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Register a new userComplex Systems and a Computational Social Science Perspective on the Labor Market
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Abdullah Almaatouq
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Labor market institutions are central for modern economies, and their polices can directly affect unemployment rates and economic growth. At the individual level, unemployment often has a detrimental impact on peoples well-being and health. At the national level, high employment is one of the central goals of any economic policy, due to its close association with national prosperity. The main goal of this thesis is to highlight the need for frameworks that take into account the complex structure of labor market interactions. In particular, we explore the benefits of leveraging tools from computational social science, network science, and data-driven theories to measure the flow of opportunities and information in the context of the labor market. First, we investigate our key hypothesis, which is that opportunity/information flow through weak ties, and this is a key determinant of the length of unemployment. We then extend the idea of opportunity/information flow to clusters of other economic activities, where we expect the flow within clusters of related activities to be higher than within isolated activities. This captures the intuition that within related activities there are more capitals involved and that such activities require similar capabilities. Therefore, more extensive clusters of economic activities should generate greater growth through exploiting the greater flow of opportunities and information. We quantify the opportunity/information flow using a complexity measure of two economic activities (i.e. jobs and exports).
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Between February 14, 2019 and March 4, 2019, a terrorist attack in Pulwama, Kashmir followed by retaliatory airstrikes led to rising tensions between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed countries. In this work, we examine polarizing messaging on Twitter during these events, particularly focusing on the positions of Indian and Pakistani politicians. We use a label propagation technique focused on hashtag co-occurrences to find polarizing tweets and users. Our analysis reveals that politicians in the ruling political party in India (BJP) used polarized hashtags and called for escalation of conflict more so than politicians from other parties. Our work offers the first analysis of how escalating tensions between India and Pakistan manifest on Twitter and provides a framework for studying polarizing messages.
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The contradiction between physical and economical sciences concerning the growth of the production/consumption mechanism is analyzed. It is then shown that if one wishes to keep the security level stable or to enhance it in a growing economy the cost of security grows faster than the gross wealth. The result is a typical evolution in which the net wealth increases up to a maximum, then abruptly collapses. Besides this, any system of relations based on a growing volume of exchanges is bound to go progressively out of control. The voluntary blindness of the ruling classes toward these facts is leading our societies to a disaster. This fate is not inescapable provided we learn to dismantle the myth of perpetual growth.
Interactional synchrony refers to how the speech or behavior of two or more people involved in a conversation become more finely synchronized with each other, and they can appear to behave almost in direct response to one another. Studies have shown that interactional synchrony is a hallmark of relationships, and is produced as a result of rapport. %Research has also shown that up to two-thirds of human communication occurs via nonverbal channels such as gestures (or body movements), facial expressions, etc. In this work, we use computer vision based methods to extract nonverbal cues, specifically from the face, and develop a model to measure interactional synchrony based on those cues. This paper illustrates a novel method of constructing a dynamic deep neural architecture, specifically made up of intermediary long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), useful for learning and predicting the extent of synchrony between two or more processes, by emulating the nonlinear dependencies between them. On a synthetic dataset, where pairs of sequences were generated from a Gaussian process with known covariates, the architecture could successfully determine the covariance values of the generating process within an error of 0.5% when tested on 100 pairs of interacting signals. On a real-life dataset involving groups of three people, the model successfully estimated the extent of synchrony of each group on a scale of 1 to 5, with an overall prediction mean of $2.96%$ error when performing 5-fold validation, as compared to 26.1% on the random permutations serving as the control baseline.
Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japans experience during the 1990s changed the consensus view on price of economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and zero interest bound at the same time, Bank of Japan had difficulty in conducting effective monetary policy. It made Japans stagnation unusually prolonged. Too low inflation which annoys central banks today is translated into the Phillips curve puzzle. In the US and Japan, in the course of recovery from the Great Recession after the 2008 global financial crisis, the unemployment rate had steadily declined to the level which was commonly regarded as lower than the natural rate or NAIRU. And yet, inflation stayed low. In this paper, we consider a minimal model of dual labor market to explore what kind of change in the economy makes the Phillips curve flat. The level of bargaining power of workers, the elasticity of the supply of labor to wage in the secondary market, and the composition of the workforce are the main factors in explaining the flattening of the Phillips curve. We argue that the changes we consider in the model, in fact, has plausibly made the Phillips curve flat in recent years.
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