No Arabic abstract
Understanding how adult humans learn non-native speech categories such as tone information has shed novel insights into the mechanisms underlying experience-dependent brain plasticity. Scientists have traditionally examined these questions using longitudinal learning experiments under a multi-category decision making paradigm. Drift-diffusion processes are popular in such contexts for their ability to mimic underlying neural mechanisms. Motivated by these problems, we develop a novel Bayesian semiparametric inverse Gaussian drift-diffusion mixed model for multi-alternative decision making in longitudinal settings. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior computation. We evaluate the methods empirical performances through synthetic experiments. Applied to our motivating longitudinal tone learning study, the method provides novel insights into how the biologically interpretable model parameters evolve with learning, differ between input-response tone combinations, and differ between well and poorly performing adults.
This paper demonstrates the advantages of sharing information about unknown features of covariates across multiple model components in various nonparametric regression problems including multivariate, heteroscedastic, and semi-continuous responses. In this paper, we present methodology which allows for information to be shared nonparametrically across various model components using Bayesian sum-of-tree models. Our simulation results demonstrate that sharing of information across related model components is often very beneficial, particularly in sparse high-dimensional problems in which variable selection must be conducted. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing medical expenditure data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). To facilitate the Bayesian nonparametric regression analysis, we develop two novel models for analyzing the MEPS data using Bayesian additive regression trees - a heteroskedastic log-normal hurdle model with a shrink-towards-homoskedasticity prior, and a gamma hurdle model.
Studying the neurological, genetic and evolutionary basis of human vocal communication mechanisms using animal vocalization models is an important field of neuroscience. The data sets typically comprise structured sequences of syllables or `songs produced by animals from different genotypes under different social contexts. We develop a novel Bayesian semiparametric framework for inference in such data sets. Our approach is built on a novel class of mixed effects Markov transition models for the songs that accommodates exogenous influences of genotype and context as well as animal-specific heterogeneity. We design efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior computation. Crucial advantages of the proposed approach include its ability to provide insights into key scientific queries related to global and local influences of the exogenous predictors on the transition dynamics via automated tests of hypotheses. The methodology is illustrated using simulation experiments and the aforementioned motivating application in neuroscience.
The article develops marginal models for multivariate longitudinal responses. Overall, the model consists of five regression submodels, one for the mean and four for the covariance matrix, with the latter resulting by considering various matrix decompositions. The decompositions that we employ are intuitive, easy to understand, and they do not rely on any assumptions such as the presence of an ordering among the multivariate responses. The regression submodels are semiparametric, with unknown functions represented by basis function expansions. We use spike-slap priors for the regression coefficients to achieve variable selection and function regularization, and to obtain parameter estimates that account for model uncertainty. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior sampling is developed. The simulation studies presented investigate the effects of priors on posteriors, the gains that one may have when considering multivariate longitudinal analyses instead of univariate ones, and whether these gains can counteract the negative effects of missing data. We apply the methods on a highly unbalanced longitudinal dataset with four responses observed over of period of 20 years
We introduce a new class of semiparametric latent variable models for long memory discretized event data. The proposed methodology is motivated by a study of bird vocalizations in the Amazon rain forest; the timings of vocalizations exhibit self-similarity and long range dependence ruling out models based on Poisson processes. The proposed class of FRActional Probit (FRAP) models is based on thresholding of a latent process consisting of an additive expansion of a smooth Gaussian process with a fractional Brownian motion. We develop a Bayesian approach to inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo, and show good performance in simulation studies. Applying the methods to the Amazon bird vocalization data, we find substantial evidence for self-similarity and non-Markovian/Poisson dynamics. To accommodate the bird vocalization data, in which there are many different species of birds exhibiting their own vocalization dynamics, a hierarchical expansion of FRAP is provided in Supplementary Materials.
The identification of factors associated with mental and behavioral disorders in early childhood is critical both for psychopathology research and the support of primary health care practices. Motivated by the Millennium Cohort Study, in this paper we study the effect of a comprehensive set of covariates on childrens emotional and behavioural trajectories in England. To this end, we develop a Quantile Mixed Hidden Markov Model for joint estimation of multiple quantiles in a linear regression setting for multivariate longitudinal data. The novelty of the proposed approach is based on the Multivariate Asymmetric Laplace distribution which allows to jointly estimate the quantiles of the univariate conditional distributions of a multivariate response, accounting for possible correlation between the outcomes. Sources of unobserved heterogeneity and serial dependency due to repeated measures are modeled through the introduction of individual-specific, time-constant random coefficients and time-varying parameters evolving over time with a Markovian structure, respectively. The inferential approach is carried out through the construction of a suitable Expectation-Maximization algorithm without parametric assumptions on the random effects distribution.