No Arabic abstract
The results of the public opinion poll performed in January 2015, just after the terrorist attack on the French satirical weekly magazine Charlie Hebdo and the kosher supermarket in Paris, when 17 people were killed, showed that a significant number of French citizens held conspiratorial beliefs about it (17 %). This gave reason to an alternative analysis of public opinion, presented in this paper. We collected 990 on-line articles mentioning Charlie Hebdo from Le Monde web site (one of the leading French news agencies), and looked at the ones that contained words related with conspiracy (in French: `complot, `conspiration or `conjuration). Then we analyzed the readers response, performing a semantic analysis of the 16490 comments posted on-line as reaction to the above articles. We identified 2 attempts to launch a conspiratorial rumour. A more recent Le Monde article, which reflects on those early conspiratorial attempts from a rational perspective, and the commentary thereon, showed that the readers have more interest in understanding the possible causes for the onset of conspiratorial beliefs then to delve into the arguments that the conspiracists previously brought up to the public. We discuss the results of the above semantic analysis and give interpretation of the opinion dynamics measured in the data.
Parents - particularly moms - increasingly consult social media for support when taking decisions about their young children, and likely also when advising other family members such as elderly relatives. Minimizing malignant online influences is therefore crucial to securing their assent for policies ranging from vaccinations, masks and social distancing against the pandemic, to household best practices against climate change, to acceptance of future 5G towers nearby. Here we show how a strengthening of bonds across online communities during the pandemic, has led to non-Covid-19 conspiracy theories (e.g. fluoride, chemtrails, 5G) attaining heightened access to mainstream parent communities. Alternative health communities act as the critical conduits between conspiracy theorists and parents, and make the narratives more palatable to the latter. We demonstrate experimentally that these inter-community bonds can perpetually generate new misinformation, irrespective of any changes in factual information. Our findings show explicitly why Facebooks current policies have failed to stop the mainstreaming of non-Covid-19 and Covid-19 conspiracy theories and misinformation, and why targeting the largest communities will not work. A simple yet exactly solvable and empirically grounded mathematical model, shows how modest tailoring of mainstream communities couplings could prevent them from tipping against establishment guidance. Our conclusions should also apply to other social media platforms and topics.
Rumors and conspiracy theories thrive in environments of low confidence and low trust. Consequently, it is not surprising that ones related to the Covid-19 pandemic are proliferating given the lack of any authoritative scientific consensus on the virus, its spread and containment, or on the long term social and economic ramifications of the pandemic. Among the stories currently circulating are ones suggesting that the 5G network activates the virus, that the pandemic is a hoax perpetrated by a global cabal, that the virus is a bio-weapon released deliberately by the Chinese, or that Bill Gates is using it as cover to launch a global surveillance regime. While some may be quick to dismiss these stories as having little impact on real-world behavior, recent events including the destruction of property, racially fueled attacks against Asian Americans, and demonstrations espousing resistance to public health orders countermand such conclusions. Inspired by narrative theory, we crawl social media sites and news reports and, through the application of automated machine-learning methods, discover the underlying narrative frameworks supporting the generation of these stories. We show how the various narrative frameworks fueling rumors and conspiracy theories rely on the alignment of otherwise disparate domains of knowledge, and consider how they attach to the broader reporting on the pandemic. These alignments and attachments, which can be monitored in near real-time, may be useful for identifying areas in the news that are particularly vulnerable to reinterpretation by conspiracy theorists. Understanding the dynamics of storytelling on social media and the narrative frameworks that provide the generative basis for these stories may also be helpful for devising methods to disrupt their spread.
We evaluate the rating system of Heroes of Newerth (HoN), a multiplayer online action role-playing game, by using statistical analysis and comparison of a players in-game performance metrics and the player rating assigned by the rating system. The datasets for the analysis have been extracted from the web sites that record the players ratings and a number of empirical metrics. Results suggest that the HoNs Matchmaking rating algorithm, while generally capturing the skill level of the player well, also has weaknesses, which have been exploited by players to achieve a higher placement on the ranking ladder than deserved by actual skill. In addition, we also illustrate the effects of the choice of the business model (from pay-to-play to free-to-play) on player population.
Modern world builds on the resilience of interdependent infrastructures characterized as complex networks. Recently, a framework for analysis of interdependent networks has been developed to explain the mechanism of resilience in interdependent networks. Here we extend this interdependent network model by considering flows in the networks and study the systems resilience under different attack strategies. In our model, nodes may fail due to either overload or loss of interdependency. Under the interaction between these two failure mechanisms, it is shown that interdependent scale-free networks show extreme vulnerability. The resilience of interdependent SF networks is found in our simulation much smaller than single SF network or interdependent SF networks without flows.
The patterns of life exhibited by large populations have been described and modeled both as a basic science exercise and for a range of applied goals such as reducing automotive congestion, improving disaster response, and even predicting the location of individuals. However, these studies previously had limited access to conversation content, rendering changes in expression as a function of movement invisible. In addition, they typically use the communication between a mobile phone and its nearest antenna tower to infer position, limiting the spatial resolution of the data to the geographical region serviced by each cellphone tower. We use a collection of 37 million geolocated tweets to characterize the movement patterns of 180,000 individuals, taking advantage of several orders of magnitude of increased spatial accuracy relative to previous work. Employing the recently developed sentiment analysis instrument known as the hedonometer, we characterize changes in word usage as a function of movement, and find that expressed happiness increases logarithmically with distance from an individuals average location.