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Register a new userOn the Detection Potential of Blazar Flares for Current Neutrino Telescopes
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Blazar jets are extreme environments, in which relativistic proton interactions with an ultraviolet photon field could give rise to photopion production. High-confidence associations of individual high-energy neutrinos with blazar flares could be achieved via spatially and temporally coincident detections. In 2017, the track-like, extremely high-energy neutrino event IC 170922A was found to coincide with increased $gamma$-ray emission from the blazar TXS 0506+056, leading to the identification of the most promising neutrino point source candidate so far. We calculate the expected number of neutrino events that can be detected with IceCube, based on a broadband parametrization of bright short-term blazar flares that were observed in the first 6.5 years of textit{Fermi}/LAT observations. We find that the integrated keV-to-GeV fluence of most individual blazar flares is far too small to yield a substantial Poisson probability for the detection of one or more neutrinos with IceCube. We show that the sample of potentially detectable high-energy neutrinos from individual blazar flares is rather small. We further show that the blazars 3C 279 and PKS 1510$-$089 dominate the all-sky neutrino prediction from bright and short-term blazar flares. In the end, we discuss strategies to search for more significant associations in future data unblindings of IceCube and KM3NeT.
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In this work, we investigate the 2014-2015 neutrino flare associated with the blazar TXS 0506+056 and a recently discovered muon neutrino event IceCube-200107A in spatial coincidence with the blazar 4FGL J0955.1+3551, under the framework of a two-zone radiation model of blazars where an inner/outer blob close to/far from the supermassive black hole are invoked. An interesting feature that the two sources share in common is that no evidence of GeV gamma-ray activity is found during the neutrino detection period, probably implying a large opacity for GeV gamma rays in the neutrino production region. In our model, continuous particle acceleration/injection takes place in the inner blob at the jet base, where the hot X-ray corona of the supermassive black hole provides target photon fields for efficient neutrino production and strong GeV gamma-ray absorption. We show that this model can self-consistently interpret the neutrino emission from both two blazars in a large parameter space. In the meantime, the dissipation processes in outer blob are responsible for the simultaneous multi-wavelength emission of both sources. In agreement with previous studies of TXS 0506+056 and, an intense MeV emission from the induced electromagnetic cascade in the inner blob is robustly expected to accompany the neutrino flare in our model could be used to test the model with the next-generation MeV gamma-ray detector in the future.
Motivated by the recently reported evidence of an association between a high-energy neutrino and a gamma-ray flare from the blazar TXS 0506+056, we calculate the expected high-energy neutrino signal from past, individual flares, from twelve blazars, selected in declinations favourable for detection with IceCube. To keep the number of free parameters to a minimum, we mainly focus on BL Lac objects and assume the synchrotron self-Compton mechanism produces the bulk of the high-energy emission. We consider a broad range of the allowed parameter space for the efficiency of proton acceleration, the proton content of BL Lac jets, and the presence of external photon fields. To model the expected neutrino fluence we use simultaneous multi-wavelength observations. We find that in the absence of external photon fields and with jet proton luminosity normalised to match the observed production rate of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, individual flaring sources produce a modest neutrino flux in IceCube, $lesssim10^{-3}$ muon neutrinos with energy exceeding 100 TeV, stacking ten years of flare periods selected in the >800 MeV Fermi energy range from each source. Under optimistic assumptions about the jet proton luminosity and in the presence of external photon fields, we find that the two most powerful sources in our sample, AO 0235+164, and OJ 287, would produce, in total, $approx 3$ muon neutrinos during ten years of Fermi flaring periods, in future neutrino detectors with total instrumented volume $sim$ten times larger than IceCube,or otherwise, constrain the proton luminosity of blazar jets.
Recent detection of the neutrino event, IceCube-170922A by IceCube observatory from the Blazar TXS 0506+056 in the state of enhanced gamma ray emission indicates for acceleration of cosmic rays in the blazar jet. The non-detection of the broadline emission in the optical spectrum of TXS 0506+056 and other BL Lac objects suggests that external photons emissions are weak and hence photo-meson (p-gamma) interaction may not be a favored mechanism for high energy neutrino production. The lack of broadline signatures also creates doubt about the presence of a high density cloud in the vicinity of the super-massive black hole (SMBH) of TXS 0506+056 and consequently raised question on hadronuclear (pp) interaction interpretation like relativistic jet meets with high density cloud. Here we demonstrate that non-relativistic protons in the proton blazar model, those come into existence under charge neutrality condition of the blazar jet, offer sufficient target matter for pp-interaction with shock accelerated protons and consequently the model can describe consistently the observed high energy gamma rays and neutrino signal from the blazar TXS 0506+056.
Blazars are the most extreme subclass of active galactic nuclei with relativistic jets emerging from a super-massive black hole and forming a small angle with respect to our line of sight. Blazars are also known to be related to flaring activity as they exhibit large flux variations over a wide range of frequency and on multiple timescales, ranging from a few minutes to several months. The detection of a high-energy neutrino from the flaring blazar TXS 0506+056 and the subsequent discovery of a neutrino excess from the same direction have naturally strengthened the hypothesis that blazars are cosmic neutrino sources. While neutrino production during gamma-ray flares has been widely discussed, the neutrino yield of X-ray flares has received less attention. Motivated by a theoretical scenario where high energy neutrinos are produced by energetic protons interacting with their own X-ray synchrotron radiation, we make neutrino predictions over a sample of a sample of X-ray blazars. This sample consists of all blazars observed with the X-ray Telescope (XRT) on board Swift more than 50 times from November 2004 to November 2020. The statistical identification of a flaring state is done using the Bayesian Block algorithm to the 1 keV XRT light curves of frequently observed blazars. We categorize flaring states into classes based on their variation from the time-average value of the data points. During each flaring state, we compute the expected muon plus anti-muon neutrino events as well as the total signal for each source using the point-source effective area of Icecube for different operational seasons. We find that the median of the total neutrino number (in logarithm) from flares with duration $<30$ d is $mathcal{N}^{(rm tot)}_{ u_{mu}+bar{ u}_{mu}} sim 0.02$.
Using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), we report the first clear gamma-ray measurement of a delay between flares from the gravitationally lensed images of a blazar. The delay was detected in B0218+357, a known double-image lensed system, during a period of enhanced gamma-ray activity with peak fluxes consistently observed to reach >20-50 times its previous average flux. An auto-correlation function analysis identified a delay in the gamma-ray data of 11.46 +/- 0.16 days (1 sigma) that is ~1 day greater than previous radio measurements. Considering that it is beyond the capabilities of the LAT to spatially resolve the two images, we nevertheless decomposed individual sequences of superposing gamma-ray flares/delayed emissions. In three such ~8-10 day-long sequences within a ~4-month span, considering confusion due to overlapping flaring emission and flux measurement uncertainties, we found flux ratios consistent with ~1, thus systematically smaller than those from radio observations. During the first, best-defined flare, the delayed emission was detailed with a Fermi pointing, and we observed flux doubling timescales of ~3-6 hrs implying as well extremely compact gamma-ray emitting regions.
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