No Arabic abstract
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is widely used to account for the preferences of a risk-averse agent in the extreme loss scenarios. To study the effectiveness of randomization in interdiction games with an interdictor that is both risk and ambiguity averse, we introduce a distributionally robust network interdiction game where the interdictor randomizes over the feasible interdiction plans in order to minimize the worst-case CVaR of the flow with respect to both the unknown distribution of the capacity of the arcs and his mixed strategy over interdicted arcs. The flow player, on the contrary, maximizes the total flow in the network. By using the budgeted uncertainty set, we control the degree of conservatism in the model and reformulate the interdictors non-linear problem as a bi-convex optimization problem. For solving this problem to any given optimality level, we devise a spatial branch and bound algorithm that uses the McCormick inequalities and reduced reformulation linearization technique (RRLT) to obtain convex relaxation of the problem. We also develop a column generation algorithm to identify the optimal support of the convex relaxation which is then used in the coordinate descent algorithm to determine the upper bounds. The efficiency and convergence of the spatial branch and bound algorithm is established in the numerical experiments. Further, our numerical experiments show that randomized strategies can have significantly better in-sample and out-of-sample performance than optimal deterministic ones.
The term rational has become synonymous with maximizing expected payoff in the definition of the best response in Nash setting. In this work, we consider stochastic games in which players engage only once, or at most a limited number of times. In such games, it may not be rational for players to maximize their expected payoff as they cannot wait for the Law of Large Numbers to take effect. We instead define a new notion of a risk-averse best response, that results in a risk-averse equilibrium (RAE) in which players choose to play the strategy that maximizes the probability of them being rewarded the most in a single round of the game rather than maximizing the expected received reward, subject to the actions of other players. We prove the risk-averse equilibrium to exist in all finite games and numerically compare its performance to Nash equilibrium in finite-time stochastic games.
The fast-growing market of autonomous vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and fleets in general necessitates the design of smart and automatic navigation systems considering the stochastic latency along different paths in the traffic network. The longstanding shortest path problem in a deterministic network, whose counterpart in a congestion game setting is Wardrop equilibrium, has been studied extensively, but it is well known that finding the notion of an optimal path is challenging in a traffic network with stochastic arc delays. In this work, we propose three classes of risk-averse equilibria for an atomic stochastic congestion game in its general form where the arc delay distributions are load dependent and not necessarily independent of each other. The three classes are risk-averse equilibrium (RAE), mean-variance equilibrium (MVE), and conditional value at risk level $alpha$ equilibrium (CVaR$_alpha$E) whose notions of risk-averse best responses are based on maximizing the probability of taking the shortest path, minimizing a linear combination of mean and variance of path delay, and minimizing the expected delay at a specified risky quantile of the delay distributions, respectively. We prove that for any finite stochastic atomic congestion game, the risk-averse, mean-variance, and CVaR$_alpha$ equilibria exist. We show that for risk-averse travelers, the Braess paradox may not occur to the extent presented originally since players do not necessarily travel along the shortest path in expectation, but they take the uncertainty of travel time into consideration as well. We show through some examples that the price of anarchy can be improved when players are risk-averse and travel according to one of the three classes of risk-averse equilibria rather than the Wardrop equilibrium.
This paper studies a planar multiplayer Homicidal Chauffeur reach-avoid differential game, where each pursuer is a Dubins car and each evader has simple motion. The pursuers aim to protect a goal region cooperatively from the evaders. Due to the high-dimensional strategy space among pursuers, we decompose the whole game into multiple one-pursuer-one-evader subgames, each of which is solved in an analytical approach instead of solving Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs equations. For each subgame, an evasion region (ER) is introduced, based on which a pursuit strategy guaranteeing the winning of a simple-motion pursuer under specific conditions is proposed. Motivated by the simple-motion pursuer, a strategy for a Dubins-car pursuer is proposed when the pursuer-evader configuration satisfies separation condition (SC) and interception orientation (IO). The necessary and sufficient condition on capture radius, minimum turning radius and speed ratio to guarantee the pursuit winning is derived. When the IO is not satisfied (Non-IO), a heading adjustment pursuit strategy is proposed, and the condition to achieve IO within a finite time, is given. Then, a two-step pursuit strategy is proposed for the SC and Non-IO case. A non-convex optimization problem is introduced to give a condition guaranteeing the winning of the pursuer. A polynomial equation gives a lower bound of the non-convex problem, providing a sufficient and efficient pursuit winning condition. Finally, these pairwise outcomes are collected for the pursuer-evader matching. Simulations are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.
Specifying a proper input distribution is often a challenging task in simulation modeling. In practice, there may be multiple plausible distributions that can fit the input data reasonably well, especially when the data volume is not large. In this paper, we consider the problem of selecting the best from a finite set of simulated alternatives, in the presence of such input uncertainty. We model such uncertainty by an ambiguity set consisting of a finite number of plausible input distributions, and aim to select the alternative with the best worst-case mean performance over the ambiguity set. We refer to this problem as robust selection of the best (RSB). To solve the RSB problem, we develop a two-stage selection procedure and a sequential selection procedure; we then prove that both procedures can achieve at least a user-specified probability of correct selection under mild conditions. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the computational efficiency of the two procedures. Finally, we apply the RSB approach to study a queueing systems staffing problem using synthetic data and an appointment-scheduling problem using real data from a large hospital in China. We find that the RSB approach can generate decisions significantly better than other widely used approaches.
In some games, additional information hurts a player, e.g., in games with first-mover advantage, the second-mover is hurt by seeing the first-movers move. What properties of a game determine whether it has such negative value of information for a particular player? Can a game have negative value of information for all players? To answer such questions, we generalize the definition of marginal utility of a good to define the marginal utility of a parameter vector specifying a game. So rather than analyze the global structure of the relationship between a games parameter vector and player behavior, as in previous work, we focus on the local structure of that relationship. This allows us to prove that generically, every game can have negative marginal value of information, unless one imposes a priori constraints on allowed changes to the games parameter vector. We demonstrate these and related results numerically, and discuss their implications.