Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userDual Labor Market and the Phillips Curve Puzzle
209
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japans experience during the 1990s changed the consensus view on price of economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and zero interest bound at the same time, Bank of Japan had difficulty in conducting effective monetary policy. It made Japans stagnation unusually prolonged. Too low inflation which annoys central banks today is translated into the Phillips curve puzzle. In the US and Japan, in the course of recovery from the Great Recession after the 2008 global financial crisis, the unemployment rate had steadily declined to the level which was commonly regarded as lower than the natural rate or NAIRU. And yet, inflation stayed low. In this paper, we consider a minimal model of dual labor market to explore what kind of change in the economy makes the Phillips curve flat. The level of bargaining power of workers, the elasticity of the supply of labor to wage in the secondary market, and the composition of the workforce are the main factors in explaining the flattening of the Phillips curve. We argue that the changes we consider in the model, in fact, has plausibly made the Phillips curve flat in recent years.
rate research
Read More
This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, we use the GARCH-S (GARCH with skewness) model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk. The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk, indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk. Moreover, the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak, which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the pandemic.
Lack of skills is arguably one of the most important determinants of high levels of unemployment and poverty. In response, policymakers often initiate vocational training programs in effort to enhance skill formation among the youth. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we examine a large youth training intervention in Nepal. We find, twelve months after the start of the training program, that the intervention generated an increase in non-farm employment of 10 percentage points (ITT estimates) and up to 31 percentage points for program compliers (LATE estimates). We also detect sizeable gains in monthly earnings. Women who start self-employment activities inside their homes largely drive these impacts. We argue that low baseline educational levels and non-farm employment levels and Nepals social and cultural norms towards women drive our large program impacts. Our results suggest that the program enables otherwise underemployed women to earn an income while staying at home - close to household errands and in line with the socio-cultural norms that prevent them from taking up employment outside the house.
After the 2007/2008 financial crisis, the UK government decided that a change in regulation was required to amend the poor control of financial markets. The Financial Services Act 2012 was developed as a result in order to give more control and authority to the regulators of financial markets. Thus, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) succeeded the Financial Services Authority (FSA). An area requiring an improvement in regulation was insider trading. Our study examines the effectiveness of the FCA in its duty of regulating insider trading through utilising the event study methodology to assess abnormal returns in the run-up to the first announcement of mergers. Samples of abnormal returns are examined on periods, under regulation either by the FSA or by the FCA. Practically, stock price data on the London Stock Exchange from 2008-2012 and 2015-2019 is investigated. The results from this study determine that abnormal returns are reduced after the implementation of the Financial Services Act 2012; prices are also found to be noisier in the period before the 2012 Act. Insignificant abnormal returns are found in the run-up to the first announcement of mergers in the 2015-2019 period. This concludes that the FCA is efficient in regulating insider trading.
This paper investigates whether security markets price the effect of social distancing on firms operations. We document that firms that are more resilient to social distancing significantly outperformed those with lower resilience during the COVID-19 outbreak, even after controlling for the standard risk factors. Similar cross-sectional return differentials already emerged before the COVID-19 crisis: the 2014-19 cumulative return differential between more and less resilient firms is of similar size as during the outbreak, suggesting growing awareness of pandemic risk well in advance of its materialization. Finally, we use stock option prices to infer the markets return expectations after the onset of the pandemic: even at a two-year horizon, stocks of more pandemic-resilient firms are expected to yield significantly lower returns than less resilient ones, reflecting their lower exposure to disaster risk. Hence, going forward, markets appear to price exposure to a new risk factor, namely, pandemic risk.
We consider the problem of designing a derivatives exchange aiming at addressing clients needs in terms of listed options and providing suitable liquidity. We proceed into two steps. First we use a quantization method to select the options that should be displayed by the exchange. Then, using a principal-agent approach, we design a make take fees contract between the exchange and the market maker. The role of this contract is to provide incentives to the market maker so that he offers small spreads for the whole range of listed options, hence attracting transactions and meeting the commercial requirements of the exchange.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
