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Register a new userNon-gravitational Perturbations and Virtual Impactors: the case of asteroid 2009 FD
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Asteroid 2009 FD could impact Earth between 2185 and 2196. The long term propagation to the possible impacts and the intervening planetary encounters make 2009 FD one of the most challenging asteroids in terms of hazard assessment. To compute accurate impact probabilities we model the Yarkovsky effect by using the available physical characterization of 2009 FD and general properties of the Near Earth Asteroid population. We perform the hazard assessment with two independent methods: the first method is a generalization of the standard impact monitoring algorithms in use by NEODyS and Sentry, while the second one is based on a Monte Carlo approach. Both methods generate orbital samples in a 7 dimensional space that includes orbital elements and the parameter characterizing the Yarkovsky effect. The highest impact probability is $2.7 times 10^{-3}$ for an impact during the 2185 Earth encounter. Impacts after 2185 corresponding to resonant returns are possible, the most relevant being in 2190 with a probability of $3 times 10^{-4}$. Both numerical methods can be used in the future to handle similar cases. The structure of resonant returns and the list of the possible keyholes on the Target Plane of the scattering encounter in 2185 can be predicted by an analytic theory.
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The peculiar object P/2010 A2 was discovered by the LINEAR near-Earth asteroid survey in January 2010 and given a cometary designation due to the presence of a trail of material, although there was no central condensation or coma. The appearance of this object, in an asteroidal orbit (small eccentricity and inclination) in the inner main asteroid belt attracted attention as a potential new member of the recently recognized class of Main Belt Comets (MBCs). If confirmed, this new object would greatly expand the range in heliocentric distance over which MBCs are found. Here we present observations taken from the unique viewing geometry provided by ESAs Rosetta spacecraft, far from the Earth, that demonstrate that the trail is due to a single event rather than a period of cometary activity, in agreement with independent results from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The trail is made up of relatively large particles of millimetre to centimetre size that remain close to the parent asteroid. The shape of the trail can be explained by an initial impact ejecting large clumps of debris that disintegrated and dispersed almost immediately. We determine that this was an asteroid collision that occurred around February 10, 2009.
We present an analysis of new and published data on P/2013 R3, the first asteroid detected while disintegrating. Thirteen discrete components are measured in the interval between UT 2013 October 01 and 2014 February 13. We determine a mean, pair-wise velocity dispersion amongst these components of $Delta v = 0.33pm0.03$ m s$^{-1}$ and find that their separation times are staggered over an interval of $sim$5 months. Dust enveloping the system has, in the first observations, a cross-section $sim$30 km$^2$ but fades monotonically at a rate consistent with the action of radiation pressure sweeping. The individual components exhibit comet-like morphologies and also fade except where secondary fragmentation is accompanied by the release of additional dust. We find only upper limits to the radii of any embedded solid nuclei, typically $sim$100 to 200 m (geometric albedo 0.05 assumed). Combined, the components of P/2013 R3 would form a single spherical body with radius $lesssim$400 m, which is our best estimate of the size of the precursor object. The observations are consistent with rotational disruption of a weak (cohesive strength $sim$50 to 100 N m$^{-2}$) parent body, $sim$400 m in radius. Estimated radiation (YORP) spin-up times of this parent are $lesssim$1 Myr, shorter than the collisional lifetime. If present, water ice sublimating at as little as 10$^{-3}$ kg s$^{-1}$ could generate a torque on the parent body rivaling the YORP torque. Under conservative assumptions about the frequency of similar disruptions, the inferred asteroid debris production rate is $gtrsim$10$^3$ kg s$^{-1}$, which is at least 4% of the rate needed to maintain the Zodiacal Cloud.
The study of meteorite craters on Earth provides information about the dynamic evolution of bodies within the Solar System. Bosumtwi crater is a well studied, 10.5 km in diameter, ca. 1.07 Ma old impact structure located in Ghana. The impactor was $sim$ 1 km in diameter, an ordinary chondrite and struck the Earth with an angle between 30$^circ$ and 45$^circ$ from the horizontal. We have used a two phase backward integration to constrain the most probable parent region of the impactor. We find that the most likely source region is a high inclination object from the Middle Main Belt.
The Earth is impacted by 35-40 metre-scale objects every year. These meteoroids are the low mass end of impactors that can do damage on the ground. Despite this they are very poorly surveyed and characterised, too infrequent for ground based fireball bservation efforts, and too small to be efficiently detected by NEO telescopic surveys whilst still in interplanetary space. We want to evaluate the suitability of different instruments for characterising metre-scale impactors and where they come from. We use data collected over the first 3 years of operation of the continent-scale Desert Fireball Network, and compare results with other published results as well as orbital sensors. We find that although the orbital sensors have the advantage of using the entire planet as collecting area, there are several serious problems with the accuracy of the data, notably the reported velocity vector, which is key to getting an accurate pre-impact orbit and calculating meteorite fall positions. We also outline dynamic range issues that fireball networks face when observing large meteoroid entries.
Centaurs are solar system objects with orbits situated among the orbits of Jupiter and Neptune. Centaurs represent one of the sources of Near-Earth Objects. Thus, it is crucial to understand their orbital evolution which in some cases might end in collision with terrestrial planets and produce catastrophic events. We study the orbital evolution of the Centaurs toward the inner solar system, and estimate the number of close encounters and impacts with the terrestrial planets after the Late Heavy Bombardment assuming a steady state population of Centaurs. We also estimate the possible crater sizes. We compute the approximate amount of water released: on the Earth, which is about 0.00001 the total water present now. We also found sub-regions of the Centaurs where the possible impactors originate from. While crater sizes could extend up to hundreds of kilometers in diameter given the presently known population of Centaurs the majority of the craters would be less than about 10 km. For all the planets and an average impactor size of 12 km in diameter, the average impact frequency since the Late Heavy Bombardment is one every 1.9 Gyr for the Earth and 2.1 Gyr for Venus. For smaller bodies (e.g. > 1 km), the impact frequency is one every 14.4 Myr for the Earth, 13.1 Myr for Venus and, 46.3 for Mars, in the recent solar system. Only 53% of the Centaurs can enter into the terrestrial planet region and 7% can interact with terrestrial planets.
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