No Arabic abstract
Graphical models express conditional independence relationships among variables. Although methods for vector-valued data are well established, functional data graphical models remain underdeveloped. We introduce a notion of conditional independence between random functions, and construct a framework for Bayesian inference of undirected, decomposable graphs in the multivariate functional data context. This framework is based on extending Markov distributions and hyper Markov laws from random variables to random processes, providing a principled alternative to naive application of multivariate methods to discretized functional data. Markov properties facilitate the composition of likelihoods and priors according to the decomposition of a graph. Our focus is on Gaussian process graphical models using orthogonal basis expansions. We propose a hyper-inverse-Wishart-process prior for the covariance kernels of the infinite coefficient sequences of the basis expansion, establish existence, uniqueness, strong hyper Markov property, and conjugacy. Stochastic search Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are developed for posterior inference, assessed through simulations, and applied to a study of brain activity and alcoholism.
Graphical models are ubiquitous tools to describe the interdependence between variables measured simultaneously such as large-scale gene or protein expression data. Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are well-established tools for probabilistic exploration of dependence structures using precision matrices and they are generated under a multivariate normal joint distribution. However, they suffer from several shortcomings since they are based on Gaussian distribution assumptions. In this article, we propose a Bayesian quantile based approach for sparse estimation of graphs. We demonstrate that the resulting graph estimation is robust to outliers and applicable under general distributional assumptions. Furthermore, we develop efficient variational Bayes approximations to scale the methods for large data sets. Our methods are applied to a novel cancer proteomics data dataset wherein multiple proteomic antibodies are simultaneously assessed on tumor samples using reverse-phase protein arrays (RPPA) technology.
Among Judea Pearls many contributions to Causality and Statistics, the graphical d-separation} criterion, the do-calculus and the mediation formula stand out. In this chapter we show that d-separation} provides direct insight into an earlier causal model originally described in terms of potential outcomes and event trees. In turn, the resulting synthesis leads to a simplification of the do-calculus that clarifies and separates the underlying concepts, and a simple counterfactual formulation of a complete identification algorithm in causal models with hidden variables.
We consider modeling, inference, and computation for analyzing multivariate binary data. We propose a new model that consists of a low dimensional latent variable component and a sparse graphical component. Our study is motivated by analysis of item response data in cognitive assessment and has applications to many disciplines where item response data are collected. Standard approaches to item response data in cognitive assessment adopt the multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models. However, human cognition is typically a complicated process and thus may not be adequately described by just a few factors. Consequently, a low-dimensional latent factor model, such as the multidimensional IRT models, is often insufficient to capture the structure of the data. The proposed model adds a sparse graphical component that captures the remaining ad hoc dependence. It reduces to a multidimensional IRT model when the graphical component becomes degenerate. Model selection and parameter estimation are carried out simultaneously through construction of a pseudo-likelihood function and properly chosen penalty terms. The convexity of the pseudo-likelihood function allows us to develop an efficient algorithm, while the penalty terms generate a low-dimensional latent component and a sparse graphical structure. Desirable theoretical properties are established under suitable regularity conditions. The method is applied to the revised Eysencks personality questionnaire, revealing its usefulness in item analysis. Simulation results are reported that show the new method works well in practical situations.
We propose a novel approach to estimating the precision matrix of multivariate Gaussian data that relies on decomposing them into a low-rank and a diagonal component. Such decompositions are very popular for modeling large covariance matrices as they admit a latent factor based representation that allows easy inference. The same is not true for precision matrices, due to the lack of computationally convenient representation, which restricts the use to low to moderate dimensional problems. We address this remarkable gap in the literature by introducing a novel latent variable representation for such decomposition for precision matrices as well. The construction leads to an efficient Gibbs sampler that scales very well to high-dimensional problems far beyond the limits of the current state-of-the-art. The ability to efficiently explore the full posterior space allows the model uncertainty to be easily assessed. The decomposition also crucially allows us to adapt sparsity inducing priors to shrink the insignificant entries of the precision matrix toward zero, making the approach adaptable to high-dimensional small-sample-size sparse settings. Exact zeros in the matrix encoding the underlying conditional independence graph are then determined via a novel posterior false discovery rate control procedure. We evaluate the methods empirical performance through synthetic experiments and illustrate its practical utility in data sets from two different application domains.
The article develops marginal models for multivariate longitudinal responses. Overall, the model consists of five regression submodels, one for the mean and four for the covariance matrix, with the latter resulting by considering various matrix decompositions. The decompositions that we employ are intuitive, easy to understand, and they do not rely on any assumptions such as the presence of an ordering among the multivariate responses. The regression submodels are semiparametric, with unknown functions represented by basis function expansions. We use spike-slap priors for the regression coefficients to achieve variable selection and function regularization, and to obtain parameter estimates that account for model uncertainty. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior sampling is developed. The simulation studies presented investigate the effects of priors on posteriors, the gains that one may have when considering multivariate longitudinal analyses instead of univariate ones, and whether these gains can counteract the negative effects of missing data. We apply the methods on a highly unbalanced longitudinal dataset with four responses observed over of period of 20 years