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Register a new userBayesian parameter estimation using conditional variational autoencoders for gravitational-wave astronomy
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Gravitational wave (GW) detection is now commonplace and as the sensitivity of the global network of GW detectors improves, we will observe $mathcal{O}(100)$s of transient GW events per year. The current methods used to estimate their source parameters employ optimally sensitive but computationally costly Bayesian inference approaches where typical analyses have taken between 6 hours and 5 days. For binary neutron star and neutron star black hole systems prompt counterpart electromagnetic (EM) signatures are expected on timescales of 1 second -- 1 minute and the current fastest method for alerting EM follow-up observers, can provide estimates in $mathcal{O}(1)$ minute, on a limited range of key source parameters. Here we show that a conditional variational autoencoder pre-trained on binary black hole signals can return Bayesian posterior probability estimates. The training procedure need only be performed once for a given prior parameter space and the resulting trained machine can then generate samples describing the posterior distribution $sim 6$ orders of magnitude faster than existing techniques.
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We introduce the use of autoregressive normalizing flows for rapid likelihood-free inference of binary black hole system parameters from gravitational-wave data with deep neural networks. A normalizing flow is an invertible mapping on a sample space that can be used to induce a transformation from a simple probability distribution to a more complex one: if the simple distribution can be rapidly sampled and its density evaluated, then so can the complex distribution. Our first application to gravitational waves uses an autoregressive flow, conditioned on detector strain data, to map a multivariate standard normal distribution into the posterior distribution over system parameters. We train the model on artificial strain data consisting of IMRPhenomPv2 waveforms drawn from a five-parameter $(m_1, m_2, phi_0, t_c, d_L)$ prior and stationary Gaussian noise realizations with a fixed power spectral density. This gives performance comparable to current best deep-learning approaches to gravitational-wave parameter estimation. We then build a more powerful latent variable model by incorporating autoregressive flows within the variational autoencoder framework. This model has performance comparable to Markov chain Monte Carlo and, in particular, successfully models the multimodal $phi_0$ posterior. Finally, we train the autoregressive latent variable model on an expanded parameter space, including also aligned spins $(chi_{1z}, chi_{2z})$ and binary inclination $theta_{JN}$, and show that all parameters and degeneracies are well-recovered. In all cases, sampling is extremely fast, requiring less than two seconds to draw $10^4$ posterior samples.
Using the latest numerical simulations of rotating stellar core collapse, we present a Bayesian framework to extract the physical information encoded in noisy gravitational wave signals. We fit Bayesian principal component regression models with known and unknown signal arrival times to reconstruct gravitational wave signals, and subsequently fit known astrophysical parameters on the posterior means of the principal component coefficients using a linear model. We predict the ratio of rotational kinetic energy to gravitational energy of the inner core at bounce by sampling from the posterior predictive distribution, and find that these predictions are generally very close to the true parameter values, with $90%$ credible intervals $sim 0.04$ and $sim 0.06$ wide for the known and unknown arrival time models respectively. Two supervised machine learning methods are implemented to classify precollapse differential rotation, and we find that these methods discriminate rapidly rotating progenitors particularly well. We also introduce a constrained optimization approach to model selection to find an optimal number of principal components in the signal reconstruction step. Using this approach, we select 14 principal components as the most parsimonious model.
This is an introduction to Bayesian inference with a focus on hierarchical models and hyper-parameters. We write primarily for an audience of Bayesian novices, but we hope to provide useful insights for seasoned veterans as well. Examples are drawn from gravitational-wave astronomy, though we endeavor for the presentation to be understandable to a broader audience. We begin with a review of the fundamentals: likelihoods, priors, and posteriors. Next, we discuss Bayesian evidence, Bayes factors, odds ratios, and model selection. From there, we describe how posteriors are estimated using samplers such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and nested sampling. Finally, we generalize the formalism to discuss hyper-parameters and hierarchical models. We include extensive appendices discussing the creation of credible intervals, Gaussian noise, explicit marginalization, posterior predictive distributions, and selection effects.
Gravitational waves from compact binaries measured by the LIGO and Virgo detectors are routinely analyzed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Because the evaluation of the likelihood function requires evaluating millions of waveform models that link between signal shapes and the source parameters, running Markov chains until convergence is typically expensive and requires days of computation. In this extended abstract, we provide a proof of concept that demonstrates how the latest advances in neural simulation-based inference can speed up the inference time by up to three orders of magnitude -- from days to minutes -- without impairing the performance. Our approach is based on a convolutional neural network modeling the likelihood-to-evidence ratio and entirely amortizes the computation of the posterior. We find that our model correctly estimates credible intervals for the parameters of simulated gravitational waves.
At supranuclear densities, explored in the core of neutron stars, a strong phase transition from hadronic matter to more exotic forms of matter might be present. To test this hypothesis, binary neutron-star mergers offer a unique possibility to probe matter at densities that we can not create in any existing terrestrial experiment. In this work, we show that, if present, strong phase transitions can have a measurable imprint on the binary neutron-star coalescence and the emitted gravitational-wave signal. We construct a new parameterization of the supranuclear equation of state that allows us to test for the existence of a strong phase transition and extract its characteristic properties purely from the gravitational-wave signal of the inspiraling neutron stars. We test our approach using a Bayesian inference study simulating 600 signals with three different equations of state and find that for current gravitational-wave detector networks already twelve events might be sufficient to verify the presence of a strong phase transition. Finally, we use our methodology to analyze GW170817 and GW190425, but do not find any indication that a strong phase transition is present at densities probed during the inspiral.
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