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Continuous-time event sequences represent discrete events occurring in continuous time. Such sequences arise frequently in real-life. Usually we expect the sequences to follow some regular pattern over time. However, sometimes these patterns may be interrupted by unexpected absence or occurrences of events. Identification of these unexpected cases can be very important as they may point to abnormal situations that need human attention. In this work, we study and develop methods for detecting outliers in continuous-time event sequences, including unexpected absence and unexpected occurrences of events. Since the patterns that event sequences tend to follow may change in different contexts, we develop outlier detection methods based on point processes that can take context information into account. Our methods are based on Bayesian decision theory and hypothesis testing with theoretical guarantees. To test the performance of the methods, we conduct experiments on both synthetic data and real-world clinical data and show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.
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Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance sampling---to impute the missing events in an incomplete sequence. We develop a trainable family of proposal distributions based on a type of bidirectional continuous-time LSTM: Bidirectionality lets the proposals condition on future observations, not just on the past as in particle filtering. Our method can sample an ensemble of possible complete sequences (particles), from which we form a single consensus prediction that has low Bayes risk under our chosen loss metric. We experiment in multiple synthetic and real domains, using different missingness mechanisms, and modeling the complete sequences in each domain with a neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner 2017). On held-out incomplete sequences, our method is effective at inferring the ground-truth unobserved events, with particle smoothing consistently improving upon particle filtering.
Outlier detection is an important data mining task with numerous practical applications such as intrusion detection, credit card fraud detection, and video surveillance. However, given a specific complicated task with big data, the process of building a powerful deep learning based system for outlier detection still highly relies on human expertise and laboring trials. Although Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown its promise in discovering effective deep architectures in various domains, such as image classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation, contemporary NAS methods are not suitable for outlier detection due to the lack of intrinsic search space, unstable search process, and low sample efficiency. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we propose AutoOD, an automated outlier detection framework, which aims to search for an optimal neural network model within a predefined search space. Specifically, we firstly design a curiosity-guided search strategy to overcome the curse of local optimality. A controller, which acts as a search agent, is encouraged to take actions to maximize the information gain about the controllers internal belief. We further introduce an experience replay mechanism based on self-imitation learning to improve the sample efficiency. Experimental results on various real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that the deep model identified by AutoOD achieves the best performance, comparing with existing handcrafted models and traditional search methods.
Fairness and Outlier Detection (OD) are closely related, as it is exactly the goal of OD to spot rare, minority samples in a given population. However, when being a minority (as defined by protected variables, such as race/ethnicity/sex/age) does not reflect positive-class membership (such as criminal/fraud), OD produces unjust outcomes. Surprisingly, fairness-aware OD has been almost untouched in prior work, as fair machine learning literature mainly focuses on supervised settings. Our work aims to bridge this gap. Specifically, we develop desiderata capturing well-motivated fairness criteria for OD, and systematically formalize the fair OD problem. Further, guided by our desiderata, we propose FairOD, a fairness-aware outlier detector that has the following desirable properties: FairOD (1) exhibits treatment parity at test time, (2) aims to flag equal proportions of samples from all groups (i.e. obtain group fairness, via statistical parity), and (3) strives to flag truly high-risk samples within each group. Extensive experiments on a diverse set of synthetic and real world datasets show that FairOD produces outcomes that are fair with respect to protected variables, while performing comparable to (and in some cases, even better than) fairness-agnostic detectors in terms of detection performance.
We study the estimation of policy gradients for continuous-time systems with known dynamics. By reframing policy learning in continuous-time, we show that it is possible construct a more efficient and accurate gradient estimator. The standard back-propagation through time estimator (BPTT) computes exact gradients for a crude discretization of the continuous-time system. In contrast, we approximate continuous-time gradients in the original system. With the explicit goal of estimating continuous-time gradients, we are able to discretize adaptively and construct a more efficient policy gradient estimator which we call the Continuous-Time Policy Gradient (CTPG). We show that replacing BPTT policy gradients with more efficient CTPG estimates results in faster and more robust learning in a variety of control tasks and simulators.
Outliers are ubiquitous in modern data sets. Distance-based techniques are a popular non-parametric approach to outlier detection as they require no prior assumptions on the data generating distribution and are simple to implement. Scaling these techniques to massive data sets without sacrificing accuracy is a challenging task. We propose a novel algorithm based on the intuition that outliers have a significant influence on the quality of divergence-based clustering solutions. We propose sensitivity - the worst-case impact of a data point on the clustering objective - as a measure of outlierness. We then prove that influence, a (non-trivial) upper-bound on the sensitivity, can be computed by a simple linear time algorithm. To scale beyond a single machine, we propose a communication efficient distributed algorithm. In an extensive experimental evaluation, we demonstrate the effectiveness and establish the statistical significance of the proposed approach. In particular, it outperforms the most popular distance-based approaches while being several orders of magnitude faster.
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