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Register a new userLearning to Generate Long-term Future via Hierarchical Prediction
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Added by
Ruben Villegas
Publication date
2017
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We propose a hierarchical approach for making long-term predictions of future frames. To avoid inherent compounding errors in recursive pixel-level prediction, we propose to first estimate high-level structure in the input frames, then predict how that structure evolves in the future, and finally by observing a single frame from the past and the predicted high-level structure, we construct the future frames without having to observe any of the pixel-level predictions. Long-term video prediction is difficult to perform by recurrently observing the predicted frames because the small errors in pixel space exponentially amplify as predictions are made deeper into the future. Our approach prevents pixel-level error propagation from happening by removing the need to observe the predicted frames. Our model is built with a combination of LSTM and analogy based encoder-decoder convolutional neural networks, which independently predict the video structure and generate the future frames, respectively. In experiments, our model is evaluated on the Human3.6M and Penn Action datasets on the task of long-term pixel-level video prediction of humans performing actions and demonstrate significantly better results than the state-of-the-art.
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Much of recent research has been devoted to video prediction and generation, yet most of the previous works have demonstrated only limited success in generating videos on short-term horizons. The hierarchical video prediction method by Villegas et al. (2017) is an example of a state-of-the-art method for long-term video prediction, but their method is limited because it requires ground truth annotation of high-level structures (e.g., human joint landmarks) at training time. Our network encodes the input frame, predicts a high-level encoding into the future, and then a decoder with access to the first frame produces the predicted image from the predicted encoding. The decoder also produces a mask that outlines the predicted foreground object (e.g., person) as a by-product. Unlike Villegas et al. (2017), we develop a novel training method that jointly trains the encoder, the predictor, and the decoder together without highlevel supervision; we further improve upon this by using an adversarial loss in the feature space to train the predictor. Our method can predict about 20 seconds into the future and provides better results compared to Denton and Fergus (2018) and Finn et al. (2016) on the Human 3.6M dataset.
While the basic laws of Newtonian mechanics are well understood, explaining a physical scenario still requires manually modeling the problem with suitable equations and associated parameters. In order to adopt such models for artificial intelligence, researchers have handcrafted the relevant states, and then used neural networks to learn the state transitions using simulation runs as training data. Unfortunately, such approaches can be unsuitable for modeling complex real-world scenarios, where manually authoring relevant state spaces tend to be challenging. In this work, we investigate if neural networks can implicitly learn physical states of real-world mechanical processes only based on visual data, and thus enable long-term physical extrapolation. We develop a recurrent neural network architecture for this task and also characterize resultant uncertainties in the form of evolving variance estimates. We evaluate our setup to extrapolate motion of a rolling ball on bowl of varying shape and orientation using only images as input, and report competitive results with approaches that assume access to internal physics models and parameters.
We propose an improved discriminative model prediction method for robust long-term tracking based on a pre-trained short-term tracker. The baseline pre-trained short-term tracker is SuperDiMP which combines the bounding-box regressor of PrDiMP with the standard DiMP classifier. Our tracker RLT-DiMP improves SuperDiMP in the following three aspects: (1) Uncertainty reduction using random erasing: To make our model robust, we exploit an agreement from multiple images after erasing random small rectangular areas as a certainty. And then, we correct the tracking state of our model accordingly. (2) Random search with spatio-temporal constraints: we propose a robust random search method with a score penalty applied to prevent the problem of sudden detection at a distance. (3) Background augmentation for more discriminative feature learning: We augment various backgrounds that are not included in the search area to train a more robust model in the background clutter. In experiments on the VOT-LT2020 benchmark dataset, the proposed method achieves comparable performance to the state-of-the-art long-term trackers. The source code is available at: https://github.com/bismex/RLT-DIMP.
Human movement is goal-directed and influenced by the spatial layout of the objects in the scene. To plan future human motion, it is crucial to perceive the environment -- imagine how hard it is to navigate a new room with lights off. Existing works on predicting human motion do not pay attention to the scene context and thus struggle in long-term prediction. In this work, we propose a novel three-stage framework that exploits scene context to tackle this task. Given a single scene image and 2D pose histories, our method first samples multiple human motion goals, then plans 3D human paths towards each goal, and finally predicts 3D human pose sequences following each path. For stable training and rigorous evaluation, we contribute a diverse synthetic dataset with clean annotations. In both synthetic and real datasets, our method shows consistent quantitative and qualitative improvements over existing methods.
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