Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userOrbits for the Impatient: A Bayesian Rejection Sampling Method for Quickly Fitting the Orbits of Long-Period Exoplanets
72
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We describe a Bayesian rejection sampling algorithm designed to efficiently compute posterior distributions of orbital elements for data covering short fractions of long-period exoplanet orbits. Our implementation of this method, Orbits for the Impatient (OFTI), converges up to several orders of magnitude faster than two implementations of MCMC in this regime. We illustrate the efficiency of our approach by showing that OFTI calculates accurate posteriors for all existing astrometry of the exoplanet 51 Eri b up to 100 times faster than a Metropolis-Hastings MCMC. We demonstrate the accuracy of OFTI by comparing our results for several orbiting systems with those of various MCMC implementations, finding the output posteriors to be identical within shot noise. We also describe how our algorithm was used to successfully predict the location of 51 Eri b six months in the future based on less than three months of astrometry. Finally, we apply OFTI to ten long-period exoplanets and brown dwarfs, all but one of which have been monitored over less than 3% of their orbits, producing fits to their orbits from astrometric records in the literature.
rate research
Read More
A method for classifying orbits near asteroids under a polyhedral gravitational field is presented, and may serve as a valuable reference for spacecraft orbit design for asteroid exploration. The orbital dynamics near asteroids are very complex. According to the variation in orbit characteristics after being affected by gravitational perturbation during the periapsis passage, orbits near an asteroid can be classified into 9 categories: (1) surroundingto-surrounding, (2) surrounding-to-surface, (3) surroundingto-infinity, (4) infinity-to-infinity, (5) infinity-to-surface, (6) infinity-to-surrounding, (7) surface-to-surface, (8) surfaceto-surrounding, and (9) surface-to- infinity. Assume that the orbital elements are constant near the periapsis, the gravitation potential is expanded into a harmonic series. Then, the influence of the gravitational perturbation on the orbit is studied analytically. The styles of orbits are dependent on the argument of periapsis, the periapsis radius, and the periapsis velocity. Given the argument of periapsis, the orbital energy before and after perturbation can be derived according to the periapsis radius and the periapsis velocity. Simulations have been performed for orbits in the gravitational field of 216 Kleopatra. The numerical results are well consistent with analytic predictions.
The Kepler Mission has discovered thousands of exoplanets and revolutionized our understanding of their population. This large, homogeneous catalog of discoveries has enabled rigorous studies of the occurrence rate of exoplanets and planetary systems as a function of their physical properties. However, transit surveys like Kepler are most sensitive to planets with orbital periods much shorter than the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn, the most massive planets in our Solar System. To address this deficiency, we perform a fully automated search for long-period exoplanets with only one or two transits in the archival Kepler light curves. When applied to the $sim 40,000$ brightest Sun-like target stars, this search produces 16 long-period exoplanet candidates. Of these candidates, 6 are novel discoveries and 5 are in systems with inner short-period transiting planets. Since our method involves no human intervention, we empirically characterize the detection efficiency of our search. Based on these results, we measure the average occurrence rate of exoplanets smaller than Jupiter with orbital periods in the range 2-25 years to be $2.0pm0.7$ planets per Sun-like star.
We present the discovery of Kepler-129 d ($P_{d}=7.2^{+0.4}_{-0.3}$ yr, $msin i_{d}=8.3^{+1.1}_{-0.7} rm M_{Jup}$, $ e_{d}=0.15^{+0.07}_{-0.05} $) based on six years of radial velocity (RV) observations from Keck/HIRES. Kepler-129 also hosts two transiting sub-Neptunes: Kepler-129 b ($P_{b}=15.79$ days, $r_{b}=2.40pm{0.04} rm{R_{oplus}}$) and Kepler-129 c ($P_{c}=82.20$ days, $r_{c}=2.52pm{0.07} rm{R_{oplus}}$) for which we measure masses of $m_{b}<20 rm{M_{oplus}}$ and $m_{c}=43^{+13}_{-12} rm{M_{oplus}}$. Kepler-129 is an hierarchical system consisting of two tightly-packed inner planets and an external companion whose mass is close to the deuterium burning limit. In such a system, two inner planets precess around the orbital normal of the outer companion, causing their inclinations to oscillate with time. Based on an asteroseismic analysis of Kepler data, we find tentative evidence that Kepler-129 b and c are misaligned with stellar spin axis by $gtrsim 38$ deg, which could be torqued by Kepler-129 d if it is inclined by $gtrsim 19$ deg relative to inner planets. Using N-body simulations, we provide additional constraints on the mutual inclination between Kepler-129 d and inner planets by estimating the fraction of time during which two inner planets both transit. The probability that two planets both transit decreases as their misalignment with Kepler-129 d increases. We also find a more massive Kepler-129 c enables the two inner planets to become strongly coupled and more resistant to perturbations from Kepler-129 d. The unusually high mass of Kepler-129 c provides a valuable benchmark for both planetary dynamics and interior structure, since the best-fit mass is consistent with this $rm{2.5 R_{oplus}}$ planet having a rocky surface.
Fast and precise propagation of satellite orbits is required for mission design, orbit determination and payload data analysis. We present a method to improve the computational performance of numerical propagators and simultaneously maintain the accuracy level required by any particular application. This is achieved by determining the positional accuracy needed and the corresponding acceptable error in acceleration on the basis of the mission requirements, removing those perturbation forces whose effect is negligible compared to the accuracy requirement, implementing an efficient and precise algorithm for the harmonic synthesis of the geopotential gradient (i.e., the gravitational acceleration) and adjusting the tolerance of the numerical propagator to achieve the prescribed accuracy level with minimum cost. In particular, to achieve the optimum balance between accuracy and computational performance, the number of geopotential spherical harmonics to retain is adjusted during the integration on the basis of the accuracy requirement. The contribution of high-order harmonics decays rapidly with altitude, so the minimum expansion degree meeting the target accuracy decreases with height. The optimum degree for each altitude is determined by making the truncation error of the harmonic synthesis equal to the admissible acceleration error. This paper presents a detailed description of the technique and test cases highlighting its accuracy and efficiency.
Aims. Current and upcoming space missions may be able to detect moons of transiting extra-solar planets. In this context it is important to understand if exomoons are expected to exist and what their possible properties are. Methods. Using estimates for the stability of exomoon orbits from numerical studies, a list of 87 known transiting exoplanets is tested for the potential to host large exomoons. Results. For 92% of the sample, moons larger than Luna can be excluded on prograde orbits, unless the parent exoplanets internal structure is very different from the gas-giants of the solar system. Only WASP-24b, OGLE2-TR-L9, CoRoT-3b and CoRoT-9b could have moons above 0.4 moplus, which is within the likely detection capabilities of current observational facilities. Additionally, the range of possible orbital radii of exomoons of the known transiting exoplanets, with two exceptions, is below 8 Jupiter-radii and therefore rather small.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
