Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userAn entropic characterization of long memory stationary process
107
0
0.0
(
0
)
Added by
Yiming Ding
Publication date
2016
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Long memory or long range dependency is an important phenomenon that may arise in the analysis of time series or spatial data. Most of the definitions of long memory of a stationary process $X={X_1, X_2,cdots,}$ are based on the second-order properties of the process. The excess entropy of a stationary process is the summation of redundancies which relates to the rate of convergence of the conditional entropy $H(X_n|X_{n-1},cdots, X_1)$ to the entropy rate. It is proved that the excess entropy is identical to the mutual information between the past and the future when the entropy $H(X_1)$ is finite. We suggest the definition that a stationary process is long memory if the excess entropy is infinite. Since the definition of excess entropy of a stationary process requires very weak moment condition on the distribution of the process, it can be applied to processes whose distributions without bounded second moment. A significant property of excess entropy is that it is invariant under invertible transformation, which enables us to know the excess entropy of a stationary process from the excess entropy of other process. For stationary Guassian process, the excess entropy characterization of long memory relates to popular characterization well. It is proved that the excess entropy of fractional Gaussian noise is infinite if the Hurst parameter $H in (1/2, 1)$.
rate research
Read More
Let ${X_n}_{n=0}^{infty}$ be a stationary real-valued time series with unknown distribution. Our goal is to estimate the conditional expectation of $X_{n+1}$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0le ile n$ in a strongly consistent way. Bailey and Ryabko proved that this is not possible even for ergodic binary time series if one estimates at all values of $n$. We propose a very simple algorithm which will make prediction infinitely often at carefully selected stopping times chosen by our rule. We show that under certain conditions our procedure is strongly (pointwise) consistent, and $L_2$ consistent without any condition. An upper bound on the growth of the stopping times is also presented in this paper.
The forecasting problem for a stationary and ergodic binary time series ${X_n}_{n=0}^{infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0le ile n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process ${X_n}$. It is known that this is not possible if one estimates at all values of $n$. We present a simple procedure which will attempt to make such a prediction infinitely often at carefully selected stopping times chosen by the algorithm. We show that the proposed procedure is consistent under certain conditions, and we estimate the growth rate of the stopping times.
The forward prediction problem for a binary time series ${X_n}_{n=0}^{infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0le ile n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process ${X_n}$. It is known that this is not possible if one estimates at all values of $n$. We present a simple procedure which will attempt to make such a prediction infinitely often at carefully selected stopping times chosen by the algorithm. The growth rate of the stopping times is also exhibited.
The setting is a stationary, ergodic time series. The challenge is to construct a sequence of functions, each based on only finite segments of the past, which together provide a strongly consistent estimator for the conditional probability of the next observation, given the infinite past. Ornstein gave such a construction for the case that the values are from a finite set, and recently Algoet extended the scheme to time series with coordinates in a Polish space. The present study relates a different solution to the challenge. The algorithm is simple and its verification is fairly transparent. Some extensions to regression, pattern recognition, and on-line forecasting are mentioned.
Let ${(X_i,Y_i)}$ be a stationary ergodic time series with $(X,Y)$ values in the product space $R^dbigotimes R .$ This study offers what is believed to be the first strongly consistent (with respect to pointwise, least-squares, and uniform distance) algorithm for inferring $m(x)=E[Y_0|X_0=x]$ under the presumption that $m(x)$ is uniformly Lipschitz continuous. Auto-regression, or forecasting, is an important special case, and as such our work extends the literature of nonparametric, nonlinear forecasting by circumventing customary mixing assumptions. The work is motivated by a time series model in stochastic finance and by perspectives of its contribution to the issues of universal time series estimation.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
