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Register a new userLearning Dynamics Model in Reinforcement Learning by Incorporating the Long Term Future
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In model-based reinforcement learning, the agent interleaves between model learning and planning. These two components are inextricably intertwined. If the model is not able to provide sensible long-term prediction, the executed planner would exploit model flaws, which can yield catastrophic failures. This paper focuses on building a model that reasons about the long-term future and demonstrates how to use this for efficient planning and exploration. To this end, we build a latent-variable autoregressive model by leveraging recent ideas in variational inference. We argue that forcing latent variables to carry future information through an auxiliary task substantially improves long-term predictions. Moreover, by planning in the latent space, the planners solution is ensured to be within regions where the model is valid. An exploration strategy can be devised by searching for unlikely trajectories under the model. Our method achieves higher reward faster compared to baselines on a variety of tasks and environments in both the imitation learning and model-based reinforcement learning settings.
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Accurately predicting the dynamics of robotic systems is crucial for model-based control and reinforcement learning. The most common way to estimate dynamics is by fitting a one-step ahead prediction model and using it to recursively propagate the predicted state distribution over long horizons. Unfortunately, this approach is known to compound even small prediction errors, making long-term predictions inaccurate. In this paper, we propose a new parametrization to supervised learning on state-action data to stably predict at longer horizons -- that we call a trajectory-based model. This trajectory-based model takes an initial state, a future time index, and control parameters as inputs, and directly predicts the state at the future time index. Experimental results in simulated and real-world robotic tasks show that trajectory-based models yield significantly more accurate long term predictions, improved sample efficiency, and the ability to predict task reward. With these improved prediction properties, we conclude with a demonstration of methods for using the trajectory-based model for control.
Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in machine learning. Most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables themselves are observed. However, for AI agents such as robots trying to make sense of their environment, the only observables are low-level variables like pixels in images. To generalize well, an agent must induce high-level variables, particularly those which are causal or are affected by causal variables. A central goal for AI and causality is thus the joint discovery of abstract representations and causal structure. However, we note that existing environments for studying causal induction are poorly suited for this objective because they have complicated task-specific causal graphs which are impossible to manipulate parametrically (e.g., number of nodes, sparsity, causal chain length, etc.). In this work, our goal is to facilitate research in learning representations of high-level variables as well as causal structures among them. In order to systematically probe the ability of methods to identify these variables and structures, we design a suite of benchmarking RL environments. We evaluate various representation learning algorithms from the literature and find that explicitly incorporating structure and modularity in models can help causal induction in model-based reinforcement learning.
We propose a hierarchical approach for making long-term predictions of future frames. To avoid inherent compounding errors in recursive pixel-level prediction, we propose to first estimate high-level structure in the input frames, then predict how that structure evolves in the future, and finally by observing a single frame from the past and the predicted high-level structure, we construct the future frames without having to observe any of the pixel-level predictions. Long-term video prediction is difficult to perform by recurrently observing the predicted frames because the small errors in pixel space exponentially amplify as predictions are made deeper into the future. Our approach prevents pixel-level error propagation from happening by removing the need to observe the predicted frames. Our model is built with a combination of LSTM and analogy based encoder-decoder convolutional neural networks, which independently predict the video structure and generate the future frames, respectively. In experiments, our model is evaluated on the Human3.6M and Penn Action datasets on the task of long-term pixel-level video prediction of humans performing actions and demonstrate significantly better results than the state-of-the-art.
We develop a new model of insulin-glucose dynamics for forecasting blood glucose in type 1 diabetics. We augment an existing biomedical model by introducing time-varying dynamics driven by a machine learning sequence model. Our model maintains a physiologically plausible inductive bias and clinically interpretable parameters -- e.g., insulin sensitivity -- while inheriting the flexibility of modern pattern recognition algorithms. Critical to modeling success are the flexible, but structured representations of subject variability with a sequence model. In contrast, less constrained models like the LSTM fail to provide reliable or physiologically plausible forecasts. We conduct an extensive empirical study. We show that allowing biomedical model dynamics to vary in time improves forecasting at long time horizons, up to six hours, and produces forecasts consistent with the physiological effects of insulin and carbohydrates.
We revisit offline reinforcement learning on episodic time-homogeneous tabular Markov Decision Processes with $S$ states, $A$ actions and planning horizon $H$. Given the collected $N$ episodes data with minimum cumulative reaching probability $d_m$, we obtain the first set of nearly $H$-free sample complexity bounds for evaluation and planning using the empirical MDPs: 1.For the offline evaluation, we obtain an $tilde{O}left(sqrt{frac{1}{Nd_m}} right)$ error rate, which matches the lower bound and does not have additional dependency on $polyleft(S,Aright)$ in higher-order term, that is different from previous works~citep{yin2020near,yin2020asymptotically}. 2.For the offline policy optimization, we obtain an $tilde{O}left(sqrt{frac{1}{Nd_m}} + frac{S}{Nd_m}right)$ error rate, improving upon the best known result by cite{cui2020plug}, which has additional $H$ and $S$ factors in the main term. Furthermore, this bound approaches the $Omegaleft(sqrt{frac{1}{Nd_m}}right)$ lower bound up to logarithmic factors and a high-order term. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first set of nearly horizon-free bounds in offline reinforcement learning.
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