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Register a new userMicrosimulations of Arching, Clogging, and Bursty Exit Phenomena in Crowd Dynamics
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We present in this paper the behavior of an artificial agent who is a member of a crowd. The behavior is based on the social comparison theory, as well as the trajectory mapping towards an agents goal considering the agents field of vision. The crowd of artificial agents were able to exhibit arching, clogging, and bursty exit rates. We were also able to observe a new phenomenon we called double arching, which happens towards the end of the simulation, and whose onset is exhibited by a calm density graph within the exit passage. The density graph is usually bursty at this area. Because of these exhibited phenomena, we can use these agents with high confidence to perform microsimulation studies for modeling the behavior of humans and objects in very realistic ways.
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The arching phenomenon is an emergent pattern formed by a $c$-sized crowd of intelligent, goal-oriented, autonomous, heterogeneous individuals moving towards a $w$-wide exit along a long $W$-wide corridor, where $W>w$. We collected empirical data from microsimulations to identify the combination effects of~$c$ and~$w$ to the time~$T$ of the onset of and the size~$S$ of the formation of the arch. The arch takes on the form of the perimeter of a half ellipse halved along the minor axis. We measured the~$S$ with respect to the lengths of the major~$M$ and minor~$m$ axes of the ellipse, respectively. The mathematical description of the formation of this phenomenon will be an important information in the design of walkways to control and easily direct the flow of large crowds, especially during panic egress conditions.
In online social media systems users are not only posting, consuming, and resharing content, but also creating new and destroying existing connections in the underlying social network. While each of these two types of dynamics has individually been studied in the past, much less is known about the connection between the two. How does user information posting and seeking behavior interact with the evolution of the underlying social network structure? Here, we study ways in which network structure reacts to users posting and sharing content. We examine the complete dynamics of the Twitter information network, where users post and reshare information while they also create and destroy connections. We find that the dynamics of network structure can be characterized by steady rates of change, interrupted by sudden bursts. Information diffusion in the form of cascades of post re-sharing often creates such sudden bursts of new connections, which significantly change users local network structure. These bursts transform users networks of followers to become structurally more cohesive as well as more homogenous in terms of follower interests. We also explore the effect of the information content on the dynamics of the network and find evidence that the appearance of new topics and real-world events can lead to significant changes in edge creations and deletions. Lastly, we develop a model that quantifies the dynamics of the network and the occurrence of these bursts as a function of the information spreading through the network. The model can successfully predict which information diffusion events will lead to bursts in network dynamics.
We propose an entropic geometrical model of psycho-physical crowd dynamics (with dissipative crowd kinematics), using Feynman action-amplitude formalism that operates on three synergetic levels: macro, meso and micro. The intent is to explain the dynamics of crowds simultaneously and consistently across these three levels, in order to characterize their geometrical properties particularly with respect to behavior regimes and the state changes between them. Its most natural statistical descriptor is crowd entropy $S$ that satisfies the Prigogines extended second law of thermodynamics, $partial_tSgeq 0$ (for any nonisolated multi-component system). Qualitative similarities and superpositions between individual and crowd configuration manifolds motivate our claim that goal-directed crowd movement operates under entropy conservation, $partial_tS = 0$, while natural crowd dynamics operates under (monotonically) increasing entropy function, $partial_tS > 0$. Between these two distinct topological phases lies a phase transition with a chaotic inter-phase. Both inertial crowd dynamics and its dissipative kinematics represent diffusion processes on the crowd manifold governed by the Ricci flow, with the associated Perelman entropy-action. Keywords: Crowd psycho-physical dynamics, action-amplitude formalism, crowd manifold, Ricci flow, Perelman entropy, topological phase transition
In this paper we present ACEMod, an agent-based modelling framework for studying influenza epidemics in Australia. The simulator is designed to analyse the spatiotemporal spread of contagion and influenza spatial synchrony across the nation. The individual-based epidemiological model accounts for mobility (worker and student commuting) patterns and human interactions derived from the 2006 Australian census and other national data sources. The high-precision simulation comprises 19.8 million stochastically generated software agents and traces the dynamics of influenza viral infection and transmission at several scales. Using this approach, we are able to synthesise epidemics in Australia with varying outbreak locations and severity. For each scenario, we investigate the spatiotemporal profiles of these epidemics, both qualitatively and quantitatively, via incidence curves, prevalence choropleths, and epidemic synchrony. This analysis exemplifies the nature of influenza pandemics within Australia and facilitates future planning of effective intervention, mitigation and crisis management strategies.
Inferring topological characteristics of complex networks from observed data is critical to understand the dynamical behavior of networked systems, ranging from the Internet and the World Wide Web to biological networks and social networks. Prior studies usually focus on the structure-based estimation to infer network sizes, degree distributions, average degrees, and more. Little effort attempted to estimate the specific degree of each vertex from a sampled induced graph, which prevents us from measuring the lethality of nodes in protein networks and influencers in social networks. The current approaches dramatically fail for a tiny sampled induced graph and require a specific sampling method and a large sample size. These approaches neglect information of the vertex state, representing the dynamical behavior of the networked system, such as the biomass of species or expression of a gene, which is useful for degree estimation. We fill this gap by developing a framework to infer individual vertex degrees using both information of the sampled topology and vertex state. We combine the mean-field theory with combinatorial optimization to learn vertex degrees. Experimental results on real networks with a variety of dynamics demonstrate that our framework can produce reliable degree estimates and dramatically improve existing link prediction methods by replacing the sampled degrees with our estimated degrees.
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