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Despite the long history of modelling human mobility, we continue to lack a highly accurate approach with low data requirements for predicting mobility patterns in cities. Here, we present a population-weighted opportunities model without any adjustable parameters to capture the underlying driving force accounting for human mobility patterns at the city scale. We use various mobility data collected from a number of cities with different characteristics to demonstrate the predictive power of our model. We find that insofar as the spatial distribution of population is available, our model offers universal prediction of mobility patterns in good agreement with real observations, including distance distribution, destination travel constraints and flux. In contrast, the models that succeed in modelling mobility patterns in countries are not applicable in cities, which suggests that there is a diversity of human mobility at different spatial scales. Our model has potential applications in many fields relevant to mobility behaviour in cities, without relying on previous mobility measurements.
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Understanding quantitative relationships between urban elements is crucial for a wide range of applications. The observation at the macroscopic level demonstrates that the aggregated urban quantities (e.g., gross domestic product) scale systematically with population sizes across cities, also known as urban scaling laws. However, at the mesoscopic level, we lack an understanding of whether the simple scaling relationship holds within cities, which is a fundamental question regarding the spatial origin of scaling in urban systems. Here, by analyzing four extensive datasets covering millions of mobile phone users and urban facilities, we investigate the scaling phenomena within cities. We find that the mesoscopic infrastructure volume and socioeconomic activity scale sub- and super-linearly with the active population, respectively. For a same scaling phenomenon, however, the exponents vary in cities of similar population sizes. To explain these empirical observations, we propose a conceptual framework by considering the heterogeneous distributions of population and facilities, and the spatial interactions between them. Analytical and numerical results suggest that, despite the large number of complexities that influence urban activities, the simple interaction rules can effectively explain the observed regularity and heterogeneity in scaling behaviors within cities.
Social structures influence a variety of human behaviors including mobility patterns, but the extent to which one individuals movements can predict anothers remains an open question. Further, latent information about an individuals mobility can be present in the mobility patterns of both social and non-social ties, a distinction that has not yet been addressed. Here we develop a colocation network to distinguish the mobility patterns of an egos social ties from those of non-social colocators, individuals not socially connected to the ego but who nevertheless arrive at a location at the same time as the ego. We apply entropy and predictability measures to analyse and bound the predictive information of an individuals mobility pattern and the flow of that information from their top social ties and from their non-social colocators. While social ties generically provide more information than non-social colocators, we find that significant information is present in the aggregation of non-social colocators: 3-7 colocators can provide as much predictive information as the top social tie, and colocators can replace up to 85% of the predictive information about an ego, compared with social ties that can replace up to 94% of the egos predictability. The presence of predictive information among non-social colocators raises privacy concerns: given the increasing availability of real-time mobility traces from smartphones, individuals sharing data may be providing actionable information not just about their own movements but the movements of others whose data are absent, both known and unknown individuals.
The dynamics of citys spatial structures are determined by the coupling of functional components (such as restaurants and shops) and human beings within the city. Yet, there still lacks mechanism models to quantify the spatial distribution of functional components. Here, we establish a gradient model to simulate the density curves of multiple types of components based on the equilibria of gravitational and repulsive forces along the urban-rural gradient. The forces from city center to components are determined by both the citys attributes (land rent, population and peoples environmental preferences) and the components attributes (supply capacity, product transportability and environmental impacts). The simulation for the distribution curves of 22 types of components on the urban-rural gradient are a good fit for the real-world data in cities. Based on the 4 typical types of components, the model reveals a bottom-up self-organizing mechanism that is, the patterns in city development are determined by the economic, ecological, and social attributes of both cities and components. Based on the mechanism, we predict the distribution curves of many types of components along with the development of cities. The model provides a general tool for analyzing the distribution of objects on the gradients.
As a huge threat to the public health, Chinas air pollution has attracted extensive attention and continues to grow in tandem with the economy. Although the real-time air quality report can be utilized to update our knowledge on air quality, questions about how pollutants evolve across time and how pollutants are spatially correlated still remain a puzzle. In view of this point, we adopt the PMFG network method to analyze the six pollutants hourly data in 350 Chinese cities in an attempt to find out how these pollutants are correlated temporally and spatially. In terms of time dimension, the results indicate that, except for O$_3$, the pollutants have a common feature of the strong intraday patterns of which the daily variations are composed of two contraction periods and two expansion periods. Besides, all the time series of the six pollutants possess strong long-term correlations, and this temporal memory effect helps to explain why smoggy days are always followed by one after another. In terms of space dimension, the correlation structure shows that O$_3$ is characterized by the highest spatial connections. The PMFGs reveal the relationship between this spatial correlation and provincial administrative divisions by filtering the hierarchical structure in the correlation matrix and refining the cliques as the tinny spatial clusters. Finally, we check the stability of the correlation structure and conclude that, except for PM$_{10}$ and O$_3$, the other pollutants have an overall stable correlation, and all pollutants have a slight trend to become more divergent in space. These results not only enhance our understanding of the air pollutants evolutionary process, but also shed lights on the application of complex network methods into geographic issues.
Despite their importance for urban planning, traffic forecasting, and the spread of biological and mobile viruses, our understanding of the basic laws governing human motion remains limited thanks to the lack of tools to monitor the time resolved location of individuals. Here we study the trajectory of 100,000 anonymized mobile phone users whose position is tracked for a six month period. We find that in contrast with the random trajectories predicted by the prevailing Levy flight and random walk models, human trajectories show a high degree of temporal and spatial regularity, each individual being characterized by a time independent characteristic length scale and a significant probability to return to a few highly frequented locations. After correcting for differences in travel distances and the inherent anisotropy of each trajectory, the individual travel patterns collapse into a single spatial probability distribution, indicating that despite the diversity of their travel history, humans follow simple reproducible patterns. This inherent similarity in travel patterns could impact all phenomena driven by human mobility, from epidemic prevention to emergency response, urban planning and agent based modeling.
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