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Register a new userModeling the uncertainties of solar-system ephemerides for robust gravitational-wave searches with pulsar timing arrays
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The regularity of pulsar emissions becomes apparent once we reference the pulses times of arrivals to the inertial rest frame of the solar system. It follows that errors in the determination of Earths position with respect to the solar-system barycenter can appear as a time-correlated bias in pulsar-timing residual time series, affecting the searches for low-frequency gravitational waves performed with pulsar timing arrays. Indeed, recent array datasets yield different gravitational-wave background upper limits and detection statistics when analyzed with different solar-system ephemerides. Crucially, the ephemerides do not generally provide usable error representations. In this article we describe the motivation, construction, and application of a physical model of solar-system ephemeris uncertainties, which focuses on the degrees of freedom (Jupiters orbital elements) most relevant to gravitational-wave searches with pulsar timing arrays. This model, BayesEphem, was used to derive ephemeris-robust results in NANOGravs 11-yr stochastic-background search, and it provides a foundation for future searches by NANOGrav and other consortia. The analysis and simulations reported here suggest that ephemeris modeling reduces the gravitational-wave sensitivity of the 11-yr dataset; and that this degeneracy will vanish with improved ephemerides and with the longer pulsar timing datasets that will become available in the near future.
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We have begun an exciting era for gravitational wave detection, as several world-leading experiments are breaching the threshold of anticipated signal strengths. Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are pan-Galactic gravitational wave detectors that are already cutting into the expected strength of gravitational waves from cosmic strings and binary supermassive black holes in the nHz-$mu$Hz gravitational wave band. These limits are leading to constraints on the evolutionary state of the Universe. Here, we provide a broad review of this field, from how pulsars are used as tools for detection, to astrophysical sources of uncertainty in the signals PTAs aim to see, to the primary current challenge areas for PTA work. This review aims to provide an up-to-date reference point for new parties interested in the field of gravitational wave detection via pulsar timing.
In-spiraling supermassive black holes should emit gravitational waves, which would produce characteristic distortions in the time of arrival residuals from millisecond pulsars. Multiple national and regional consortia have constructed pulsar timing arrays by precise timing of different sets of millisecond pulsars. An essential aspect of precision timing is the transfer of the times of arrival to a (quasi-)inertial frame, conventionally the solar system barycenter. The barycenter is determined from the knowledge of the planetary masses and orbits, which has been refined over the past 50 years by multiple spacecraft. Within the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), uncertainties on the solar system barycenter are emerging as an important element of the NANOGrav noise budget. We describe what is known about the solar system barycenter, touch upon how uncertainties in it affect gravitational wave studies with pulsar timing arrays, and consider future trends in spacecraft navigation.
Rapidly-rotating neutron stars are the only candidates for persistent high-frequency gravitational wave emission, for which a targeted search can be performed based on the spin period measured from electromagnetic (e.g. radio and X-ray) observations. The principal factor determining the sensitivity of such searches is the measurement precision of the physical parameters of the system. Neutron stars in X-ray binaries present additional computational demands for searches due to the uncertainty in the binary parameters. We present the results of a pilot study with the goal of improving the measurement precision of binary orbital parameters for candidate gravitational wave sources. We observed the optical counterpart of Sco X-1 in 2011 June with the William Herschel Telescope, and also made use of Very Large Telescope observations in 2011, to provide an additional epoch of radial-velocity measurements to earlier measurements in 1999. From a circular orbit fit to the combined dataset, we obtained an improvement of a factor of two in the orbital period precision, and a factor of 2.5 in the epoch of inferior conjunction $T_0$. While the new orbital period is consistent with the previous value of Gottllieb et al. (1975), the new $T_0$ (and the amplitude of variation of the Bowen line velocities) exhibited a significant shift, which we attribute to variations in the emission geometry with epoch. We propagate the uncertainties on these parameters through to the expected Advanced LIGO & VIRGO detector network observation epochs, and quantify the improvement obtained with additional optical observations.
The NANOGrav Collaboration reported strong Bayesian evidence for a common-spectrum stochastic process in its 12.5-yr pulsar timing array dataset, with median characteristic strain amplitude at periods of a year of $A_{rm yr} = 1.92^{+0.75}_{-0.55} times 10^{-15}$. However, evidence for the quadrupolar Hellings & Downs interpulsar correlations, which are characteristic of gravitational wave signals, was not yet significant. We emulate and extend the NANOGrav dataset, injecting a wide range of stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) signals that encompass a variety of amplitudes and spectral shapes, and quantify three key milestones: (I) Given the amplitude measured in the 12.5 yr analysis and assuming this signal is a GWB, we expect to accumulate robust evidence of an interpulsar-correlated GWB signal with 15--17 yrs of data, i.e., an additional 2--5 yrs from the 12.5 yr dataset; (II) At the initial detection, we expect a fractional uncertainty of $40%$ on the power-law strain spectrum slope, which is sufficient to distinguish a GWB of supermassive black-hole binary origin from some models predicting more exotic origins;(III) Similarly, the measured GWB amplitude will have an uncertainty of $44%$ upon initial detection, allowing us to arbitrate between some population models of supermassive black-hole binaries. In addition, power-law models are distinguishable from those having low-frequency spectral turnovers once 20~yrs of data are reached. Even though our study is based on the NANOGrav data, we also derive relations that allow for a generalization to other pulsar-timing array datasets. Most notably, by combining the data of individual arrays into the International Pulsar Timing Array, all of these milestones can be reached significantly earlier.
We discuss the theory of pulsar-timing and astrometry probes of a stochastic gravitational-wave background with a recently developed total-angular-momentum (TAM) formalism for cosmological perturbations. We review the formalism, emphasizing in particular the features relevant for this work and describe the observables we consider (i.e. the pulsar redshift and stellar angular displacement). Using the TAM approach, we calculate the angular power spectra for the observables and from them derive angular auto- and cross-correlation functions. We provide the full set of power spectra and correlation functions not only for the standard transverse-traceless propagating degrees of freedom in general relativity, but also for the four additional non-Einsteinian polarizations that may arise in alternative-gravity theories. We discuss how pulsar-timing and astrometry surveys can complement and serve as cross checks to one another and comment on the importance of testing the chirality of the gravitational-wave background as a tool to understand the nature of its sources. A simple rederivation of the power spectra from the plane-wave formalism is provided in an Appendix.
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