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Register a new userContaining epidemic outbreaks by message-passing techniques
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The problem of targeted network immunization can be defined as the one of finding a subset of nodes in a network to immunize or vaccinate in order to minimize a tradeoff between the cost of vaccination and the final (stationary) expected infection under a given epidemic model. Although computing the expected infection is a hard computational problem, simple and efficient mean-field approximations have been put forward in the literature in recent years. The optimization problem can be recast into a constrained one in which the constraints enforce local mean-field equations describing the average stationary state of the epidemic process. For a wide class of epidemic models, including the susceptible-infected-removed and the susceptible-infected-susceptible models, we define a message-passing approach to network immunization that allows us to study the statistical properties of epidemic outbreaks in the presence of immunized nodes as well as to find (nearly) optimal immunization sets for a given choice of parameters and costs. The algorithm scales linearly with the size of the graph and it can be made efficient even on large networks. We compare its performance with topologically based heuristics, greedy methods, and simulated annealing.
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With the hit of new pandemic threats, scientific frameworks are needed to understand the unfolding of the epidemic. The use of mobile apps that are able to trace contacts is of utmost importance in order to control new infected cases and contain further propagation. Here we present a theoretical approach using both percolation and message--passing techniques, to the role of contact tracing, in mitigating an epidemic wave. We show how the increase of the app adoption level raises the value of the epidemic threshold, which is eventually maximized when high-degree nodes are preferentially targeted. Analytical results are compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations showing good agreement for both homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. These results are important to quantify the level of adoption needed for contact-tracing apps to be effective in mitigating an epidemic.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a powerful inductive bias for modelling algorithmic reasoning procedures and data structures. Their prowess was mainly demonstrated on tasks featuring Markovian dynamics, where querying any associated data structure depends only on its latest state. For many tasks of interest, however, it may be highly beneficial to support efficient data structure queries dependent on previous states. This requires tracking the data structures evolution through time, placing significant pressure on the GNNs latent representations. We introduce Persistent Message Passing (PMP), a mechanism which endows GNNs with capability of querying past state by explicitly persisting it: rather than overwriting node representations, it creates new nodes whenever required. PMP generalises out-of-distribution to more than 2x larger test inputs on dynamic temporal range queries, significantly outperforming GNNs which overwrite states.
Assessing and managing the impact of large-scale epidemics considering only the individual risk and severity of the disease is exceedingly difficult and could be extremely expensive. Economic consequences, infrastructure and service disruption, as well as the recovery speed, are just a few of the many dimensions along which to quantify the effect of an epidemic on societys fabric. Here, we extend the concept of resilience to characterize epidemics in structured populations, by defining the system-wide critical functionality that combines an individuals risk of getting the disease (disease attack rate) and the disruption to the systems functionality (human mobility deterioration). By studying both conceptual and data-driven models, we show that the integrated consideration of individual risks and societal disruptions under resilience assessment framework provides an insightful picture of how an epidemic might impact society. In particular, containment interventions intended for a straightforward reduction of the risk may have net negative impact on the system by slowing down the recovery of basic societal functions. The presented study operationalizes the resilience framework, providing a more nuanced and comprehensive approach for optimizing containment schemes and mitigation policies in the case of epidemic outbreaks.
Message-passing methods provide a powerful approach for calculating the expected size of cascades either on random networks (e.g., drawn from a configuration-model ensemble or its generalizations) asymptotically as the number $N$ of nodes becomes infinite or on specific finite-size networks. We review the message-passing approach and show how to derive it for configuration-model networks using the methods of (Dhar et al., 1997) and (Gleeson, 2008). Using this approach, we explain for such networks how to determine an analytical expression for a cascade condition, which determines whether a global cascade will occur. We extend this approach to the message-passing methods for specific finite-size networks (Shrestha and Moore, 2014; Lokhov et al., 2015), and we derive a generalized cascade condition. Throughout this chapter, we illustrate these ideas using the Watts threshold model.
The principal submatrix localization problem deals with recovering a $Ktimes K$ principal submatrix of elevated mean $mu$ in a large $ntimes n$ symmetric matrix subject to additive standard Gaussian noise. This problem serves as a prototypical example for community detection, in which the community corresponds to the support of the submatrix. The main result of this paper is that in the regime $Omega(sqrt{n}) leq K leq o(n)$, the support of the submatrix can be weakly recovered (with $o(K)$ misclassification errors on average) by an optimized message passing algorithm if $lambda = mu^2K^2/n$, the signal-to-noise ratio, exceeds $1/e$. This extends a result by Deshpande and Montanari previously obtained for $K=Theta(sqrt{n}).$ In addition, the algorithm can be extended to provide exact recovery whenever information-theoretically possible and achieve the information limit of exact recovery as long as $K geq frac{n}{log n} (frac{1}{8e} + o(1))$. The total running time of the algorithm is $O(n^2log n)$. Another version of the submatrix localization problem, known as noisy biclustering, aims to recover a $K_1times K_2$ submatrix of elevated mean $mu$ in a large $n_1times n_2$ Gaussian matrix. The optimized message passing algorithm and its analysis are adapted to the bicluster problem assuming $Omega(sqrt{n_i}) leq K_i leq o(n_i)$ and $K_1asymp K_2.$ A sharp information-theoretic condition for the weak recovery of both clusters is also identified.
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