Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userEvaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations
158
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREOs heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve todays CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse, and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed, i.e. it is drag-based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different set-ups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well-defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between $6.2pm7.9$ h and $9.9pm13$ h depending on the model set-up used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near real-time STEREO-A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next $sim7$ years when STEREO-A is observing the Sun-Earth space.
rate research
Read More
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds for each CME based, independently, on the inputs from the two STEREO vantage points is carried out. We perform hindcasts using ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations (ELEvoHI) ensemble modelling. An estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions is obtained by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (WSA/HUX) model combination that serves as input to ELEvoHI. We carefully select 12 CMEs between February 2010 and July 2012 that show clear signatures in both STEREO-A and STEREO-B HI time-elongation maps, that propagate close to the ecliptic plane, and that have corresponding in situ signatures at Earth. We find a mean arrival time difference of 6.5 hrs between predictions from the two different viewpoints, which can reach up to 9.5 hrs for individual CMEs, while the mean arrival speed difference is 63 km s$^{-1}$. An ambient solar wind with a large speed variance leads to larger differences in the STEREO-A and STEREO-B CME arrival time predictions ($cc~=~0.92$). Additionally, we compare the predicted arrivals, from both spacecraft, to the actual in situ arrivals at Earth and find a mean absolute error of 7.5 $pm$ 9.5 hrs for the arrival time and 87 $pm$ 111 km s$^{-1}$ for the arrival speed. There is no tendency for one spacecraft to provide more accurate arrival predictions than the other.
On 2020 April 19 a coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in situ by Solar Orbiter at a heliocentric distance of about 0.8 AU. The CME was later observed in situ on April 20th by the Wind and BepiColombo spacecraft whilst BepiColombo was located very close to Earth. This CME presents a good opportunity for a triple radial alignment study, as the spacecraft were separated by less than 5$^circ$ in longitude. The source of the CME, which was launched on April 15th, was an almost entirely isolated streamer blowout. STEREO-A observed the event remotely from -75.1$^circ$ longitude, which is an exceptionally well suited viewpoint for heliospheric imaging of an Earth directed CME. The configuration of the four spacecraft has provided an exceptionally clean link between remote imaging and in situ observations of the CME. We have used the in situ observations of the CME at Solar Orbiter, Wind, and BepiColombo, and the remote observations of the CME at STEREO-A in combination with flux rope models to determine the global shape of the CME and its evolution as it propagated through the inner heliosphere. A clear flattening of the CME cross-section has been observed by STEREO-A, and further confirmed by comparing profiles of the flux rope models to the in situ data, where the distorted flux rope cross-section qualitatively agrees most with in situ observations of the magnetic field at Solar Orbiter. Comparing in situ observations of the magnetic field between spacecraft, we find that the dependence of the maximum (mean) magnetic field strength decreases with heliocentric distance as $r^{-1.24 pm 0.50}$ ($r^{-1.12 pm 0.14}$), in disagreement with previous studies. Further assessment of the axial and poloidal magnetic field strength dependencies suggests that the expansion of the CME is likely neither self-similar nor cylindrically symmetric.
The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements at STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.
An innovative field-particle correlation technique is proposed that uses single-point measurements of the electromagnetic fields and particle velocity distribution functions to investigate the net transfer of energy from fields to particles associated with the collisionless damping of turbulent fluctuations in weakly collisional plasmas, such as the solar wind. In addition to providing a direct estimate of the local rate of energy transfer between fields and particles, it provides vital new information about the distribution of that energy transfer in velocity space. This velocity-space signature can potentially be used to identify the dominant collisionless mechanism responsible for the damping of turbulent fluctuations in the solar wind. The application of this novel field-particle correlation technique is illustrated using the simplified case of the Landau damping of Langmuir waves in an electrostatic 1D-1V Vlasov-Poisson plasma, showing that the procedure both estimates the local rate of energy transfer from the electrostatic field to the electrons and indicates the resonant nature of this interaction. Modifications of the technique to enable single-point spacecraft measurements of fields and particles to diagnose the collisionless damping of turbulent fluctuations in the solar wind are discussed, yielding a method with the potential to transform our ability to maximize the scientific return from current and upcoming spacecraft missions, such as the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) and Solar Probe Plus missions.
The remoteness of the Sun and the harsh conditions prevailing in the solar corona have so far limited the observational data used in the study of solar physics to remote-sensing observations taken either from the ground or from space. In contrast, the `solar wind laboratory is directly measured in situ by a fleet of spacecraft measuring the properties of the plasma and magnetic fields at specific points in space. Since 2007, the solar-terrestrial relations observatory (STEREO) has been providing images of the solar wind that flows between the solar corona and spacecraft making in-situ measurements. This has allowed scientists to directly connect processes imaged near the Sun with the subsequent effects measured in the solar wind. This new capability prompted the development of a series of tools and techniques to track heliospheric structures through space. This article presents one of these tools, a web-based interface called the Propagation Tool that offers an integrated research environment to study the evolution of coronal and solar wind structures, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). These structures can be propagated from the Sun outwards to or alternatively inwards from planets and spacecraft situated in the inner and outer heliosphere. In this paper, we present the global architecture of the tool, discuss some of the assumptions made to simulate the evolution of the structures and show how the tool connects to different databases.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
