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Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting

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 Added by Mingxing Xu
 Publication date 2020
and research's language is English




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Traffic forecasting has emerged as a core component of intelligent transportation systems. However, timely accurate traffic forecasting, especially long-term forecasting, still remains an open challenge due to the highly nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies of traffic flows. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm of Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks (STTNs) that leverages dynamical directed spatial dependencies and long-range temporal dependencies to improve the accuracy of long-term traffic forecasting. Specifically, we present a new variant of graph neural networks, named spatial transformer, by dynamically modeling directed spatial dependencies with self-attention mechanism to capture realtime traffic conditions as well as the directionality of traffic flows. Furthermore, different spatial dependency patterns can be jointly modeled with multi-heads attention mechanism to consider diverse relationships related to different factors (e.g. similarity, connectivity and covariance). On the other hand, the temporal transformer is utilized to model long-range bidirectional temporal dependencies across multiple time steps. Finally, they are composed as a block to jointly model the spatial-temporal dependencies for accurate traffic prediction. Compared to existing works, the proposed model enables fast and scalable training over a long range spatial-temporal dependencies. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves competitive results compared with the state-of-the-arts, especially forecasting long-term traffic flows on real-world PeMS-Bay and PeMSD7(M) datasets.

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Spatial-temporal forecasting has attracted tremendous attention in a wide range of applications, and traffic flow prediction is a canonical and typical example. The complex and long-range spatial-temporal correlations of traffic flow bring it to a most intractable challenge. Existing works typically utilize shallow graph convolution networks (GNNs) and temporal extracting modules to model spatial and temporal dependencies respectively. However, the representation ability of such models is limited due to: (1) shallow GNNs are incapable to capture long-range spatial correlations, (2) only spatial connections are considered and a mass of semantic connections are ignored, which are of great importance for a comprehensive understanding of traffic networks. To this end, we propose Spatial-Temporal Graph Ordinary Differential Equation Networks (STGODE). Specifically, we capture spatial-temporal dynamics through a tensor-based ordinary differential equation (ODE), as a result, deeper networks can be constructed and spatial-temporal features are utilized synchronously. To understand the network more comprehensively, semantical adjacency matrix is considered in our model, and a well-design temporal dialated convolution structure is used to capture long term temporal dependencies. We evaluate our model on multiple real-world traffic datasets and superior performance is achieved over state-of-the-art baselines.
158 - Xu Chen , Yuanxing Zhang , Lun Du 2020
Traffic flow forecasting is of great significance for improving the efficiency of transportation systems and preventing emergencies. Due to the highly non-linearity and intricate evolutionary patterns of short-term and long-term traffic flow, existing methods often fail to take full advantage of spatial-temporal information, especially the various temporal patterns with different period shifting and the characteristics of road segments. Besides, the globality representing the absolute value of traffic status indicators and the locality representing the relative value have not been considered simultaneously. This paper proposes a neural network model that focuses on the globality and locality of traffic networks as well as the temporal patterns of traffic data. The cycle-based dilated deformable convolution block is designed to capture different time-varying trends on each node accurately. Our model can extract both global and local spatial information since we combine two graph convolutional network methods to learn the representations of nodes and edges. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that the model can scrutinize the spatial-temporal correlation of traffic data, and its performance is better than the compared state-of-the-art methods. Further analysis indicates that the locality and globality of the traffic networks are critical to traffic flow prediction and the proposed TSSRGCN model can adapt to the various temporal traffic patterns.
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The concept of mobility prediction represents one of the key enablers for an efficient management of future cellular networks, which tend to be progressively more elaborate and dense due to the aggregation of multiple technologies. In this letter we aim to investigate the problem of cellular traffic prediction over a metropolitan area and propose a deep regression (DR) approach to model its complex spatio-temporal dynamics. DR is instrumental in capturing multi-scale and multi-domain dependences of mobile data by solving an image-to-image regression problem. A parametric relationship between input and expected output is defined and grid search is put in place to isolate and optimize performance. Experimental results confirm that the proposed method achieves a lower prediction error against stateof-the-art algorithms. We validate forecasting performance and stability by using a large public dataset of a European Provider.

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