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Register a new userThe population of long-period transiting exoplanets
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Added by
Daniel Foreman-Mackey
Publication date
2016
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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The Kepler Mission has discovered thousands of exoplanets and revolutionized our understanding of their population. This large, homogeneous catalog of discoveries has enabled rigorous studies of the occurrence rate of exoplanets and planetary systems as a function of their physical properties. However, transit surveys like Kepler are most sensitive to planets with orbital periods much shorter than the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn, the most massive planets in our Solar System. To address this deficiency, we perform a fully automated search for long-period exoplanets with only one or two transits in the archival Kepler light curves. When applied to the $sim 40,000$ brightest Sun-like target stars, this search produces 16 long-period exoplanet candidates. Of these candidates, 6 are novel discoveries and 5 are in systems with inner short-period transiting planets. Since our method involves no human intervention, we empirically characterize the detection efficiency of our search. Based on these results, we measure the average occurrence rate of exoplanets smaller than Jupiter with orbital periods in the range 2-25 years to be $2.0pm0.7$ planets per Sun-like star.
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Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s$^{-1}$. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass ($sim$ 0.5 m s$^{-1}$) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus ($sim$ 0.1 m s$^{-1}$) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets.
High contrast direct imaging of exoplanets can provide many important observables, including measurements of the orbit, spectra that probe the lower layers of the atmosphere, and phase variations of the planet, but cannot directly measure planet radius or mass. Our future understanding of directly imaged exoplanets will therefore rely on extrapolated models of planetary atmospheres and bulk composition, which need robust calibration. We estimate the population of extrasolar planets that could serve as calibrators for these models. Critically, this population of standard planets must be accessible to both direct imaging and the transit method, allowing for radius measurement. We show that the search volume of a direct imaging mission eventually overcomes the transit probability falloff with semi-major axis, so that as long as cold planets are not exceedingly rare, the population of transiting planets and directly imageable planets overlaps. Using current extrapolations of Kepler occurrence rates, we estimate that ~8 standard planets could be characterized shortward of 800 nm with an ambitious future direct imaging mission like LUVOIR-A and several dozen could be detected at V band. We show the design space that would expand the sample size and discuss the extent to which ground- and space-based surveys could detect this small but crucial population of planets.
A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique that uses machine learning (ML) methodologies combines several algorithms, which were developed by ThetaRay, Inc., is applied to NASAs Transiting Exoplanets Survey Satellite (TESS) dataset to identify exoplanetary candidates. The AI/ML ThetaRay system is trained initially with Kepler exoplanetary data and validated with confirmed exoplanets before its application to TESS data. Existing and new features of the data, based on various observational parameters, are constructed and used in the AI/ML analysis by employing semi-supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques. By the application of ThetaRay system to 10,803 light curves of threshold crossing events (TCEs) produced by the TESS mission, obtained from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes, the algorithm yields about 50 targets for further analysis, and we uncover three new exoplanetary candidates by further manual vetting. This study demonstrates for the first time the successful application of the particular combined multiple AI/ML-based methodologies to a large astrophysical dataset for rapid automated classification of TCEs.
We report the discovery of EPIC201702477b, a transiting brown dwarf in a long period (40.73691 +/- 0.00037 day) and eccentric (e=0.2281 +/- 0.0026) orbit. This system was initially reported as a planetary candidate based on two transit events seen in K2 Campaign 1 photometry and later validated as an exoplanet. We confirm the transit and refine the ephemeris with two subsequent ground-based detections of the transit using the LCOGT 1m telescope network. We rule out any transit timing variations above the level of 30s. Using high precision radial velocity measurements from HARPS and SOPHIE we identify the transiting companion as a brown dwarf with a mass, radius, and bulk density of 66.9 +/- 1.7 M$_J$, 0.757 +/- 0.065 R$_J$, and 191+/-51 g.cm$^{-3}$ respectively. EPIC201702477b is the smallest radius brown dwarf yet discovered, with a mass just below the H-burning limit. It has the highest density of any planet, substellar mass object or main-sequence star discovered so far. We find evidence in the set of known transiting brown dwarfs for two populations of objects - high mass brown dwarfs and low mass brown dwarfs. The higher-mass population have radii in very close agreement to theoretical models, and show a lower-mass limit around 60 M$_J$. This may be the signature of mass-dependent ejection of systems during the formation process.
The star Kepler-1625 recently attracted considerable attention when an analysis of the stellar photometric time series from the Kepler mission was interpreted as showing evidence of a large exomoon around the transiting Jupiter-sized planet candidate Kepler-1625b. We aim to detect the radial velocity (RV) signal imposed by Kepler-1625b (and its putative moon) on the host star or, as the case may be, determine an upper limit on the mass of the transiting object. We took a total of 22 spectra of Kepler-1625 using CARMENES, 20 of which were useful. Observations were spread over a total of seven nights between October 2017 and October 2018, covering $125%$ of one full orbit of Kepler-1625b. We used the automatic Spectral Radial Velocity Analyser (SERVAL) pipeline to deduce the stellar RVs and uncertainties. Then we fitted the RV curve model of a single planet on a Keplerian orbit to the observed RVs using a $chi^2$ minimisation procedure. We derive upper limits on the mass of Kepler-1625b under the assumption of a single planet on a circular orbit. In this scenario, the $1,sigma$, $2,sigma$, and $3,sigma$ confidence upper limits for the mass of Kepler-1625b are $2.90,M_{rm J}$, $7.15,M_{rm J}$, and $11.60,M_{rm J}$, respectively. We present strong evidence for the planetary nature of Kepler-1625b, making it the 10th most long-period confirmed planet known today. Our data does not answer the question about a second, possibly more short-period planet that could be responsible for the observed transit timing variation of Kepler-1625b.
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