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Register a new userGeneral Pitfalls of Model-Agnostic Interpretation Methods for Machine Learning Models
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An increasing number of model-agnostic interpretation techniques for machine learning (ML) models such as partial dependence plots (PDP), permutation feature importance (PFI) and Shapley values provide insightful model interpretations, but can lead to wrong conclusions if applied incorrectly. We highlight many general pitfalls of ML model interpretation, such as using interpretation techniques in the wrong context, interpreting models that do not generalize well, ignoring feature dependencies, interactions, uncertainty estimates and issues in high-dimensional settings, or making unjustified causal interpretations, and illustrate them with examples. We focus on pitfalls for global methods that describe the average model behavior, but many pitfalls also apply to local methods that explain individual predictions. Our paper addresses ML practitioners by raising awareness of pitfalls and identifying solutions for correct model interpretation, but also addresses ML researchers by discussing open issues for further research.
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Model interpretation is essential in data mining and knowledge discovery. It can help understand the intrinsic model working mechanism and check if the model has undesired characteristics. A popular way of performing model interpretation is Instance-wise Feature Selection (IFS), which provides an importance score of each feature representing the data samples to explain how the model generates the specific output. In this paper, we propose a Model-agnostic Effective Efficient Direct (MEED) IFS framework for model interpretation, mitigating concerns about sanity, combinatorial shortcuts, model identifiability, and information transmission. Also, we focus on the following setting: using selected features to directly predict the output of the given model, which serves as a primary evaluation metric for model-interpretation methods. Apart from the features, we involve the output of the given model as an additional input to learn an explainer based on more accurate information. To learn the explainer, besides fidelity, we propose an Adversarial Infidelity Learning (AIL) mechanism to boost the explanation learning by screening relatively unimportant features. Through theoretical and experimental analysis, we show that our AIL mechanism can help learn the desired conditional distribution between selected features and targets. Moreover, we extend our framework by integrating efficient interpretation methods as proper priors to provide a warm start. Comprehensive empirical evaluation results are provided by quantitative metrics and human evaluation to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed method. Our code is publicly available online at https://github.com/langlrsw/MEED.
Interpreting a nonparametric regression model with many predictors is known to be a challenging problem. There has been renewed interest in this topic due to the extensive use of machine learning algorithms and the difficulty in understanding and explaining their input-output relationships. This paper develops a unified framework using a derivative-based approach for existing tools in the literature, including the partial-dependence plots, marginal plots and accumulated effects plots. It proposes a new interpretation technique called the accumulated total derivative effects plot and demonstrates how its components can be used to develop extensive insights in complex regression models with correlated predictors. The techniques are illustrated through simulation results.
Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its importance for severe weather warnings. Here, we provide a comprehensive review and systematic comparison of eight statistical and machine learning methods for probabilistic wind gust forecasting via ensemble postprocessing, that can be divided in three groups: State of the art postprocessing techniques from statistics (ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), member-by-member postprocessing, isotonic distributional regression), established machine learning methods (gradient-boosting extended EMOS, quantile regression forests) and neural network-based approaches (distributional regression network, Bernstein quantile network, histogram estimation network). The methods are systematically compared using six years of data from a high-resolution, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system that was run operationally at the German weather service, and hourly observations at 175 surface weather stations in Germany. While all postprocessing methods yield calibrated forecasts and are able to correct the systematic errors of the raw ensemble predictions, incorporating information from additional meteorological predictor variables beyond wind gusts leads to significant improvements in forecast skill. In particular, we propose a flexible framework of locally adaptive neural networks with different probabilistic forecast types as output, which not only significantly outperform all benchmark postprocessing methods but also learn physically consistent relations associated with the diurnal cycle, especially the evening transition of the planetary boundary layer.
While neural networks are powerful function approximators, they suffer from catastrophic forgetting when the data distribution is not stationary. One particular formalism that studies learning under non-stationary distribution is provided by continual learning, where the non-stationarity is imposed by a sequence of distinct tasks. Most methods in this space assume, however, the knowledge of task boundaries, and focus on alleviating catastrophic forgetting. In this work, we depart from this view and move the focus towards faster remembering -- i.e measuring how quickly the network recovers performance rather than measuring the networks performance without any adaptation. We argue that in many settings this can be more effective and that it opens the door to combining meta-learning and continual learning techniques, leveraging their complementary advantages. We propose a framework specific for the scenario where no information about task boundaries or task identity is given. It relies on a separation of concerns into what task is being solved and how the task should be solved. This framework is implemented by differentiating task specific parameters from task agnostic parameters, where the latter are optimized in a continual meta learning fashion, without access to multiple tasks at the same time. We showcase this framework in a supervised learning scenario and discuss the implication of the proposed formalism.
In this paper, we present a new explainability formalism designed to explain how each input variable of a test set impacts the predictions of machine learning models. Hence, we propose a group explainability formalism for trained machine learning decision rules, based on their response to the variability of the input variables distribution. In order to emphasize the impact of each input variable, this formalism uses an information theory framework that quantifies the influence of all input-output observations based on entropic projections. This is thus the first unified and model agnostic formalism enabling data scientists to interpret the dependence between the input variables, their impact on the prediction errors, and their influence on the output predictions. Convergence rates of the entropic projections are provided in the large sample case. Most importantly, we prove that computing an explanation in our framework has a low algorithmic complexity, making it scalable to real-life large datasets. We illustrate our strategy by explaining complex decision rules learned by using XGBoost, Random Forest or Deep Neural Network classifiers on various datasets such as Adult income, MNIST and CelebA. We finally make clear its differences with the explainability strategies textit{LIME} and textit{SHAP}, that are based on single observations. Results can be reproduced by using the freely distributed Python toolbox https://gems-ai.com}.
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