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Register a new userOn the Role of Conductance, Geography and Topology in Predicting Hashtag Virality
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We focus on three aspects of the early spread of a hashtag in order to predict whether it will go viral: the network properties of the subset of users tweeting the hashtag, its geographical properties, and, most importantly, its conductance-related properties. One of our significant contributions is to discover the critical role played by the conductance based features for the successful prediction of virality. More specifically, we show that the first derivative of the conductance gives an early indication of whether the hashtag is going to go viral or not. We present a detailed experimental evaluation of the effect of our various categories of features on the virality prediction task. When compared to the baselines and the state of the art techniques proposed in the literature our feature set is able to achieve significantly better accuracy on a large dataset of 7.7 million users and all their tweets over a period of month, as well as on existing datasets.
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Topological aspects, like community structure, and temporal activity patterns, like burstiness, have been shown to severly influence the speed of spreading in temporal networks. We study the influence of the topology on the susceptible-infected (SI) spreading on time stamped communication networks, as obtained from a dataset of mobile phone records. We consider city level networks with intra- and inter-city connections. The networks using only intra-city links are usually sparse, where the spreading depends mainly on the average degree. The inter-city links serve as bridges in spreading, speeding up considerably the process. We demonstrate the effect also on model simulations.
We propose a stochastic model for the diffusion of topics entering a social network modeled by a Watts-Strogatz graph. Our model sets into play an implicit competition between these topics as they vie for the attention of users in the network. The dynamics of our model are based on notions taken from real-world OSNs like Twitter where users either adopt an exogenous topic or copy topics from their neighbors leading to endogenous propagation. When instantiated correctly, the model achieves a viral regime where a few topics garner unusually good response from the network, closely mimicking the behavior of real-world OSNs. Our main contribution is our description of how clusters of proximate users that have spoken on the topic merge to form a large giant component making a topic go viral. This demonstrates that it is not weak ties but actually strong ties that play a major part in virality. We further validate our model and our hypotheses about its behavior by comparing our simulation results with the results of a measurement study conducted on real data taken from Twitter.
Social media are massive marketplaces where ideas and news compete for our attention. Previous studies have shown that quality is not a necessary condition for online virality and that knowledge about peer choices can distort the relationship between quality and popularity. However, these results do not explain the viral spread of low-quality information, such as the digital misinformation that threatens our democracy. We investigate quality discrimination in a stylized model of online social network, where individual agents prefer quality information, but have behavioral limitations in managing a heavy flow of information. We measure the relationship between the quality of an idea and its likelihood to become prevalent at the system level. We find that both information overload and limited attention contribute to a degradation in the markets discriminative power. A good tradeoff between discriminative power and diversity of information is possible according to the model. However, calibration with empirical data characterizing information load and finite attention in real social media reveals a weak correlation between quality and popularity of information. In these realistic conditions, the model predicts that high-quality information has little advantage over low-quality information.
We investigate the impact of noise and topology on opinion diversity in social networks. We do so by extending well-established models of opinion dynamics to a stochastic setting where agents are subject both to assimilative forces by their local social interactions, as well as to idiosyncratic factors preventing their population from reaching consensus. We model the latter to account for both scenarios where noise is entirely exogenous to peer influence and cases where it is instead endogenous, arising from the agents desire to maintain some uniqueness in their opinions. We derive a general analytical expression for opinion diversity, which holds for any network and depends on the networks topology through its spectral properties alone. Using this expression, we find that opinion diversity decreases as communities and clusters are broken down. We test our predictions against data describing empirical influence networks between major news outlets and find that incorporating our measure in linear models for the sentiment expressed by such sources on a variety of topics yields a notable improvement in terms of explanatory power.
Animated GIFs are becoming increasingly popular in online communication. People use them to express emotion, share their interests and enhance (or even replace) short-form texting; they are a new means to tell visual stories. Some creative animated GIFs are highly addictive to watch, and eventually become viral -- they circulate rapidly and widely within the network. What makes certain animated GIFs go viral? In this paper, we study the virality of animated GIFs by analyzing over 10 months of complete data logs (more than 1B posts and 12B reblogs) on Tumblr, one of the largest repositories of animated GIFs on the Internet. We conduct a series of quantitative and comparative studies on Tumblr data, comparing major types of online content -- text, images, videos, and animated GIFs. We report on a number of interesting, new findings on animated GIFs. We show that people tend to make animated GIFs easily searchable and discoverable by adding more hashtags than other content types. We also show that animated GIFs tend to go more viral than images and videos on Tumblr. With more in-depth analysis, we present that animated GIFs tend to get reblogged more and followed more from non-followers, while animated GIFs have more recurrence of a post. Lastly, we show that the virality of animated GIFs is more easily predictable than that of images and videos.
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