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Register a new userBlackBox: Generalizable Reconstruction of Extremal Values from Incomplete Spatio-Temporal Data
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We describe our submission to the Extreme Value Analysis 2019 Data Challenge in which teams were asked to predict extremes of sea surface temperature anomaly within spatio-temporal regions of missing data. We present a computational framework which reconstructs missing data using convolutional deep neural networks. Conditioned on incomplete data, we employ autoencoder-like models as multivariate conditional distributions from which possible reconstructions of the complete dataset are sampled using imputed noise. In order to mitigate bias introduced by any one particular model, a prediction ensemble is constructed to create the final distribution of extremal values. Our method does not rely on expert knowledge in order to accurately reproduce dynamic features of a complex oceanographic system with minimal assumptions. The obtained results promise reusability and generalization to other domains.
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The Blood-Oxygen-Level-Dependent (BOLD) signal of resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI) records the temporal dynamics of intrinsic functional networks in the brain. However, existing deep learning methods applied to rs-fMRI either neglect the functional dependency between different brain regions in a network or discard the information in the temporal dynamics of brain activity. To overcome those shortcomings, we propose to formulate functional connectivity networks within the context of spatio-temporal graphs. We train a spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) on short sub-sequences of the BOLD time series to model the non-stationary nature of functional connectivity. Simultaneously, the model learns the importance of graph edges within ST-GCN to gain insight into the functional connectivities contributing to the prediction. In analyzing the rs-fMRI of the Human Connectome Project (HCP, N=1,091) and the National Consortium on Alcohol and Neurodevelopment in Adolescence (NCANDA, N=773), ST-GCN is significantly more accurate than common approaches in predicting gender and age based on BOLD signals. Furthermore, the brain regions and functional connections significantly contributing to the predictions of our model are important markers according to the neuroscience literature.
The generalization abilities of heuristic optimizers may deteriorate with the increment of the search space dimensionality. To achieve generalized performance across Large Scale Blackbox Optimization (LSBO) tasks, it ispossible to ensemble several heuristics and devise a meta-heuristic to control their initiation. This paper first proposes a methodology of transforming LSBO problems into online decision processes to maximize efficiency of resource utilization. Then, using the perspective of multi-armed bandits with non-stationary reward distributions, we propose a meta-heuristic based on Temporal Estimation of Rewards (TER) to address such decision process. TER uses a window for temporal credit assignment and Boltzmann exploration to balance the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. The prior-free TER generalizes across LSBO tasks with flexibility for different types of limited computational resources (e.g. time, money, etc.) and is easy to be adapted to new tasks for its simplicity and easy interface for heuristic articulation. Tests on the benchmarks validate the problem formulation and suggest significant effectiveness: when TER is articulated with three heuristics, competitive performance is reported across different sets of benchmark problems with search dimensions up to 10000.
To accommodate the unprecedented increase of commercial airlines over the next ten years, the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) has been implemented in the USA that records large-scale Air Traffic Management (ATM) data to make air travel safer, more efficient, and more economical. A key role of collaborative decision making for air traffic scheduling and airspace resource management is the accurate prediction of flight delay. There has been a lot of attempts to apply data-driven methods such as machine learning to forecast flight delay situation using air traffic data of departures and arrivals. However, most of them omit en-route spatial information of airlines and temporal correlation between serial flights which results in inaccuracy prediction. In this paper, we present a novel aviation delay prediction system based on stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for commercial flights. The system learns from historical trajectories from automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) messages and uses the correlative geolocations to collect indispensable features such as climatic elements, air traffic, airspace, and human factors data along posterior routes. These features are integrated and then are fed into our proposed regression model. The latent spatio-temporal patterns of data are abstracted and learned in the LSTM architecture. Compared with previous schemes, our approach is demonstrated to be more robust and accurate for large hub airports.
We established a Spatio-Temporal Neural Network, namely STNN, to forecast the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak worldwide in 2020. The basic structure of STNN is similar to the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) incorporating with not only temporal data but also spatial features. Two improved STNN architectures, namely the STNN with Augmented Spatial States (STNN-A) and the STNN with Input Gate (STNN-I), are proposed, which ensure more predictability and flexibility. STNN and its variants can be trained using Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm and its improved variants (e.g., Adam, AdaGrad and RMSProp). Our STNN models are compared with several classical epidemic prediction models, including the fully-connected neural network (BPNN), and the recurrent neural network (RNN), the classical curve fitting models, as well as the SEIR dynamical system model. Numerical simulations demonstrate that STNN models outperform many others by providing more accurate fitting and prediction, and by handling both spatial and temporal data.
We study inversion of the spherical Radon transform with centers on a sphere (the data acquisition set). Such
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