Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userMaximum Relevance and Minimum Redundancy Feature Selection Methods for a Marketing Machine Learning Platform
79
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
In machine learning applications for online product offerings and marketing strategies, there are often hundreds or thousands of features available to build such models. Feature selection is one essential method in such applications for multiple objectives: improving the prediction accuracy by eliminating irrelevant features, accelerating the model training and prediction speed, reducing the monitoring and maintenance workload for feature data pipeline, and providing better model interpretation and diagnosis capability. However, selecting an optimal feature subset from a large feature space is considered as an NP-complete problem. The mRMR (Minimum Redundancy and Maximum Relevance) feature selection framework solves this problem by selecting the relevant features while controlling for the redundancy within the selected features. This paper describes the approach to extend, evaluate, and implement the mRMR feature selection methods for classification problem in a marketing machine learning platform at Uber that automates creation and deployment of targeting and personalization models at scale. This study first extends the existing mRMR methods by introducing a non-linear feature redundancy measure and a model-based feature relevance measure. Then an extensive empirical evaluation is performed for eight different feature selection methods, using one synthetic dataset and three real-world marketing datasets at Uber to cover different use cases. Based on the empirical results, the selected mRMR method is implemented in production for the marketing machine learning platform. A description of the production implementation is provided and an online experiment deployed through the platform is discussed.
rate research
Read More
Mixture of Experts (MoE) are successful models for modeling heterogeneous data in many statistical learning problems including regression, clustering and classification. Generally fitted by maximum likelihood estimation via the well-known EM algorithm, their application to high-dimensional problems is still therefore challenging. We consider the problem of fitting and feature selection in MoE models, and propose a regularized maximum likelihood estimation approach that encourages sparse solutions for heterogeneous regression data models with potentially high-dimensional predictors. Unlike state-of-the art regularized MLE for MoE, the proposed modelings do not require an approximate of the penalty function. We develop two hybrid EM algorithms: an Expectation-Majorization-Maximization (EM/MM) algorithm, and an EM algorithm with coordinate ascent algorithm. The proposed algorithms allow to automatically obtaining sparse solutions without thresholding, and avoid matrix inversion by allowing univariate parameter updates. An experimental study shows the good performance of the algorithms in terms of recovering the actual sparse solutions, parameter estimation, and clustering of heterogeneous regression data.
We discuss promising recent contributions on quantifying feature relevance using Shapley values, where we observed some confusion on which probability distribution is the right one for dropped features. We argue that the confusion is based on not carefully distinguishing between observational and interventional conditional probabilities and try a clarification based on Pearls seminal work on causality. We conclude that unconditional rather than conditional expectations provide the right notion of dropping features in contradiction to the theoretical justification of the software package SHAP. Parts of SHAP are unaffected because unconditional expectations (which we argue to be conceptually right) are used as approximation for the conditional ones, which encouraged others to `improve SHAP in a way that we believe to be flawed.
Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its importance for severe weather warnings. Here, we provide a comprehensive review and systematic comparison of eight statistical and machine learning methods for probabilistic wind gust forecasting via ensemble postprocessing, that can be divided in three groups: State of the art postprocessing techniques from statistics (ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), member-by-member postprocessing, isotonic distributional regression), established machine learning methods (gradient-boosting extended EMOS, quantile regression forests) and neural network-based approaches (distributional regression network, Bernstein quantile network, histogram estimation network). The methods are systematically compared using six years of data from a high-resolution, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system that was run operationally at the German weather service, and hourly observations at 175 surface weather stations in Germany. While all postprocessing methods yield calibrated forecasts and are able to correct the systematic errors of the raw ensemble predictions, incorporating information from additional meteorological predictor variables beyond wind gusts leads to significant improvements in forecast skill. In particular, we propose a flexible framework of locally adaptive neural networks with different probabilistic forecast types as output, which not only significantly outperform all benchmark postprocessing methods but also learn physically consistent relations associated with the diurnal cycle, especially the evening transition of the planetary boundary layer.
Online feature selection has been an active research area in recent years. We propose a novel diverse online feature selection method based on Determinantal Point Processes (DPP). Our model aims to provide diverse features which can be composed in either a supervised or unsupervised framework. The framework aims to promote diversity based on the kernel produced on a feature level, through at most three stages: feature sampling, local criteria and global criteria for feature selection. In the feature sampling, we sample incoming stream of features using conditional DPP. The local criteria is used to assess and select streamed features (i.e. only when they arrive), we use unsupervised scale invariant methods to remove redundant features and optionally supervised methods to introduce label information to assess relevant features. Lastly, the global criteria uses regularization methods to select a global optimal subset of features. This three stage procedure continues until there are no more features arriving or some predefined stopping condition is met. We demonstrate based on experiments conducted on that this approach yields better compactness, is comparable and in some instances outperforms other state-of-the-art online feature selection methods.
An increasing number of model-agnostic interpretation techniques for machine learning (ML) models such as partial dependence plots (PDP), permutation feature importance (PFI) and Shapley values provide insightful model interpretations, but can lead to wrong conclusions if applied incorrectly. We highlight many general pitfalls of ML model interpretation, such as using interpretation techniques in the wrong context, interpreting models that do not generalize well, ignoring feature dependencies, interactions, uncertainty estimates and issues in high-dimensional settings, or making unjustified causal interpretations, and illustrate them with examples. We focus on pitfalls for global methods that describe the average model behavior, but many pitfalls also apply to local methods that explain individual predictions. Our paper addresses ML practitioners by raising awareness of pitfalls and identifying solutions for correct model interpretation, but also addresses ML researchers by discussing open issues for further research.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
