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Register a new userRe-examining rates of lithium-ion battery technology improvement and cost decline
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Lithium-ion technologies are increasingly employed to electrify transportation and provide stationary energy storage for electrical grids, and as such their development has garnered much attention. However, their deployment is still relatively limited, and their broader adoption will depend on their potential for cost reduction and performance improvement. Understanding this potential can inform critical climate change mitigation strategies, including public policies and technology development efforts. However, many existing models of past cost decline, which often serve as starting points for forecasting models, rely on limited data series and measures of technological progress. Here we systematically collect, harmonize, and combine various data series of price, market size, research and development, and performance of lithium-ion technologies. We then develop representative series for these measures and employ performance curve models to estimate improvement rates. We also develop a method to incorporate additional performance characteristics into these models, including energy density and specific energy performance metrics. When energy density is incorporated into the definition of service provided by a lithium-ion cell, estimated technological improvement rates increase considerably, suggesting that previously reported improvement rates might underestimate the rate of lithium-ion technologies change. Moreover, our estimates suggest the degree to which lithium-ion technologies price decline might have been limited by performance requirements other than cost per energy capacity. These rates also suggest that battery technologies developed for stationary applications, where restrictions on volume and mass are relaxed, might achieve faster cost declines, though engineering-based mechanistic cost modeling is required to further characterize this potential.
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Solid state battery technology has recently garnered considerable interest from companies including Toyota, BMW, Dyson, and others. The primary driver behind the commercialization of solid state batteries (SSBs) is to enable the use of lithium metal as the anode, as opposed to the currently used carbon anode, which would result in ~20% energy density improvement. However, no reported solid state battery to date meets all of the performance metrics of state of the art liquid electrolyte lithium ion batteries (LIBs) and indeed several solid state electrolyte (SSE) technologies may never reach parity with current LIBs. We begin with a review of state of the art LIBs, including their current performance characteristics, commercial trends in cost, and future possibilities. We then discuss current SSB research by focusing on three classes of solid state electrolytes: Sulfides, Polymers, and Oxides. We discuss recent and ongoing commercialization attempts in the SSB field. Finally, we conclude with our perspective and timeline for the future of commercial batteries.
We study a simple model for the evolution of the cost (or more generally the performance) of a technology or production process. The technology can be decomposed into $n$ components, each of which interacts with a cluster of $d-1$ other, dependent components. Innovation occurs through a series of trial-and-error events, each of which consists of randomly changing the cost of each component in a cluster, and accepting the changes only if the total cost of the entire cluster is lowered. We show that the relationship between the cost of the whole technology and the number of innovation attempts is asymptotically a power law, matching the functional form often observed for empirical data. The exponent $alpha$ of the power law depends on the intrinsic difficulty of finding better components, and on what we term the {it design complexity}: The more complex the design, the slower the rate of improvement. Letting $d$ as defined above be the connectivity, in the special case in which the connectivity is constant, the design complexity is simply the connectivity. When the connectivity varies, bottlenecks can arise in which a few components limit progress. In this case the design complexity is more complicated, depending on the details of the design. The number of bottlenecks also determines whether progress is steady, or whether there are periods of stasis punctuated by occasional large changes. Our model connects the engineering properties of a design to historical studies of technology improvement.
We study two thermo-electrochemical models for lithium-ion batteries. The first is based on volume averaging the electrode microstructure whereas the second is based on the pseudo-two-dimensional (P2D) approach which treats the electrode as a collection of spherical particles. A scaling analysis is used to reduce the volume-averaged model and show that the electrochemical reactions are the dominant source of heat. Matched asymptotic expansions are used to compute solutions of the volume-averaged model for the cases of constant applied current, oscillating applied current, and constant cell potential. The asymptotic and numerical solutions of the volume-averaged model are in remarkable agreement with numerical solutions of the thermal P2D model for (dis)charge rates up to 2C, and reasonable agreement is found at 4C. Homogenisation is then used to derive a thermal model for a battery consisting of several connected lithium-ion cells. Despite accounting for the Arrhenius dependence of the reaction coefficients, we show that thermal runaway does not occur in the model. Instead, the cell potential is simply pushed closer to the open-circuit potential. We also show that in many cases, the homogenised battery model can be solved analytically, making it ideal for use in on-board thermal management systems.
Li-ion rechargeable batteries have enabled the wireless revolution transforming global communication. Future challenges, however, demands distributed energy supply at a level that is not feasible with the current energy-storage technology. New materials, capable of providing higher energy density are needed. Here we report a new class of lithium-ion batteries based on a graphene ink anode and a lithium iron phosphate cathode. By carefully balancing the cell composition and suppressing the initial irreversible capacity of the anode, we demonstrate an optimal battery performance in terms of specific capacity, i.e. 165 mAhg-1, estimated energy density of about 190 Whkg-1 and life, with a stable operation for over 80 charge-discharge cycles. We link these unique properties to the graphene nanoflake anode displaying crystalline order and high uptake of lithium at the edges, as well as to its structural and morphological optimization in relation to the overall battery composition. Our approach, compatible with any printing technologies, is cheap and scalable and opens up new opportunities for the development of high-capacity Li-ion batteries.
The drying process is a crucial step in electrode manufacture as it can affect the component distribution within the electrode. Phenomena such as binder migration can have negative effects in the form of poor cell performance (e.g. capacity fade) or mechanical failure (e.g. electrode delamination from the current collector). We present a mathematical model that tracks the evolution of the binder concentration in the electrode during drying. Solutions to the model predict that low drying rates lead to a favourable homogeneous binder profile across the electrode film, whereas high drying rates result in an unfavourable accumulation of binder near the evaporation surface. These results show strong qualitative agreement with experimental observations and provide a cogent explanation for why fast drying conditions result in poorly performing electrodes. Finally, we provide some guidelines on how the drying process could be optimised to offer relatively short drying times whilst simultaneously maintaining a roughly homogeneous binder distribution.
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