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Register a new userApproaches to Stochastic Modeling of Wind Turbines
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Added by
Dmitry Kulyabov PhD
Publication date
2017
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Background. This paper study statistical data gathered from wind turbines located on the territory of the Republic of Poland. The research is aimed to construct the stochastic model that predicts the change of wind speed with time. Purpose. The purpose of this work is to find the optimal distribution for the approximation of available statistical data on wind speed. Methods. We consider four distributions of a random variable: Log-Normal, Weibull, Gamma and Beta. In order to evaluate the parameters of distributions we use method of maximum likelihood. To assess the the results of approximation we use a quantile-quantile plot. Results. All the considered distributions properly approximate the available data. The Weibull distribution shows the best results for the extreme values of the wind speed. Conclusions. The results of the analysis are consistent with the common practice of using the Weibull distribution for wind speed modeling. In the future we plan to compare the results obtained with a much larger data set as well as to build a stochastic model of the evolution of the wind speed depending on time.
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In this paper, five different approaches for reduced-order modeling of brittle fracture in geomaterials, specifically concrete, are presented and compared. Four of the five methods rely on machine learning (ML) algorithms to approximate important aspects of the brittle fracture problem. In addition to the ML algorithms, each method incorporates different physics-based assumptions in order to reduce the computational complexity while maintaining the physics as much as possible. This work specifically focuses on using the ML approaches to model a 2D concrete sample under low strain rate pure tensile loading conditions with 20 preexisting cracks present. A high-fidelity finite element-discrete element model is used to both produce a training dataset of 150 simulations and an additional 35 simulations for validation. Results from the ML approaches are directly compared against the results from the high-fidelity model. Strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed and the most important conclusion is that a combination of physics-informed and data-driven features are necessary for emulating the physics of crack propagation, interaction and coalescence. All of the models presented here have runtimes that are orders of magnitude faster than the original high-fidelity model and pave the path for developing accurate reduced order models that could be used to inform larger length-scale models with important sub-scale physics that often cannot be accounted for due to computational cost.
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