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Register a new userSTAN: Spatio-Temporal Attention Network for Pandemic Prediction Using Real World Evidence
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Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic has created many challenges that need immediate attention. Various epidemiological and deep learning models have been developed to predict the COVID-19 outbreak, but all have limitations that affect the accuracy and robustness of the predictions. Our method aims at addressing these limitations and making earlier and more accurate pandemic outbreak predictions by (1) using patients EHR data from different counties and states that encode local disease status and medical resource utilization condition; (2) considering demographic similarity and geographical proximity between locations; and (3) integrating pandemic transmission dynamics into deep learning models. Materials and Methods: We proposed a spatio-temporal attention network (STAN) for pandemic prediction. It uses an attention-based graph convolutional network to capture geographical and temporal trends and predict the number of cases for a fixed number of days into the future. We also designed a physical law-based loss term for enhancing long-term prediction. STAN was tested using both massive real-world patient data and open source COVID-19 statistics provided by Johns Hopkins university across all U.S. counties. Results: STAN outperforms epidemiological modeling methods such as SIR and SEIR and deep learning models on both long-term and short-term predictions, achieving up to 87% lower mean squared error compared to the best baseline prediction model. Conclusions: By using information from real-world patient data and geographical data, STAN can better capture the disease status and medical resource utilization information and thus provides more accurate pandemic modeling. With pandemic transmission law based regularization, STAN also achieves good long-term prediction performance.
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The next location recommendation is at the core of various location-based applications. Current state-of-the-art models have attempted to solve spatial sparsity with hierarchical gridding and model temporal relation with explicit time intervals, while some vital questions remain unsolved. Non-adjacent locations and non-consecutive visits provide non-trivial correlations for understanding a users behavior but were rarely considered. To aggregate all relevant visits from user trajectory and recall the most plausible candidates from weighted representations, here we propose a Spatio-Temporal Attention Network (STAN) for location recommendation. STAN explicitly exploits relative spatiotemporal information of all the check-ins with self-attention layers along the trajectory. This improvement allows a point-to-point interaction between non-adjacent locations and non-consecutive check-ins with explicit spatiotemporal effect. STAN uses a bi-layer attention architecture that firstly aggregates spatiotemporal correlation within user trajectory and then recalls the target with consideration of personalized item frequency (PIF). By visualization, we show that STAN is in line with the above intuition. Experimental results unequivocally show that our model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods by 9-17%.
3D convolutional neural networks have achieved promising results for video tasks in computer vision, including video saliency prediction that is explored in this paper. However, 3D convolution encodes visual representation merely on fixed local spacetime according to its kernel size, while human attention is always attracted by relational visual features at different time of a video. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel Spatio-Temporal Self-Attention 3D Network (STSANet) for video saliency prediction, in which multiple Spatio-Temporal Self-Attention (STSA) modules are employed at different levels of 3D convolutional backbone to directly capture long-range relations between spatio-temporal features of different time steps. Besides, we propose an Attentional Multi-Scale Fusion (AMSF) module to integrate multi-level features with the perception of context in semantic and spatio-temporal subspaces. Extensive experiments demonstrate the contributions of key components of our method, and the results on DHF1K, Hollywood-2, UCF, and DIEM benchmark datasets clearly prove the superiority of the proposed model compared with all state-of-the-art models.
Network embedding aims to learn low-dimensional representations of nodes while capturing structure information of networks. It has achieved great success on many tasks of network analysis such as link prediction and node classification. Most of existing network embedding algorithms focus on how to learn static homogeneous networks effectively. However, networks in the real world are more complex, e.g., networks may consist of several types of nodes and edges (called heterogeneous information) and may vary over time in terms of dynamic nodes and edges (called evolutionary patterns). Limited work has been done for network embedding of dynamic heterogeneous networks as it is challenging to learn both evolutionary and heterogeneous information simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a novel dynamic heterogeneous network embedding method, termed as DyHATR, which uses hierarchical attention to learn heterogeneous information and incorporates recurrent neural networks with temporal attention to capture evolutionary patterns. We benchmark our method on four real-world datasets for the task of link prediction. Experimental results show that DyHATR significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines.
An effective understanding of the environment and accurate trajectory prediction of surrounding dynamic obstacles are indispensable for intelligent mobile systems (e.g. autonomous vehicles and social robots) to achieve safe and high-quality planning when they navigate in highly interactive and crowded scenarios. Due to the existence of frequent interactions and uncertainty in the scene evolution, it is desired for the prediction system to enable relational reasoning on different entities and provide a distribution of future trajectories for each agent. In this paper, we propose a generic generative neural system (called STG-DAT) for multi-agent trajectory prediction involving heterogeneous agents. The system takes a step forward to explicit interaction modeling by incorporating relational inductive biases with a dynamic graph representation and leverages both trajectory and scene context information. We also employ an efficient kinematic constraint layer applied to vehicle trajectory prediction. The constraint not only ensures physical feasibility but also enhances model performance. Moreover, the proposed prediction model can be easily adopted by multi-target tracking frameworks. The tracking accuracy proves to be improved by empirical results. The proposed system is evaluated on three public benchmark datasets for trajectory prediction, where the agents cover pedestrians, cyclists and on-road vehicles. The experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves better performance than various baseline approaches in terms of prediction and tracking accuracy.
The objective of this study is to predict the near-future flooding status of road segments based on their own and adjacent road segments current status through the use of deep learning framework on fine-grained traffic data. Predictive flood monitoring for situational awareness of road network status plays a critical role to support crisis response activities such as evaluation of the loss of access to hospitals and shelters. Existing studies related to near-future prediction of road network flooding status at road segment level are missing. Using fine-grained traffic speed data related to road sections, this study designed and implemented three spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) models to predict road network status during flood events at the road segment level in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County (Texas, USA). Model 1 consists of two spatio-temporal blocks considering the adjacency and distance between road segments, while Model 2 contains an additional elevation block to account for elevation difference between road segments. Model 3 includes three blocks for considering the adjacency and the product of distance and elevation difference between road segments. The analysis tested the STGCN models and evaluated their prediction performance. Our results indicated that Model 1 and Model 2 have reliable and accurate performance for predicting road network flooding status in near future (e.g., 2-4 hours) with model precision and recall values larger than 98% and 96%, respectively. With reliable road network status predictions in floods, the proposed model can benefit affected communities to avoid flooded roads and the emergency management agencies to implement evacuation and relief resource delivery plans.
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