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Register a new userA Study on the Effect of Exit Widths and Crowd Sizes in the Formation of Arch in Clogged Crowds
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The arching phenomenon is an emergent pattern formed by a $c$-sized crowd of intelligent, goal-oriented, autonomous, heterogeneous individuals moving towards a $w$-wide exit along a long $W$-wide corridor, where $W>w$. We collected empirical data from microsimulations to identify the combination effects of~$c$ and~$w$ to the time~$T$ of the onset of and the size~$S$ of the formation of the arch. The arch takes on the form of the perimeter of a half ellipse halved along the minor axis. We measured the~$S$ with respect to the lengths of the major~$M$ and minor~$m$ axes of the ellipse, respectively. The mathematical description of the formation of this phenomenon will be an important information in the design of walkways to control and easily direct the flow of large crowds, especially during panic egress conditions.
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We present in this paper the behavior of an artificial agent who is a member of a crowd. The behavior is based on the social comparison theory, as well as the trajectory mapping towards an agents goal considering the agents field of vision. The crowd of artificial agents were able to exhibit arching, clogging, and bursty exit rates. We were also able to observe a new phenomenon we called double arching, which happens towards the end of the simulation, and whose onset is exhibited by a calm density graph within the exit passage. The density graph is usually bursty at this area. Because of these exhibited phenomena, we can use these agents with high confidence to perform microsimulation studies for modeling the behavior of humans and objects in very realistic ways.
Agent-based modelling is a valuable approach for systems whose behaviour is driven by the interactions between distinct entities. They have shown particular promise as a means of modelling crowds of people in streets, public transport terminals, stadiums, etc. However, the methodology faces a fundamental difficulty: there are no established mechanisms for dynamically incorporating real-time data into models. This limits simulations that are inherently dynamic, such as pedestrian movements, to scenario testing of, for example, the potential impacts of new architectural configurations on movements. This paper begins to address this fundamental gap by demonstrating how a particle filter could be used to incorporate real data into an agent-based model of pedestrian movements at run time. The experiments show that it is indeed possible to use a particle filter to perform online (real time) model optimisation. However, as the number of agents increases, the number of individual particles (and hence the computational complexity) required increases exponentially. By laying the groundwork for the real-time simulation of crowd movements, this paper has implications for the management of complex environments (both nationally and internationally) such as transportation hubs, hospitals, shopping centres, etc.
Trajectory interpolation, the process of filling-in the gaps and removing noise from observed agent trajectories, is an essential task for the motion inference in multi-agent setting. A desired trajectory interpolation method should be robust to noise, changes in environments or agent densities, while also being yielding realistic group movement behaviors. Such realistic behaviors are, however, challenging to model as they require avoidance of agent-agent or agent-environment collisions and, at the same time, seek computational efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel framework composed of data-driven priors (local, global or combined) and an efficient optimization strategy for multi-agent trajectory interpolation. The data-driven priors implicitly encode the dependencies of movements of multiple agents and the collision-avoiding desiderata, enabling elimination of costly pairwise collision constraints and resulting in reduced computational complexity and often improved estimation. Various combinations of priors and optimization algorithms are evaluated in comprehensive simulated experiments. Our experimental results reveal important insights, including the significance of the global flow prior and the lesser-than-expected influence of data-driven collision priors.
Human groups can perform extraordinary accurate estimations compared to individuals by simply using the mean, median or geometric mean of the individual estimations [Galton 1907, Surowiecki 2005, Page 2008]. However, this is true only for some tasks and in general these collective estimations show strong biases. The method fails also when allowing for social interactions, which makes the collective estimation worse as individuals tend to converge to the biased result [Lorenz et al. 2011]. Here we show that there is a bright side of this apparently negative impact of social interactions into collective intelligence. We found that some individuals resist the social influence and, when using the median of this subgroup, we can eliminate the bias of the wisdom of the full crowd. To find this subgroup of individuals more confident in their private estimations than in the social influence, we model individuals as estimators that combine private and social information with different relative weights [Perez-Escudero & de Polavieja 2011, Arganda et al. 2012]. We then computed the geometric mean for increasingly smaller groups by eliminating those using in their estimations higher values of the social influence weight. The trend obtained in this procedure gives unbiased results, in contrast to the simpler method of computing the median of the complete group. Our results show that, while a simple operation like the mean, median or geometric mean of a group may not allow groups to make good estimations, a more complex operation taking into account individuality in the social dynamics can lead to a better collective intelligence.
In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number ($R_{0}$). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the correlation of two epidemiologically measurable parameters on the lockdown effect and also on $R_{0}$. Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number ($R_{t}$) during the projection period indicates if the lockdown measures are completely removed after May 17, 2020, a high spike in notified cases may be seen in those locations. Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India.
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