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Register a new userTNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction
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Added by
Hang Zhao
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Predicting the future behavior of moving agents is essential for real world applications. It is challenging as the intent of the agent and the corresponding behavior is unknown and intrinsically multimodal. Our key insight is that for prediction within a moderate time horizon, the future modes can be effectively captured by a set of target states. This leads to our target-driven trajectory prediction (TNT) framework. TNT has three stages which are trained end-to-end. It first predicts an agents potential target states $T$ steps into the future, by encoding its interactions with the environment and the other agents. TNT then generates trajectory state sequences conditioned on targets. A final stage estimates trajectory likelihoods and a final compact set of trajectory predictions is selected. This is in contrast to previous work which models agent intents as latent variables, and relies on test-time sampling to generate diverse trajectories. We benchmark TNT on trajectory prediction of vehicles and pedestrians, where we outperform state-of-the-art on Argoverse Forecasting, INTERACTION, Stanford Drone and an in-house Pedestrian-at-Intersection dataset.
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It is critical to predict the motion of surrounding vehicles for self-driving planning, especially in a socially compliant and flexible way. However, future prediction is challenging due to the interaction and uncertainty in driving behaviors. We propose planning-informed trajectory prediction (PiP) to tackle the prediction problem in the multi-agent setting. Our approach is differentiated from the traditional manner of prediction, which is only based on historical information and decoupled with planning. By informing the prediction process with the planning of ego vehicle, our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of multi-agent forecasting on highway datasets. Moreover, our approach enables a novel pipeline which couples the prediction and planning, by conditioning PiP on multiple candidate trajectories of the ego vehicle, which is highly beneficial for autonomous driving in interactive scenarios.
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Human trajectory prediction has received increased attention lately due to its importance in applications such as autonomous vehicles and indoor robots. However, most existing methods make predictions based on human-labeled trajectories and ignore the errors and noises in detection and tracking. In this paper, we study the problem of human trajectory forecasting in raw videos, and show that the prediction accuracy can be severely affected by various types of tracking errors. Accordingly, we propose a simple yet effective strategy to correct the tracking failures by enforcing prediction consistency over time. The proposed re-tracking algorithm can be applied to any existing tracking and prediction pipelines. Experiments on public benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method can improve both tracking and prediction performance in challenging real-world scenarios. The code and data are available at https://git.io/retracking-prediction.
We propose to predict the future trajectories of observed agents (e.g., pedestrians or vehicles) by estimating and using their goals at multiple time scales. We argue that the goal of a moving agent may change over time, and modeling goals continuously provides more accurate and detailed information for future trajectory estimation. In this paper, we present a novel recurrent network for trajectory prediction, called Stepwise Goal-Driven Network (SGNet). Unlike prior work that models only a single, long-term goal, SGNet estimates and uses goals at multiple temporal scales. In particular, the framework incorporates an encoder module that captures historical information, a stepwise goal estimator that predicts successive goals into the future, and a decoder module that predicts future trajectory. We evaluate our model on three first-person traffic datasets (HEV-I, JAAD, and PIE) as well as on two birds eye view datasets (ETH and UCY), and show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of both average and final displacement errors on all datasets. Code has been made available at: https://github.com/ChuhuaW/SGNet.pytorch.
Due to the stochasticity of human behaviors, predicting the future trajectories of road agents is challenging for autonomous driving. Recently, goal-based multi-trajectory prediction methods are proved to be effective, where they first score over-sampled goal candidates and then select a final set from them. However, these methods usually involve goal predictions based on sparse pre-defined anchors and heuristic goal selection algorithms. In this work, we propose an anchor-free and end-to-end trajectory prediction model, named DenseTNT, that directly outputs a set of trajectories from dense goal candidates. In addition, we introduce an offline optimization-based technique to provide multi-future pseudo-labels for our final online model. Experiments show that DenseTNT achieves state-of-the-art performance, ranking 1st on the Argoverse motion forecasting benchmark and being the 1st place winner of the 2021 Waymo Open Dataset Motion Prediction Challenge.
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