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Register a new userLightning-Fast Gravitational Wave Parameter Inference through Neural Amortization
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Gravitational waves from compact binaries measured by the LIGO and Virgo detectors are routinely analyzed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Because the evaluation of the likelihood function requires evaluating millions of waveform models that link between signal shapes and the source parameters, running Markov chains until convergence is typically expensive and requires days of computation. In this extended abstract, we provide a proof of concept that demonstrates how the latest advances in neural simulation-based inference can speed up the inference time by up to three orders of magnitude -- from days to minutes -- without impairing the performance. Our approach is based on a convolutional neural network modeling the likelihood-to-evidence ratio and entirely amortizes the computation of the posterior. We find that our model correctly estimates credible intervals for the parameters of simulated gravitational waves.
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We introduce the use of autoregressive normalizing flows for rapid likelihood-free inference of binary black hole system parameters from gravitational-wave data with deep neural networks. A normalizing flow is an invertible mapping on a sample space that can be used to induce a transformation from a simple probability distribution to a more complex one: if the simple distribution can be rapidly sampled and its density evaluated, then so can the complex distribution. Our first application to gravitational waves uses an autoregressive flow, conditioned on detector strain data, to map a multivariate standard normal distribution into the posterior distribution over system parameters. We train the model on artificial strain data consisting of IMRPhenomPv2 waveforms drawn from a five-parameter $(m_1, m_2, phi_0, t_c, d_L)$ prior and stationary Gaussian noise realizations with a fixed power spectral density. This gives performance comparable to current best deep-learning approaches to gravitational-wave parameter estimation. We then build a more powerful latent variable model by incorporating autoregressive flows within the variational autoencoder framework. This model has performance comparable to Markov chain Monte Carlo and, in particular, successfully models the multimodal $phi_0$ posterior. Finally, we train the autoregressive latent variable model on an expanded parameter space, including also aligned spins $(chi_{1z}, chi_{2z})$ and binary inclination $theta_{JN}$, and show that all parameters and degeneracies are well-recovered. In all cases, sampling is extremely fast, requiring less than two seconds to draw $10^4$ posterior samples.
Gravitational wave (GW) detection is now commonplace and as the sensitivity of the global network of GW detectors improves, we will observe $mathcal{O}(100)$s of transient GW events per year. The current methods used to estimate their source parameters employ optimally sensitive but computationally costly Bayesian inference approaches where typical analyses have taken between 6 hours and 5 days. For binary neutron star and neutron star black hole systems prompt counterpart electromagnetic (EM) signatures are expected on timescales of 1 second -- 1 minute and the current fastest method for alerting EM follow-up observers, can provide estimates in $mathcal{O}(1)$ minute, on a limited range of key source parameters. Here we show that a conditional variational autoencoder pre-trained on binary black hole signals can return Bayesian posterior probability estimates. The training procedure need only be performed once for a given prior parameter space and the resulting trained machine can then generate samples describing the posterior distribution $sim 6$ orders of magnitude faster than existing techniques.
We combine hierarchical Bayesian modeling with a flow-based deep generative network, in order to demonstrate that one can efficiently constraint numerical gravitational wave (GW) population models at a previously intractable complexity. Existing techniques for comparing data to simulation,such as discrete model selection and Gaussian process regression, can only be applied efficiently to moderate-dimension data. This limits the number of observable (e.g. chirp mass, spins.) and hyper-parameters (e.g. common envelope efficiency) one can use in a population inference. In this study, we train a network to emulate a phenomenological model with 6 observables and 4 hyper-parameters, use it to infer the properties of a simulated catalogue and compare the results to the phenomenological model. We find that a 10-layer network can emulate the phenomenological model accurately and efficiently. Our machine enables simulation-based GW population inferences to take on data at a new complexity level.
Time series analysis is ubiquitous in many fields of science including gravitational-wave astronomy, where strain time series are analyzed to infer the nature of gravitational-wave sources, e.g., black holes and neutron stars. It is common in gravitational-wave transient studies to apply a tapered window function to reduce the effects of spectral artifacts from the sharp edges of data segments. We show that the conventional analysis of tapered data fails to take into account covariance between frequency bins, which arises for all finite time series -- no matter the choice of window function. We discuss the origin of this covariance and show that as the number of gravitational-wave detections grows, and as we gain access to more high signal-to-noise ratio events, this covariance will become a non-negligible source of systematic error. We derive a framework that models the correlation induced by the window function and demonstrate this solution using both data from the first LIGO--Virgo transient catalog and simulated Gaussian noise.
Compact binary systems emit gravitational radiation which is potentially detectable by current Earth bound detectors. Extracting these signals from the instruments background noise is a complex problem and the computational cost of most current searches depends on the complexity of the source model. Deep learning may be capable of finding signals where current algorithms hit computational limits. Here we restrict our analysis to signals from non-spinning binary black holes and systematically test different strategies by which training data is presented to the networks. To assess the impact of the training strategies, we re-analyze the first published networks and directly compare them to an equivalent matched-filter search. We find that the deep learning algorithms can generalize low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) signals to high SNR ones but not vice versa. As such, it is not beneficial to provide high SNR signals during training, and fastest convergence is achieved when low SNR samples are provided early on. During testing we found that the networks are sometimes unable to recover any signals when a false alarm probability $<10^{-3}$ is required. We resolve this restriction by applying a modification we call unbounded Softmax replacement (USR) after training. With this alteration we find that the machine learning search retains $geq 97.5%$ of the sensitivity of the matched-filter search down to a false-alarm rate of 1 per month.
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