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Observation of metre-scale impactors by the Desert Fireball Network

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 Added by Hadrien Devillepoix
 Publication date 2018
  fields Physics
and research's language is English




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The Earth is impacted by 35-40 metre-scale objects every year. These meteoroids are the low mass end of impactors that can do damage on the ground. Despite this they are very poorly surveyed and characterised, too infrequent for ground based fireball bservation efforts, and too small to be efficiently detected by NEO telescopic surveys whilst still in interplanetary space. We want to evaluate the suitability of different instruments for characterising metre-scale impactors and where they come from. We use data collected over the first 3 years of operation of the continent-scale Desert Fireball Network, and compare results with other published results as well as orbital sensors. We find that although the orbital sensors have the advantage of using the entire planet as collecting area, there are several serious problems with the accuracy of the data, notably the reported velocity vector, which is key to getting an accurate pre-impact orbit and calculating meteorite fall positions. We also outline dynamic range issues that fireball networks face when observing large meteoroid entries.



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The detection of fireballs streaks in astronomical imagery can be carried out by a variety of methods. The Desert Fireball Network--DFN--uses a network of cameras to track and triangulate incoming fireballs to recover meteorites with orbits. Fireball detection is done on-camera, but due to the design constraints imposed by remote deployment, the cameras are limited in processing power and time. We describe the processing software used for fireball detection under these constrained circumstances. A cascading approach was implemented, whereby computationally simple filters are used to discard uninteresting portions of the images, allowing for more computationally expensive analysis of the remainder. This allows a full nights worth of data; over 1000 36 megapixel images to be processed each day using a low power single board computer. The algorithms chosen give a single camera successful detection large fireball rate of better than 96 percent, when compared to manual inspection, although significant numbers of false positives are generated. The overall network detection rate for triangulated large fireballs is estimated to be better than 99.8 percent, by ensuring that there are multiple double stations chances to detect one fireball.
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Asteroid 2009 FD could impact Earth between 2185 and 2196. The long term propagation to the possible impacts and the intervening planetary encounters make 2009 FD one of the most challenging asteroids in terms of hazard assessment. To compute accurate impact probabilities we model the Yarkovsky effect by using the available physical characterization of 2009 FD and general properties of the Near Earth Asteroid population. We perform the hazard assessment with two independent methods: the first method is a generalization of the standard impact monitoring algorithms in use by NEODyS and Sentry, while the second one is based on a Monte Carlo approach. Both methods generate orbital samples in a 7 dimensional space that includes orbital elements and the parameter characterizing the Yarkovsky effect. The highest impact probability is $2.7 times 10^{-3}$ for an impact during the 2185 Earth encounter. Impacts after 2185 corresponding to resonant returns are possible, the most relevant being in 2190 with a probability of $3 times 10^{-4}$. Both numerical methods can be used in the future to handle similar cases. The structure of resonant returns and the list of the possible keyholes on the Target Plane of the scattering encounter in 2185 can be predicted by an analytic theory.
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