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Register a new userMasses, Radii, and Orbits of Small Kepler Planets: The Transition from Gaseous to Rocky Planets
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We report on the masses, sizes, and orbits of the planets orbiting 22 Kepler stars. There are 49 planet candidates around these stars, including 42 detected through transits and 7 revealed by precise Doppler measurements of the host stars. Based on an analysis of the Kepler brightness measurements, along with high-resolution imaging and spectroscopy, Doppler spectroscopy, and (for 11 stars) asteroseismology, we establish low false-positive probabilities for all of the transiting planets (41 of 42 have a false-positive probability under 1%), and we constrain their sizes and masses. Most of the transiting planets are smaller than 3X the size of Earth. For 16 planets, the Doppler signal was securely detected, providing a direct measurement of the planets mass. For the other 26 planets we provide either marginal mass measurements or upper limits to their masses and densities; in many cases we can rule out a rocky composition. We identify 6 planets with densities above 5 g/cc, suggesting a mostly rocky interior for them. Indeed, the only planets that are compatible with a purely rocky composition are smaller than ~2 R_earth. Larger planets evidently contain a larger fraction of low-density material (H, He, and H2O).
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Over the past three decades instruments on the ground and in space have discovered thousands of planets outside the solar system. These observations have given rise to an astonishingly detailed picture of the demographics of short-period planets, but are incomplete at longer periods where both the sensitivity of transit surveys and radial velocity signals plummet. Even more glaring is that the spectra of planets discovered with these indirect methods are either inaccessible (radial velocity detections) or only available for a small subclass of transiting planets with thick, clear atmospheres. Direct detection can be used to discover and characterize the atmospheres of planets at intermediate and wide separations, including non-transiting exoplanets. Today, a small number of exoplanets have been directly imaged, but they represent only a rare class of young, self-luminous super-Jovian-mass objects orbiting tens to hundreds of AU from their host stars. Atmospheric characterization of planets in the <5 AU regime, where radial velocity (RV) surveys have revealed an abundance of other worlds, is technically feasible with 30-m class apertures in combination with an advanced AO system, coronagraph, and suite of spectrometers and imagers. There is a vast range of unexplored science accessible through astrometry, photometry, and spectroscopy of rocky planets, ice giants, and gas giants. In this whitepaper we will focus on one of the most ambitious science goals --- detecting for the first time habitable-zone rocky (<1.6 R_Earth) exoplanets in reflected light around nearby M-dwarfs
We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $eta_oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $eta_oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.
We re-examine the statistical confirmation of small long-period Kepler planet candidates in light of recent improvements in our understanding of the occurrence of systematic false alarms in this regime. Using the final Data Release 25 (DR25) Kepler planet candidate catalog statistics, we find that the previously confirmed single planet system Kepler-452b no longer achieves a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis and is not considered statistically validated in agreement with the finding of Mullally et al. (2018). For multiple planet systems, we find that the planet prior enhancement for belonging to a multiple planet system is suppressed relative to previous Kepler catalogs, and we identify the multi-planet system member, Kepler-186f, no longer achieves a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis. Because of the numerous confounding factors in the data analysis process that leads to the detection and characterization of a signal, it is difficult to determine whether any one planetary candidate achieves a strict criterion for confirmation relative to systematic false alarms. For instance, when taking into account a simplified model of processing variations, the additional single planet systems Kepler-443b, Kepler-441b, Kepler-1633b, Kepler-1178b, and Kepler-1653b have a non-negligible probability of falling below a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis. The systematic false alarm hypothesis must be taken into account when employing statistical validation techniques in order to confirm planet candidates that approach the detection threshold of a survey. We encourage those performing transit searches of K2, TESS, and other similar data sets to quantify their systematic false alarms rates. Alternatively, independent photometric detection of the transit signal or radial velocity measurements can eliminate the false alarm hypothesis.
Determining which small exoplanets have stony-iron compositions is necessary for quantifying the occurrence of such planets and for understanding the physics of planet formation. Kepler-10 hosts the stony-iron world Kepler-10b (K10b), and also contains what has been reported to be the largest solid silicate-ice planet, Kepler-10c (K10c). Using 220 radial velocities (RVs), including 72 precise RVs from Keck-HIRES of which 20 are new from 2014-2015, and 17 quarters of Kepler photometry, we obtain the most complete picture of the Kepler-10 system to date. We find that K10b (Rp=1.47 Re) has mass 3.72$pm$0.42 Me and density 6.46$pm$0.73 g/cc. Modeling the interior of K10b as an iron core overlaid with a silicate mantle, we find that the iron core constitutes 0.17$pm$0.11 of the planet mass. For K10c (Rp=2.35 Re) we measure Mp=13.98$pm$1.79 Me and $rho$=5.94$pm$0.76 g/cc, significantly lower than the mass computed in Dumusque et al. (2014, 17.2$pm$1.9 Me). Internal compositional modeling reveals that at least $10%$ of the radius of Kepler-10c is a volatile envelope composed of hydrogen-helium ($0.2%$ of the mass, $16%$ of the radius) or super-ionic water ($28%$ of the mass, $29%$ of the radius). Analysis of only HIRES data yields a higher mass for K10b and a lower mass for K10c than does analysis of the HARPS-N data alone, with the mass estimates for K10c formally inconsistent by 3$sigma$. Splitting the RVs from each instrument leads to inconsistent measurements for the mass of planet c in each data set. This suggests that time-correlated noise is present and that the uncertainties in the planet masses (especially K10c) exceed our formal estimates. Transit timing variations (TTVs) of K10c indicate the likely presence of a third planet in the system, KOI-72.X. The TTVs and RVs are consistent with KOI-72.X having an orbital period of 24, 71, or 101 days, and a mass from 1-7 Me.
In the Solar system the planets compositions vary with orbital distance, with rocky planets in close orbits and lower-density gas giants in wider orbits. The detection of close-in giant planets around other stars was the first clue that this pattern is not universal, and that planets orbits can change substantially after their formation. Here we report another violation of the orbit-composition pattern: two planets orbiting the same star with orbital distances differing by only 10%, and densities differing by a factor of 8. One planet is likely a rocky `super-Earth, whereas the other is more akin to Neptune. These planets are thirty times more closely spaced--and have a larger density contrast--than any adjacent pair of planets in the Solar system.
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