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Register a new userUniversal underpinning of human mobility in the real world and cyberspace
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Human movements in the real world and in cyberspace affect not only dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading and information diffusion but also social and economical activities such as urban planning and personalized recommendation in online shopping. Despite recent efforts in characterizing and modeling human behaviors in both the real and cyber worlds, the fundamental dynamics underlying human mobility have not been well understood. We develop a minimal, memory-based random walk model in limited space for reproducing, with a single parameter, the key statistical behaviors characterizing human movements in both spaces. The model is validated using big data from mobile phone and online commerce, suggesting memory-based random walk dynamics as the universal underpinning for human mobility, regardless of whether it occurs in the real world or in cyberspace.
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There is a contradiction at the heart of our current understanding of individual and collective mobility patterns. On one hand, a highly influential stream of literature on human mobility driven by analyses of massive empirical datasets finds that human movements show no evidence of characteristic spatial scales. There, human mobility is described as scale-free. On the other hand, in geography, the concept of scale, referring to meaningful levels of description from individual buildings through neighborhoods, cities, regions, and countries, is central for the description of various aspects of human behavior such as socio-economic interactions, or political and cultural dynamics. Here, we resolve this apparent paradox by showing that day-to-day human mobility does indeed contain meaningful scales, corresponding to spatial containers restricting mobility behavior. The scale-free results arise from aggregating displacements across containers. We present a simple model, which given a persons trajectory, infers their neighborhoods, cities, and so on, as well as the sizes of these geographical containers. We find that the containers characterizing the trajectories of more than 700,000 individuals do indeed have typical sizes. We show that our model generates highly realistic trajectories without overfitting and provides a new lens through which to understand the differences in mobility behaviour across countries, gender groups, and urban-rural areas.
Human mobility patterns are surprisingly structured. In spite of many hard to model factors, such as climate, culture, and socioeconomic opportunities, aggregate migration rates obey a universal, parameter-free, `radiation model. Recent work has further shown that the detailed spectral decomposition of these flows -- defined as the number of individuals that visit a given location with frequency $f$ from a distance $r$ away -- also obeys simple rules, namely, scaling as a universal inverse square law in the combination, $rf$. However, this surprising regularity, derived on general grounds, has not been explained through microscopic mechanisms of individual behavior. Here we confirm this by analyzing large-scale cell phone datasets from three distinct regions and show that a direct consequence of this scaling law is that the average `travel energy spent by visitors to a given location is constant across space, a finding reminiscent of the well-known travel budget hypothesis of human movement. The attractivity of different locations, which we define by the total number of visits to that location, also admits non-trivial, spatially-clustered structure. The observed pattern is consistent with the well-known central place theory in urban geography, as well as with the notion of Weber optimality in spatial economy, hinting to a collective human capacity of optimizing recurrent movements. We close by proposing a simple, microscopic human mobility model which simultaneously captures all our empirical findings. Our results have relevance for transportation, urban planning, geography, and other disciplines in which a deeper understanding of aggregate human mobility is key.
In recent years, we have seen scientists attempt to model and explain human dynamics and, in particular, human movement. Many aspects of our complex life are affected by human movements such as disease spread and epidemics modeling, city planning, wireless network development, and disaster relief, to name a few. Given the myriad of applications it is clear that a complete understanding of how people move in space can lead to huge benefits to our society. In most of the recent works, scientists have focused on the idea that people movements are biased towards frequently-visited locations. According to them, human movement is based on an exploration/exploitation dichotomy in which individuals choose new locations (exploration) or return to frequently-visited locations (exploitation). In this work, we focus on the concept of recency. We propose a model in which exploitation in human movement also considers recently-visited locations and not solely frequently-visited locations. We test our hypothesis against different empirical data of human mobility and show that our proposed model is able to better explain the human trajectories in these datasets.
Given the rapid recent trend of urbanization, a better understanding of how urban infrastructure mediates socioeconomic interactions and economic systems is of vital importance. While the accessibility of location-enabled devices as well as large-scale datasets of human activities, has fueled significant advances in our understanding, there is little agreement on the linkage between socioeconomic status and its influence on movement patterns, in particular, the role of inequality. Here, we analyze a heavily aggregated and anonymized summary of global mobility and investigate the relationships between socioeconomic status and mobility across a hundred cities in the US and Brazil. We uncover two types of relationships, finding either a clear connection or little-to-no interdependencies. The former tend to be characterized by low levels of public transportation usage, inequitable access to basic amenities and services, and segregated clusters of communities in terms of income, with the latter class showing the opposite trends. Our findings provide useful lessons in designing urban habitats that serve the larger interests of all inhabitants irrespective of their economic status.
Despite the long history of modelling human mobility, we continue to lack a highly accurate approach with low data requirements for predicting mobility patterns in cities. Here, we present a population-weighted opportunities model without any adjustable parameters to capture the underlying driving force accounting for human mobility patterns at the city scale. We use various mobility data collected from a number of cities with different characteristics to demonstrate the predictive power of our model. We find that insofar as the spatial distribution of population is available, our model offers universal prediction of mobility patterns in good agreement with real observations, including distance distribution, destination travel constraints and flux. In contrast, the models that succeed in modelling mobility patterns in countries are not applicable in cities, which suggests that there is a diversity of human mobility at different spatial scales. Our model has potential applications in many fields relevant to mobility behaviour in cities, without relying on previous mobility measurements.
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