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Register a new userDigital Contact Tracing Using IP Colocation
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The spread of an infectious disease through a population can be modeled using a network or a graph. In digital advertising, internet device graphs are graph data sets that organize identifiers produced by mobile phones, PCs, TVs, and tablets as they access media on the internet. Characterized by immense scale, they have become ubiquitous as they enable targeted advertising, content customization and tracking. This paper posits that internet device graphs, in particular those based on IP colocation, can provide significant utility in predicting and modeling the spread of infectious disease. Starting the week of March 16th, 2020, in the United States, many individuals began to `shelter-in-place as schools and workplaces across the nation closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper quantifies the effect of the shelter-in-place orders on a large scale internet device graph with more than a billion nodes by studying the graph before and after orders went into effect. The effects are clearly visible. The structure of the graph suggests behavior least conducive to transmission of infection occurred in the US between April 12th and 19th, 2020. This paper also discusses the utility of device graphs for i) contact tracing, ii) prediction of `hot spots, iii) simulation of infectious disease spread, and iv) delivery of advertisement-based warnings to potentially exposed individuals. The paper also posits an overarching question: can systems and datasets amassed by entities in the digital ad ecosystem aid in the fight against COVID-19?
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Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others (COVID-19). Here, we perform an exhaustive evaluation of random testing and contact tracing on novel superspreading random networks to try to identify which epidemics are more containable with such measures. We also explore the suitability of positive rates as a proxy of the actual infection statuses of the population. Moreover, we propose novel ideal strategies to explore the potential limits of both testing and tracing strategies. Our study counsels caution, both at assuming epidemic containment and at inferring the actual epidemic progress, with current testing or tracing strategies. However, it also brings a ray of light for the future, with the promise of the potential of novel testing strategies that can achieve great effectiveness.
During a pandemic, contact tracing is an essential tool to drive down the infection rate within a population. To accelerate the laborious manual contact tracing process, digital contact tracing (DCT) tools can track contact events transparently and privately by using the sensing and signaling capabilities of the ubiquitous cell phone. However, an effective DCT must not only preserve user privacy but also augment the existing manual contact tracing process. Indeed, not every member of a population may own a cell phone or have a DCT app installed and enabled. We present KHOVID to fulfill the combined goal of manual contact-tracing interoperability and DCT user privacy. At KHOVIDs core is a privacy-friendly mechanism to encode user trajectories using geolocation data. Manual contact tracing data can be integrated through the same geolocation format. The accuracy of the geolocation data from DCT is improved using Bluetooth proximity detection, and we propose a novel method to encode Bluetooth ephemeral IDs. This contribution describes the detailed design of KHOVID; presents a prototype implementation including an app and server software; and presents a validation based on simulation and field experiments. We also compare the strengths of KHOVID with other, earlier proposals of DCT.
Digital contact tracing of an infected person, testing the possible infection for the contacted persons, and isolation play a crucial role in alleviating the outbreak. Here, we design a dynamic graph streaming algorithm that can trace the contacts under the control of the Public Health Authorities (PHA). Our algorithm receives proximity data from the mobile devices as contact data streams and uses a sliding window model to construct a dynamic contact graph sketch. Prominently, we introduce the edge label of the contact graph as a binary contact vector, which acts like a sliding window and holds the latest D days (incubation period) of temporal social interactions. Notably, the algorithm prepares the direct and indirect (multilevel) contact list from the contact graph sketch for a given set of infected persons. Finally, the algorithm also uses a disjoint set data structure to construct the infection pathways for the trace list. The present study offers the design of algorithms with underlying data structures for digital contact trace relevant to the proximity data produced by Bluetooth enabled mobile devices. Our analysis reveals that for COVID-19 close contact parameters, the storage space requires maintaining the contact graph of ten million users; having 14 days of close contact data in the PHA server takes 55 Gigabytes of memory and preparation of the contact list for a given set of the infected person depends on the size of the infected list. Our centralized digital contact tracing framework can also be applicable for other relevant diseases parameterized by an incubation period and proximity duration of contacts.
Isolation of symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing of their nonsymptomatic contacts are fundamental strategies for mitigating the current COVID-19 pandemic. The breaking of contagion chains relies on two complementary strategies: manual reconstruction of contacts based on interviews and a digital (app-based) privacy-preserving contact tracing. We compare their effectiveness using model parameters tailored to describe SARS-CoV-2 diffusion within the activity-driven model, a general empirically validated framework for network dynamics. We show that, even for equal probability of tracing a contact, manual tracing robustly performs better than the digital protocol, also taking into account the intrinsic delay and limited scalability of the manual procedure. This result is explained in terms of the stochastic sampling occurring during the case-by-case manual reconstruction of contacts, contrasted with the intrinsically prearranged nature of digital tracing, determined by the decision to adopt the app or not by each individual. The better performance of manual tracing is enhanced by heterogeneity in agent behavior: superspreaders not adopting the app are completely invisible to digital contact tracing, while they can be easily traced manually, due to their multiple contacts. We show that this intrinsic difference makes the manual procedure dominant in realistic hybrid protocols.
Humans interact through numerous channels to build and maintain social connections: they meet face-to-face, initiate phone calls or send text messages, and interact via social media. Although it is known that the network of physical contacts, for example, is distinct from the network arising from communication events via phone calls and instant messages, the extent to which these networks differ is not clear. In fact, the network structure of these channels shows large structural variations. Each network of interactions, however, contains both central and peripheral individuals: central members are characterized by higher connectivity and can reach a high fraction of the network within a low number of connections, contrary to the nodes on the periphery. Here we show that the various channels account for diverse relationships between pairs of individuals and the corresponding interaction patterns across channels differ to an extent that hinders the simple reduction of social ties to a single layer. Furthemore, the origin and purpose of each network also determine the role of their respective central members: highly connected individuals in the person-to-person networks interact with their environment in a regular manner, while members central in the social communication networks display irregular behavior with respect to their physical contacts and are more active through rare, social events. These results suggest that due to the inherently different functions of communication channels, each one favors different social behaviors and different strategies for interacting with the environment. Our findings can facilitate the understanding of the varying roles and impact individuals have on the population, which can further shed light on the prediction and prevention of epidemic outbreaks, or information propagation.
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