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Register a new userBayesian estimation of thermonuclear reaction rates for deuterium+deuterium reactions
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The study of d+d reactions is of major interest since their reaction rates affect the predicted abundances of D, 3He, and 7Li. In particular, recent measurements of primordial D/H ratios call for reduced uncertainties in the theoretical abundances predicted by big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). Different authors have studied reactions involved in BBN by incorporating new experimental data and a careful treatment of systematic and probabilistic uncertainties. To analyze the experimental data, Coc et al. (2015) used results of ab initio models for the theoretical calculation of the energy dependence of S-factors in conjunction with traditional statistical methods based on Chi-2 minimization. Bayesian methods have now spread to many scientific fields and provide numerous advantages in data analysis. Astrophysical S-factors and reaction rates using Bayesian statistics were calculated by Iliadis et al. (2016). Here we present a similar analysis for two d+d reactions, d(d,n)3He and d(d,p)3H, that has been translated into a total decrease of the predicted D/H value by 0.16%.
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We revisit the assumption that reactors based on deuterium-deuterium (D-D) fusion processes have to be necessarily developed after the successful completion of experiments and demonstrations for deuterium-tritium (D-T) fusion reactors. Two possible mechanisms for enhancing the reactivity are discussed. Hard tails in the energy distribution of the nuclei, through the so-called kappa-distribution, allow to boost the number of energetic nuclei available for fusion reactions. At higher temperatures than usually considered in D-T plasmas, vacuum polarization effects from real $e^+e^-$ and $mu^+mu^-$ pairs may provide further speed-up due to their contribution to screening of the Coulomb barrier. Furthermore, the energy collection system can benefit from the absence of the lithium blanket, both in simplicity and compactness. The usual thermal cycle can be bypassed with comparable efficiency levels using hadronic calorimetry and third-generation photovoltaic cells, possibly allowing to extend the use of fusion reactors to broader contexts, most notably maritime transport.
Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is the standard model theory for the production of the light nuclides during the early stages of the universe, taking place for a period of about 20 minutes after the big bang. Deuterium production, in particular, is highly sensitive to the primordial baryon density and the number of neutrino species, and its abundance serves as a sensitive test for the conditions in the early universe. The comparison of observed deuterium abundances with predicted ones requires reliable knowledge of the relevant thermonuclear reaction rates, and their corresponding uncertainties. Recent observations reported the primordial deuterium abundance with percent accuracy, but some theoretical predictions based on BBN are at tension with the measured values because of uncertainties in the cross section of the deuterium-burning reactions. In this work, we analyze the S-factor of the D(p,$gamma$)$^3$He reaction using a hierarchical Bayesian model. We take into account the results of eleven experiments, spanning the period of 1955--2021; more than any other study. We also present results for two different fitting functions, a two-parameter function based on microscopic nuclear theory and a four-parameter polynomial. Our recommended reaction rates have a 2.2% uncertainty at $0.8$~GK, which is the temperature most important for deuterium BBN. Differences between our rates and previous results are discussed.
A method based on Monte Carlo techniques is presented for evaluating thermonuclear reaction rates. We begin by reviewing commonly applied procedures and point out that reaction rates that have been reported up to now in the literature have no rigorous statistical meaning. Subsequently, we associate each nuclear physics quantity entering in the calculation of reaction rates with a specific probability density function, including Gaussian, lognormal and chi-squared distributions. Based on these probability density functions the total reaction rate is randomly sampled many times until the required statistical precision is achieved. This procedure results in a median (Monte Carlo) rate which agrees under certain conditions with the commonly reported recommended classical rate. In addition, we present at each temperature a low rate and a high rate, corresponding to the 0.16 and 0.84 quantiles of the cumulative reaction rate distribution. These quantities are in general different from the statistically meaningless minimum (or lower limit) and maximum (or upper limit) reaction rates which are commonly reported. Furthermore, we approximate the output reaction rate probability density function by a lognormal distribution and present, at each temperature, the lognormal parameters miu and sigma. The values of these quantities will be crucial for future Monte Carlo nucleosynthesis studies. Our new reaction rates, appropriate for bare nuclei in the laboratory, are tabulated in the second paper of this series (Paper II). The nuclear physics input used to derive our reaction rates is presented in the third paper of this series (Paper III). In the fourth paper of this series (Paper IV) we compare our new reaction rates to previous results.
Primordial or big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is one of the three historical strong evidences for the big bang model. Standard BBN is now a parameter free theory, since the baryonic density of the Universe has been deduced with an unprecedented precision from observations of the anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation. There is a good agreement between the primordial abundances of 4He, D, 3He and 7Li deduced from observations and from primordial nucleosynthesis calculations. However, the 7Li calculated abundance is significantly higher than the one deduced from spectroscopic observations and remains an open problem. In addition, recent deuterium observations have drastically reduced the uncertainty on D/H, to reach a value of 1.6%. It needs to be matched by BBN predictions whose precision is now limited by thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. This is especially important as many attempts to reconcile Li observations with models lead to an increased D prediction. Here, we re-evaluates the D(p,g)3He, D(d,n)3He and D(d,p)3H reaction rates that govern deuterium destruction, incorporating new experimental data and carefully accounting for systematic uncertainties. Contrary to previous evaluations, we use theoretical ab initio models for the energy dependence of the S-factors. As a result, these rates increase at BBN temperatures, leading to a reduced value of D/H = (2.45$pm0.10)times10^{-5}$ (2$sigma$), in agreement with observations.
Recent measurements of the D(p,$gamma)^3$He, nuclear reaction cross-section and of the neutron lifetime, along with the reevaluation of the cosmological baryon abundance from cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis, call for an update of abundance predictions for light elements produced during the big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). While considered as a pillar of the hot big-bang model in its early days, BBN constraining power mostly rests on deuterium abundance. We point out a new $simeq1.8sigma$-tension on the baryonic density, or equivalently on the D/H abundance, between the value inferred on one hand from the analysis of the primordial abundances of light elements and, on the other hand, from the combination of CMB and baryonic oscillation data. This draws the attention on this sector of the theory and gives us the opportunity to reevaluate the status of BBN in the context of precision cosmology. Finally, this paper presents an upgrade of the BBN code PRIMAT.
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