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Register a new userData-Driven Distributed Mitigation Strategies and Analysis of Mutating Epidemic Processes
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In this paper we study a discrete-time SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, where the infection and healing parameters and the underlying network may change over time. We provide conditions for the model to be well-defined and study its stability. For systems with homogeneous infection rates over symmetric graphs,we provide a sufficient condition for global exponential stability (GES) of the healthy state, that is, where the virus is eradicated. For systems with heterogeneous virus spread over directed graphs, provided that the variation is not too fast, a sufficient condition for GES of the healthy state is established.
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This paper studies epidemic processes over discrete-time periodic time-varying networks. We focus on the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model that accounts for a (possibly) mutating virus. We say that an agent is in the disease-free state if it is not infected by the virus. Our objective is to devise a control strategy which ensures that all agents in a network exponentially (resp. asymptotically) converge to the disease-free equilibrium (DFE). Towards this end, we first provide a) sufficient conditions for exponential (resp. asymptotic) convergence to the DFE; and b) a necessary and sufficient condition for asymptotic convergence to the DFE. The sufficient condition for global exponential stability (GES) (resp. global asymptotic stability (GAS)) of the DFE is in terms of the joint spectral radius of a set of suitably-defined matrices, whereas the necessary and sufficient condition for GAS of the DFE involves the spectral radius of an appropriately-defined product of matrices. Subsequently, we leverage the stability results in order to design a distributed control strategy for eradicating the epidemic.
The paper studies multi-competitive continuous-time epidemic processes in the presence of a shared resource. We consider the setting where multiple viruses are simultaneously prevalent in the population, and the spread occurs due to not only individual-to-individual interaction but also due to individual-to-resource interaction. In such a setting, an individual is either not affected by any of the viruses, or infected by one and exactly one of the multiple viruses. We classify the equilibria into three classes: a) the healthy state (all viruses are eradicated), b) single-virus endemic equilibria (all but one viruses are eradicated), and c) coexisting equilibria (multiple viruses simultaneously infect separate fractions of the population). We provide i) a sufficient condition for exponential (resp. asymptotic) eradication of a virus; ii) a sufficient condition for the existence, uniqueness and asymptotic stability of a single-virus endemic equilibrium; iii) a necessary and sufficient condition for the healthy state to be the unique equilibrium; and iv) for the bi-virus setting (i.e., two competing viruses), a sufficient condition and a necessary condition for the existence of a coexisting equilibrium. Building on these analytical results, we provide two mitigation strategies: a technique that guarantees convergence to the healthy state; and, in a bi-virus setup, a scheme that employs one virus to ensure that the other virus is eradicated. The results are illustrated in a numerical study of a spread scenario in Stockholm city.
In this paper, we present a data-driven secondary controller for regulating to some desired values several variables of interest in a power system, namely, electrical frequency, voltage magnitudes at critical buses, and active power flows through critical lines. The power generation system is based on distributed energy resources (DERs) interfaced with either grid-forming (GFM) or grid-following (GFL) inverters. The secondary controller is based on online feedback optimization leveraging the learned sensitivities of the changes in the system frequency, voltage magnitudes at critical buses, and active power flows through critical lines to the changes in inverter active and reactive power setpoints. To learn the sensitivities accurately from data, the feedback optimization has a built-in mechanism for keeping the secondary control inputs persistently exciting without degrading its performance. The feedback optimization also utilizes the learned power-voltage characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) arrays to compute DC-link voltage setpoints so as to allow the PV arrays to track the power setpoints. To learn the power-voltage characteristics, we separately execute a data-driven approach that fits a concave polynomial to the collected power-voltage measurements by solving a sum-of-squares (SoS) optimization. We showcase the secondary controller using the modified IEEE-14 bus test system, in which conventional energy sources are replaced with inverter-interfaced DERs.
We present an algorithm for data-driven reachability analysis that estimates finite-horizon forward reachable sets for general nonlinear systems using level sets of a certain class of polynomials known as Christoffel functions. The level sets of Christoffel functions are known empirically to provide good approximations to the support of probability distributions: the algorithm uses this property for reachability analysis by solving a probabilistic relaxation of the reachable set computation problem. We also provide a guarantee that the output of the algorithm is an accurate reachable set approximation in a probabilistic sense, provided that a certain sample size is attained. We also investigate three numerical examples to demonstrate the algorithms capabilities, such as providing non-convex reachable set approximations and detecting holes in the reachable set.
The security of energy supply in a power grid critically depends on the ability to accurately estimate the state of the system. However, manipulated power flow measurements can potentially hide overloads and bypass the bad data detection scheme to interfere the validity of estimated states. In this paper, we use an autoencoder neural network to detect anomalous system states and investigate the impact of hyperparameters on the detection performance for false data injection attacks that target power flows. Experimental results on the IEEE 118 bus system indicate that the proposed mechanism has the ability to achieve satisfactory learning efficiency and detection accuracy.
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