No Arabic abstract
When data is partially missing at random, imputation and importance weighting are often used to estimate moments of the unobserved population. In this paper, we study 1-nearest neighbor (1NN) importance weighting, which estimates moments by replacing missing data with the complete data that is the nearest neighbor in the non-missing covariate space. We define an empirical measure, the 1NN measure, and show that it is weakly consistent for the measure of the missing data. The main idea behind this result is that the 1NN measure is performing inverse probability weighting in the limit. We study applications to missing data and mitigating the impact of covariate shift in prediction tasks.
We provide statistical theory for conditional and unconditional Wasserstein generative adversarial networks (WGANs) in the framework of dependent observations. We prove upper bounds for the excess Bayes risk of the WGAN estimators with respect to a modified Wasserstein-type distance. Furthermore, we formalize and derive statements on the weak convergence of the estimators and use them to develop confidence intervals for new observations. The theory is applied to the special case of high-dimensional time series forecasting. We analyze the behavior of the estimators in simulations based on synthetic data and investigate a real data example with temperature data. The dependency of the data is quantified with absolutely regular beta-mixing coefficients.
The lasso and related sparsity inducing algorithms have been the target of substantial theoretical and applied research. Correspondingly, many results are known about their behavior for a fixed or optimally chosen tuning parameter specified up to unknown constants. In practice, however, this oracle tuning parameter is inaccessible so one must use the data to select one. Common statistical practice is to use a variant of cross-validation for this task. However, little is known about the theoretical properties of the resulting predictions with such data-dependent methods. We consider the high-dimensional setting with random design wherein the number of predictors $p$ grows with the number of observations $n$. Under typical assumptions on the data generating process, similar to those in the literature, we recover oracle rates up to a log factor when choosing the tuning parameter with cross-validation. Under weaker conditions, when the true model is not necessarily linear, we show that the lasso remains risk consistent relative to its linear oracle. We also generalize these results to the group lasso and square-root lasso and investigate the predictive and model selection performance of cross-validation via simulation.
Given $n$ samples from a population of individuals belonging to different types with unknown proportions, how do we estimate the probability of discovering a new type at the $(n+1)$-th draw? This is a classical problem in statistics, commonly referred to as the missing mass estimation problem. Recent results by Ohannessian and Dahleh citet{Oha12} and Mossel and Ohannessian citet{Mos15} showed: i) the impossibility of estimating (learning) the missing mass without imposing further structural assumptions on the type proportions; ii) the consistency of the Good-Turing estimator for the missing mass under the assumption that the tail of the type proportions decays to zero as a regularly varying function with parameter $alphain(0,1)$. In this paper we rely on tools from Bayesian nonparametrics to provide an alternative, and simpler, proof of the impossibility of a distribution-free estimation of the missing mass. Up to our knowledge, the use of Bayesian ideas to study large sample asymptotics for the missing mass is new, and it could be of independent interest. Still relying on Bayesian nonparametric tools, we then show that under regularly varying type proportions the convergence rate of the Good-Turing estimator is the best rate that any estimator can achieve, up to a slowly varying function, and that minimax rate must be at least $n^{-alpha/2}$. We conclude with a discussion of our results, and by conjecturing that the Good-Turing estimator is an rate optimal minimax estimator under regularly varying type proportions.
We study uniform consistency in nonparametric mixture models as well as closely related mixture of regression (also known as mixed regression) models, where the regression functions are allowed to be nonparametric and the error distributions are assumed to be convolutions of a Gaussian density. We construct uniformly consistent estimators under general conditions while simultaneously highlighting several pain points in extending existing pointwise consistency results to uniform results. The resulting analysis turns out to be nontrivial, and several novel technical tools are developed along the way. In the case of mixed regression, we prove $L^1$ convergence of the regression functions while allowing for the component regression functions to intersect arbitrarily often, which presents additional technical challenges. We also consider generalizations to general (i.e. non-convolutional) nonparametric mixtures.
Given a data set $mathcal{D}$ containing millions of data points and a data consumer who is willing to pay for $$X$ to train a machine learning (ML) model over $mathcal{D}$, how should we distribute this $$X$ to each data point to reflect its value? In this paper, we define the relative value of data via the Shapley value, as it uniquely possesses properties with appealing real-world interpretations, such as fairness, rationality and decentralizability. For general, bounded utility functions, the Shapley value is known to be challenging to compute: to get Shapley values for all $N$ data points, it requires $O(2^N)$ model evaluations for exact computation and $O(Nlog N)$ for $(epsilon, delta)$-approximation. In this paper, we focus on one popular family of ML models relying on $K$-nearest neighbors ($K$NN). The most surprising result is that for unweighted $K$NN classifiers and regressors, the Shapley value of all $N$ data points can be computed, exactly, in $O(Nlog N)$ time -- an exponential improvement on computational complexity! Moreover, for $(epsilon, delta)$-approximation, we are able to develop an algorithm based on Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) with only sublinear complexity $O(N^{h(epsilon,K)}log N)$ when $epsilon$ is not too small and $K$ is not too large. We empirically evaluate our algorithms on up to $10$ million data points and even our exact algorithm is up to three orders of magnitude faster than the baseline approximation algorithm. The LSH-based approximation algorithm can accelerate the value calculation process even further. We then extend our algorithms to other scenarios such as (1) weighed $K$NN classifiers, (2) different data points are clustered by different data curators, and (3) there are data analysts providing computation who also requires proper valuation.