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Register a new userConnecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU
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Added by
Christian M\\\"ostl
Publication date
2014
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to $2700 : km : s^{-1}$). We track the CMEs to $34.9 pm 7.1$ degrees elongation from the Sun with J-maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of $-26.4 pm 15.3$ hours. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (Fixed-$Phi$, Harmonic Mean, Self-Similar Expansion), and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is $8.1 pm 6.3$ hours ($rms$ value of 10.9h). Speeds are consistent to within $284 pm 288 : km : s^{-1}$. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to $6.1 pm 5.0$ hours ($rms$ value of 7.9h), and for the speeds to $53 pm 50 : km : s^{-1}$. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.
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Aims. The magnetic field of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) determines their structure, evolution, and energetics, as well as their geoeffectiveness. However, we currently lack routine diagnostics of the near-Sun CME magnetic field, which is crucial for determining the subsequent evolution of CMEs. Methods. We recently presented a method to infer the near-Sun magnetic field magnitude of CMEs and then extrapolate it to 1 AU. This method uses relatively easy to deduce observational estimates of the magnetic helicity in CME-source regions along with geometrical CME fits enabled by coronagraph observations. We hereby perform a parametric study of this method aiming to assess its robustness. We use statistics of active region (AR) helicities and CME geometrical parameters to determine a matrix of plausible near-Sun CME magnetic field magnitudes. In addition, we extrapolate this matrix to 1 AU and determine the anticipated range of CME magnetic fields at 1 AU representing the radial falloff of the magnetic field in the CME out to interplanetary (IP) space by a power law with index aB. Results. The resulting distribution of the near-Sun (at 10 Rs ) CME magnetic fields varies in the range [0.004, 0.02] G, comparable to, or higher than, a few existing observational inferences of the magnetic field in the quiescent corona at the same distance. We also find that a theoretically and observationally motivated range exists around aB = -1.6 +-0.2, thereby leading to a ballpark agreement between our estimates and observationally inferred field magnitudes of magnetic clouds (MCs) at L1. Conclusions. In a statistical sense, our method provides results that are consistent with observations.
We analyse in this work the propagation and geoeffectiveness of four successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted from the Sun during 21--23 May 2013 and that were detected in interplanetary space by the Wind and/or STEREO-A spacecraft. All these CMEs featured critical aspects for understanding so-called problem space weather storms at Earth. In the first three events a limb CMEs resulted in moderately geoeffective in-situ structures at their target location in terms of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index (either measured or estimated). The fourth CME, which also caused a moderate geomagnetic response, erupted from close to the disc centre as seen from Earth, but it was not visible in coronagraph images from the spacecraft along the Sun--Earth line and appeared narrow and faint from off-angle viewpoints. Making the correct connection between CMEs at the Sun and their in-situ counterparts is often difficult for problem storms. We investigate these four CMEs using multiwavelength and multipoint remote-sensing observations (extreme ultraviolet, white light, and radio), aided by 3D heliospheric modelling, in order to follow their propagation in the corona and in interplanetary space and to assess their impact at 1 AU. Finally, we emphasise the difficulties in forecasting moderate space weather effects provoked by problematic and ambiguous events and the importance of multispacecraft data for observing and modelling problem storms.
The Coronal Multichannel Polarimeter (CoMP) measures not only the polarization of coronal emission, but also the full radiance profiles of coronal emission lines. For the first time, CoMP observations provide high-cadence image sequences of the coronal line intensity, Doppler shift and line width simultaneously in a large field of view. By studying the Doppler shift and line width we may explore more of the physical processes of CME initiation and propagation. Here we identify a list of CMEs observed by CoMP and present the first results of these observations. Our preliminary analysis shows that CMEs are usually associated with greatly increased Doppler shift and enhanced line width. These new observations provide not only valuable information to constrain CME models and probe various processes during the initial propagation of CMEs in the low corona, but also offer a possible cost-effective and low-risk means of space weather monitoring.
Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) often consist of a shock wave, sheath region, and ejecta region. The ejecta regions are divided into two broad classes: magnetic clouds (MC) that exhibit the characteristics of magnetic flux ropes and non-magnetic clouds (NMC) that do not. As CMEs result from eruption of magnetic flux ropes, it is important to answer why NMCs do not have the flux rope features. One claims that NMCs lose their original flux rope features due to the interactions between ICMEs or ICMEs and other large scale structures during their transit in the heliosphere. The other attributes this phenomenon to the geometric selection effect, i.e., when an ICME has its nose (flank, including leg and non-leg flanks) pass through the observing spacecraft, the MC (NMC) features will be detected along the spacecraft trajectory within the ejecta. In this Letter, we examine which explanation is more reasonable through the geometric properties of ICMEs. If the selection effect leads to different ejecta types, MCs should have narrower sheath region compared to NMCs from the statistical point of view, which is confirmed by our statistics. Besides, we find that NMCs have the similar size in solar cycles 23 and 24, and NMCs are smaller than MCs in cycle 23 but larger than MCs in cycle 24. This suggests that most NMCs have their leg flank pass through the spacecraft. Our geometric analyses support that all ICMEs should have a magnetic flux rope structure near 1 AU.
Stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions from the Sun that have no obvious low coronal signature. These CMEs are characteristically slower events, but can still be geoeffective and affect space weather at Earth. Therefore, understanding the science underpinning these eruptions will greatly improve our ability to detect and, eventually, forecast them. We present a study of two stealth CMEs analysed using advanced image processing techniques that reveal their faint signatures in observations from the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imagers onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. The different viewpoints given by these spacecraft provide the opportunity to study each eruption from above and the side contemporaneously. For each event, EUV and magnetogram observations were combined to reveal the coronal structure that erupted. For one event, the observations indicate the presence of a magnetic flux rope before the CMEs fast rise phase. We found that both events originated in active regions and are likely to be sympathetic CMEs triggered by a nearby eruption. We discuss the physical processes that occurred in the time leading up to the onset of each stealth CME and conclude that these eruptions are part of the low-energy and velocity tail of a distribution of CME events, and are not a distinct phenomenon.
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