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We investigate the impact of noise and topology on opinion diversity in social networks. We do so by extending well-established models of opinion dynamics to a stochastic setting where agents are subject both to assimilative forces by their local social interactions, as well as to idiosyncratic factors preventing their population from reaching consensus. We model the latter to account for both scenarios where noise is entirely exogenous to peer influence and cases where it is instead endogenous, arising from the agents desire to maintain some uniqueness in their opinions. We derive a general analytical expression for opinion diversity, which holds for any network and depends on the networks topology through its spectral properties alone. Using this expression, we find that opinion diversity decreases as communities and clusters are broken down. We test our predictions against data describing empirical influence networks between major news outlets and find that incorporating our measure in linear models for the sentiment expressed by such sources on a variety of topics yields a notable improvement in terms of explanatory power.
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Online social networks are often subject to influence campaigns by malicious actors through the use of automated accounts known as bots. We consider the problem of detecting bots in online social networks and assessing their impact on the opinions of individuals. We begin by analyzing the behavior of bots in social networks and identify that they exhibit heterophily, meaning they interact with humans more than other bots. We use this property to develop a detection algorithm based on the Ising model from statistical physics. The bots are identified by solving a minimum cut problem. We show that this Ising model algorithm can identify bots with higher accuracy while utilizing much less data than other state of the art methods. We then develop a a function we call generalized harmonic influence centrality to estimate the impact bots have on the opinions of users in social networks. This function is based on a generalized opinion dynamics model and captures how the activity level and network connectivity of the bots shift equilibrium opinions. To apply generalized harmonic influence centrality to real social networks, we develop a deep neural network to measure the opinions of users based on their social network posts. Using this neural network, we then calculate the generalized harmonic influence centrality of bots in multiple real social networks. For some networks we find that a limited number of bots can cause non-trivial shifts in the population opinions. In other networks, we find that the bots have little impact. Overall we find that generalized harmonic influence centrality is a useful operational tool to measure the impact of bots in social networks.
This paper explains the design of a social network analysis framework, developed under DARPAs SocialSim program, with novel architecture that models human emotional, cognitive and social factors. Our framework is both theory and data-driven, and utilizes domain expertise. Our simulation effort helps in understanding how information flows and evolves in social media platforms. We focused on modeling three information domains: cryptocurrencies, cyber threats, and software vulnerabilities for the three interrelated social environments: GitHub, Reddit, and Twitter. We participated in the SocialSim DARPA Challenge in December 2018, in which our models were subjected to extensive performance evaluation for accuracy, generalizability, explainability, and experimental power. This paper reports the main concepts and models, utilized in our social media modeling effort in developing a multi-resolution simulation at the user, community, population, and content levels.
We study a tractable opinion dynamics model that generates long-run disagreements and persistent opinion fluctuations. Our model involves an inhomogeneous stochastic gossip process of continuous opinion dynamics in a society consisting of two types of agents: regular agents, who update their beliefs according to information that they receive from their social neighbors; and stubborn agents, who never update their opinions. When the society contains stubborn agents with different opinions, the belief dynamics never lead to a consensus (among the regular agents). Instead, beliefs in the society fail to converge almost surely, the belief profile keeps on fluctuating in an ergodic fashion, and it converges in law to a non-degenerate random vector. The structure of the network and the location of the stubborn agents within it shape the opinion dynamics. The expected belief vector evolves according to an ordinary differential equation coinciding with the Kolmogorov backward equation of a continuous-time Markov chain with absorbing states corresponding to the stubborn agents and converges to a harmonic vector, with every regular agents value being the weighted average of its neighbors values, and boundary conditions corresponding to the stubborn agents. Expected cross-products of the agents beliefs allow for a similar characterization in terms of coupled Markov chains on the network. We prove that, in large-scale societies which are highly fluid, meaning that the product of the mixing time of the Markov chain on the graph describing the social network and the relative size of the linkages to stubborn agents vanishes as the population size grows large, a condition of emph{homogeneous influence} emerges, whereby the stationary beliefs marginal distributions of most of the regular agents have approximately equal first and second moments.
Current social networks are of extremely large-scale generating tremendous information flows at every moment. How information diffuse over social networks has attracted much attention from both industry and academics. Most of the existing works on information diffusion analysis are based on machine learning methods focusing on social network structure analysis and empirical data mining. However, the dynamics of information diffusion, which are heavily influenced by network users decisions, actions and their socio-economic interactions, is generally ignored by most of existing works. In this paper, we propose an evolutionary game theoretic framework to model the dynamic information diffusion process in social networks. Specifically, we derive the information diffusion dynamics in complete networks, uniform degree and non-uniform degree networks, with the highlight of two special networks, ErdH{o}s-Renyi random network and the Barabasi-Albert scale-free network. We find that the dynamics of information diffusion over these three kinds of networks are scale-free and the same with each other when the network scale is sufficiently large. To verify our theoretical analysis, we perform simulations for the information diffusion over synthetic networks and real-world Facebook networks. Moreover, we also conduct experiment on Twitter hashtags dataset, which shows that the proposed game theoretic model can well fit and predict the information diffusion over real social networks.
Analysis of opinion dynamics in social networks plays an important role in todays life. For applications such as predicting users political preference, it is particularly important to be able to analyze the dynamics of competing opinions. While observing the evolution of polar opinions of a social networks users over time, can we tell when the network behaved abnormally? Furthermore, can we predict how the opinions of the users will change in the future? Do opinions evolve according to existing network opinion dynamics models? To answer such questions, it is not sufficient to study individual user behavior, since opinions can spread far beyond users egonets. We need a method to analyze opinion dynamics of all network users simultaneously and capture the effect of individuals behavior on the global evolution pattern of the social network. In this work, we introduce Social Network Distance (SND) - a distance measure that quantifies the cost of evolution of one snapshot of a social network into another snapshot under various models of polar opinion propagation. SND has a rich semantics of a transportation problem, yet, is computable in time linear in the number of users, which makes SND applicable to the analysis of large-scale online social networks. In our experiments with synthetic and real-world Twitter data, we demonstrate the utility of our distance measure for anomalous event detection. It achieves a true positive rate of 0.83, twice as high as that of alternatives. When employed for opinion prediction in Twitter, our methods accuracy is 75.63%, which is 7.5% higher than that of the next best method. Source Code: https://cs.ucsb.edu/~victor/pub/ucsb/dbl/snd/
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