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Register a new userImprovements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA
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Prediction of the shocks arrival times (SATs) at the Earth is very important for space weather forecast. There is a well-known SAT model, STOA, which is widely used in the space weather forecast. However, the shock transit time from STOA model usually has a relative large error compared to the real measurements. In addition, STOA tends to yield too much `yes prediction, which causes a large number of false alarms. Therefore, in this work, we work on the modification of STOA model. First, we give a new method to calculate the shock transit time by modifying the way to use the solar wind speed in STOA model. Second, we develop new criteria for deciding whether the shock will arrive at the Earth with the help of the sunspot numbers and the angle distances of the flare events. It is shown that our work can improve the SATs prediction significantly, especially the prediction of flare events without shocks arriving at the Earth.
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This paper develops the zero-dimensional (0D) hydrodynamic coronal loop model Enthalpy-based Thermal Evolution of Loops (EBTEL) proposed by Klimchuk et al (2008), which studies the plasma response to evolving coronal heating, especially impulsive heating events. The basis of EBTEL is the modelling of mass exchange between the corona and transition region and chromosphere in response to heating variations, with the key parameter being the ratio of transition region to coronal radiation. We develop new models for this parameter that now include gravitational stratification and a physically motivated approach to radiative cooling. A number of examples are presented, including nanoflares in short and long loops, and a small flare. The new features in EBTEL are important for accurate tracking of, in particular, the density. The 0D results are compared to a 1D hydro code (Hydrad) with generally good agreement. EBTEL is suitable for general use as a tool for (a) quick-look results of loop evolution in response to a given heating function, (b) extensive parameter surveys and (c) situations where the modelling of hundreds or thousands of elemental loops is needed. A single run takes a few seconds on a contemporary laptop.
Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to $2700 : km : s^{-1}$). We track the CMEs to $34.9 pm 7.1$ degrees elongation from the Sun with J-maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of $-26.4 pm 15.3$ hours. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (Fixed-$Phi$, Harmonic Mean, Self-Similar Expansion), and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is $8.1 pm 6.3$ hours ($rms$ value of 10.9h). Speeds are consistent to within $284 pm 288 : km : s^{-1}$. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to $6.1 pm 5.0$ hours ($rms$ value of 7.9h), and for the speeds to $53 pm 50 : km : s^{-1}$. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.
In this paper we calculate the delay of the arrival times of visible photons on the focal plane of a telescope and its fluctuations as function of local atmospheric conditions (temperature, pressure, chemical composition, seeing values) and telescope diameter. The aim is to provide a model for delay and its fluctuations accurate to the picosecond level, as required by several very high time resolution astrophysical applications, such as comparison of radio and optical data on Giant Radio Bursts from optical pulsars, and Hanbury Brown Twiss Intensity Interferometry with Cerenkov light detectors. The results here presented have been calculated for the ESO telescopes in Chile (NTT, VLT, E-ELT), but the model can be easily applied to other sites and telescope diameters. Finally, we describe a theoretical mathematical model for calculating the Fried radius through the study of delay time fluctuations.
We model ideal arrival-time measurements for free quantum particles and for particles subject to an external interaction by means of a narrow and weak absorbing potential. This approach is related to the operational approach of measuring the first photon emitted from a two-level atom illuminated by a laser. By operator-normalizing the resulting time-of-arrival distribution, a distribution is obtained which for freely moving particles not only recovers the axiomatically derived distribution of Kijowski for states with purely positive momenta but is also applicable to general momentum components. For particles interacting with a square barrier the mean arrival time and corresponding ``tunneling time obtained at the transmission side of the barrier becomes independent of the barrier width (Hartman effect) for arbitrarily wide barriers, i.e., without the transition to the ultra-opaque, classical-like regime dominated by wave packet components above the barrier.
In recent years, instrumentation enabling pulsar observations with unprecedentedly high fractional bandwidth has been under development which can be used to substantially improve the precision of pulsar timing experiments. The traditional template-matching method used to calculate pulse times-of-arrival (ToAs), may not function effectively on these broadband data due to a variety of effects such as diffractive scintillation in the interstellar medium, profile variation as a function of frequency, dispersion measure (DM) evolution and so forth. In this paper, we describe the channelised Discrete Fourier Transform method that can greatly mitigate the influence of the aforementioned effects when measuring ToAs from broadband timing data. The method is tested on simulated data, and its potential in improving timing precision is shown. We further apply the method to PSR J1909$-$3744 data collected at the Nanc{c}ay Radio Telescope with the Nanc{c}ay Ultimate Pulsar Processing Instrument. We demonstrate a removal of systematics due to the scintillation effect as well as improvement on ToA measurement uncertainties. Our method also determines temporal variations in dispersion measure, which are consistent with multi-channel timing approaches used earlier.
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