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Equivalence between non-Markovian and Markovian dynamics in epidemic spreading processes

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 Added by Michele Starnini
 Publication date 2017
  fields Physics
and research's language is English




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A general formalism is introduced to allow the steady state of non-Markovian processes on networks to be reduced to equivalent Markovian processes on the same substrates. The example of an epidemic spreading process is considered in detail, where all the non-Markovian aspects are shown to be captured within a single parameter, the effective infection rate. Remarkably, this result is independent of the topology of the underlying network, as demonstrated by numerical simulations on two-dimensional lattices and various types of random networks. Furthermore, an analytic approximation for the effective infection rate is introduced, which enables the calculation of the critical point and of the critical exponents for the non-Markovian dynamics.



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We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time markovian walk governed by his specific transition matrix. With this assumption, we first derive an upper bound for the reproduction numbers. Then we assume that a walker is in one of the states: susceptible, infectious, or recovered. An infectious walker remains infectious during a certain characteristic time. If an infectious walker meets a susceptible one on the same node there is a certain probability for the susceptible walker to get infected. By implementing this hypothesis in computer simulations we study the space-time evolution of the emerging infection patterns. Generally, random walk approaches seem to have a large potential to study epidemic spreading and to identify the pertinent parameters in epidemic dynamics.
We study memory dependent binary-state dynamics, focusing on the noisy-voter model. This is a non-Markovian process if we consider the set of binary states of the population as the description variables, or Markovian if we incorporate age, related to the time one has spent holding the same state, as a part of the description. We show that, in some cases, the model can be reduced to an effective Markovian process, where the age distribution of the population rapidly equilibrates to a quasi-steady state, while the global state of the system is out of equilibrium. This effective Markovian process shares the same phenomenology of the non-linear noisy-voter model and we establish a clear parallelism between these two extensions of the noisy-voter model.
Employing the quadratic fermionic Hamiltonians for the collective and internal subsystems with a linear coupling, we studied the role of fermionic statistics on the dynamics of the collective motion. The transport coefficients are discussed as well as the associated fluctuation-dissipation relation. Due to different nature of the particles, the path to equilibrium is slightly affected. However, in the weak coupling regime, the time-scale for approaching equilibrium is found to be globally unchanged. The Pauli-blocking effect can modify the usual picture in open quantum system. In some limits, contrary to boson, this effect can strongly hinder the influence of the bath by blocking the interacting channels.
A model for epidemic spreading on rewiring networks is introduced and analyzed for the case of scale free steady state networks. It is found that contrary to what one would have naively expected, the rewiring process typically tends to suppress epidemic spreading. In particular it is found that as in static networks, rewiring networks with degree distribution exponent $gamma >3$ exhibit a threshold in the infection rate below which epidemics die out in the steady state. However the threshold is higher in the rewiring case. For $2<gamma leq 3$ no such threshold exists, but for small infection rate the steady state density of infected nodes (prevalence) is smaller for rewiring networks.
79 - Bassano Vacchini 2019
The study of quantum dynamics featuring memory effects has always been a topic of interest within the theory of open quantum system, which is concerned about providing useful conceptual and theoretical tools for the description of the reduced dynamics of a system interacting with an external environment. Definitions of non-Markovian processes have been introduced trying to capture the notion of memory effect by studying features of the quantum dynamical map providing the evolution of the system states, or changes in the distinguishability of the system states themselves. We introduce basic notions in the framework of open quantum systems, stressing in particular analogies and differences with models used for introducing modifications of quantum mechanics which should help in dealing with the measurement problem. We further discuss recent developments in the treatment of non-Markovian processes and their role in considering more general modifications of quantum mechanics.
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