive real-world patient data and open source COVID-19 statistics provided by Johns Hopkins university across all U.S. counties. Results: STAN outperforms epidemiological modeling methods such as SIR and SEIR and deep learning models on both long-term and short-term predictions, achieving up to 87% lower mean squared error compared to the best baseline prediction model. Conclusions: By using information from real-world patient data and geographical data, STAN can better capture the disease status and medical resource utilization information and thus provides more accurate pandemic modeling. With pandemic transmission law based regularization, STAN also achieves good long-term prediction performance.
We present the first comprehensive characterization of the diffusion of ideas on Twitter, studying more than 4000 topics that include both popular and less popular topics. On a data set containing approximately 10 million users and a comprehensive scraping of all the tweets posted by these users between June 2009 and August 2009 (approximately 200 million tweets), we perform a rigorous temporal and spatial analysis, investigating the time-evolving properties of the subgraphs formed by the users discussing each topic. We focus on two different notions of the spatial: the network topology formed by follower-following links on Twitter, and the geospatial location of the users. We investigate the effect of initiators on the popularity of topics and find that users with a high number of followers have a strong impact on popularity. We deduce that topics become popular when disjoint clusters of users discussing them begin to merge and form one giant component that grows to cover a significant fraction of the network. Our geospatial analysis shows that highly popular topics are those that cross regional boundaries aggressively.
The contagion dynamics can emerge in social networks when repeated activation is allowed. An interesting example of this phenomenon is retweet cascades where users allow to re-share content posted by other people with public accounts. To model this type of behaviour we use a Hawkes self-exciting process. To do it properly though one needs to calibrate model under consideration. The main goal of this paper is to construct moments method of estimation of this model. The key step is based on identifying of a generator of a Hawkes process. We perform numerical analysis on real data as well.
This paper propose a novel dictionary learning approach to detect event action using skeletal information extracted from RGBD video. The event action is represented as several latent atoms and composed of latent spatial and temporal attributes. We perform the method at the example of fall event detection. The skeleton frames are clustered by an initial K-means method. Each skeleton frame is assigned with a varying weight parameter and fed into our Gradual Online Dictionary Learning (GODL) algorithm. During the training process, outlier frames will be gradually filtered by reducing the weight that is inversely proportional to a cost. In order to strictly distinguish the event action from similar actions and robustly acquire its action unit, we build a latent unit temporal structure for each sub-action. We evaluate the proposed method on parts of the NTURGB+D dataset, which includes 209 fall videos, 405 ground-lift videos, 420 sit-down videos, and 280 videos of 46 otheractions. We present the experimental validation of the achieved accuracy, recall and precision. Our approach achieves the bestperformance on precision and accuracy of human fall event detection, compared with other existing dictionary learning methods. With increasing noise ratio, our method remains the highest accuracy and the lowest variance.